nelson
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Post by nelson on Jul 8, 2020 11:19:48 GMT
Looks like the provisional government will have to rig it to secure a run-off. If Arce (from ousted leftist president Evo Morales's MAS party) gets over 40% of the vote and is 10 points ahead of the runner up (which will be Mesa) he is elected.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 8, 2020 11:58:46 GMT
Wonder if the same centrists/liberals will cheerlead the rigging of this one, if that does indeed happen?
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 8, 2020 17:43:59 GMT
Roughly a 100 per cent chance of an arsehole being elected.
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Jul 8, 2020 18:14:22 GMT
Apparently Arce has a Master's degree in Economics from Warwick University and lived in the UK 1996-97.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Jul 8, 2020 21:37:02 GMT
Roughly a 100 per cent chance of an arsehole being elected. Or even a arce hole |
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Jul 8, 2020 21:54:54 GMT
Roughly a 100 per cent chance of an arsehole being elected. Or even a arce hole I get the Arce = arse, but Mesa means table and not hole so the joke doesn't work (if it's supposed to be a joke). Hole is agujero. |
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Jul 8, 2020 21:56:24 GMT
I get the Arce = arse, but Mesa means table and not hole so the joke doesn't work (if it's supposed to be a joke). Hole is agujero. It was just meant to be a play on words given the assumption in the original post that Sr Arce seemed odds on favourite. Never mind. |
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Jul 8, 2020 22:37:49 GMT
I get the Arce = arse, but Mesa means table and not hole so the joke doesn't work (if it's supposed to be a joke). Hole is agujero. It was just meant to be a play on words given the assumption in the original post that Sr Arce seemed odds on favourite. Never mind. He is only favoured if there is no run-off, otherwise it's likely going to be very close (even without rigging). Mesa should have a decent chance of consolidating the anti-MAS vote (anti-indigenous, anti-left) if he makes the run-off. Mesa hails from the white elite and is running as an economically liberal centre-right candidate, regardless of what his Wiki page may say about his party and "Third Way/Social Democracy" and FT et all calling him a "centrist". There is no actual centre in Bolivian politics, there is indigenous left vs. white/mestizo centre-right and far right. Most likely the provisional government will rig the first round enough to secure a run-off (if needed) and then hope they won't have to rig the run-off so the international community, and especially OAS, can accept the outcome without too much fuss. But if the first round is rigged some violence seems inevitable, militant miners have already made it clear they expect MAS to return to power and will force Jeanine Áñez out if she doesn't leave, I doubt MAS supporters will accept a dodgy Mesa victory without a fight (they may not accept it regardless because they have no trust in the provisional government). |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 8, 2020 22:39:11 GMT
It wasn't actually a joke, I was more making the point that I wouldn't vote for any of this shower!
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Jul 8, 2020 22:40:06 GMT
It was just meant to be a play on words given the assumption in the original post that Sr Arce seemed odds on favourite. Never mind. He is only favoured if there is no run-off, otherwise it's likely going to be very close (even without rigging). Mesa should have a decent chance of consolidating the anti-MAS vote (anti-indigenous, anti-left) if he makes the run-off. Mesa hails from the white elite and is running as an economically liberal centre-right candidate, regardless of what his Wiki page may say about his party and "Third Way/Social Democracy" and FT et all calling him a "centrist". There is no actual centre in Bolivian politics, there is indigenous left vs. white/mestizo centre-right and far right. Most likely the provisional government will rig the first round enough to secure a run-off (if needed) and then hope they won't have to rig the run-off so the international community, and especially OAS, can accept the outcome without too much fuss. But if the first round is rigged some violence seems inevitable, militant miners have already made it clear they expect MAS to return to power and will force Jeanine Áñez out if she doesn't leave, I doubt MAS supporters will accept a dodgy Mesa victory without a fight (they may not accept it regardless because they have no trust in the provisional government). It was a play on words. A joke. Not a deep and meaningful political analysis FFS. Get a sense of humour. |
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Jul 8, 2020 23:25:46 GMT
It wasn't actually a joke, I was more making the point that I wouldn't vote for any of this shower! Okay, Arce was a very competent Minister of Economy and Finance and presided over strong economic growth and a rapid decrease in extreme poverty, not exactly an arsehole in my book. Mesa is a return to the past and a bit of a weathervane but still much better than the hard right "hispanic supremacists" around Áñez. |
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Post by yellowperil on Jul 9, 2020 7:50:10 GMT
He is only favoured if there is no run-off, otherwise it's likely going to be very close (even without rigging). Mesa should have a decent chance of consolidating the anti-MAS vote (anti-indigenous, anti-left) if he makes the run-off. Mesa hails from the white elite and is running as an economically liberal centre-right candidate, regardless of what his Wiki page may say about his party and "Third Way/Social Democracy" and FT et all calling him a "centrist". There is no actual centre in Bolivian politics, there is indigenous left vs. white/mestizo centre-right and far right. Most likely the provisional government will rig the first round enough to secure a run-off (if needed) and then hope they won't have to rig the run-off so the international community, and especially OAS, can accept the outcome without too much fuss. But if the first round is rigged some violence seems inevitable, militant miners have already made it clear they expect MAS to return to power and will force Jeanine Áñez out if she doesn't leave, I doubt MAS supporters will accept a dodgy Mesa victory without a fight (they may not accept it regardless because they have no trust in the provisional government). It was a play on words. A joke. Not a deep and meaningful political analysis FFS. Get a sense of humour. But many on here will go for a deep and meaningful political analysis if we can get it. And settle for the pun if we can't. |
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Jul 15, 2020 16:29:00 GMT
Now openly admitting they won't let Arce win.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 16, 2020 8:21:43 GMT
Quite incredible.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 16, 2020 10:48:28 GMT
Now openly admitting they won't let Arce win. But surely the OAS aren't going to play ball there? |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 23, 2020 7:14:58 GMT
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Jul 23, 2020 21:17:36 GMT
The Supreme Electoral Tribunal has announced they are postponing the presidential and legislative elections from 6/9 to 18/10.
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Sept 17, 2020 10:18:50 GMT
Arce right at the 40% threshold in this poll by a rigt wing think tank.
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Sept 17, 2020 10:27:56 GMT
Will they be allowed to win? I doubt the Bolivian establishment will let Morales's party anywhere near power again.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 17, 2020 11:56:24 GMT
A very good question, even if from a slightly surprising source.
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