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Post by loderingo on May 15, 2020 22:58:30 GMT
Windsor has been electing MPs on and off since the 1500s and has continuously elected Conservative MPs since 1874 (if you include the short lived Windsor and Maidenhead seat as a continuation). Windsor is unusual in that its most prominent residents can't (or at least don't vote)!
The eponymous town was known as New Windsor until the 1970s despite being settled around the castle. The town itself is a major tourist hub and iis ncluded as a most see stop on many national tours of the UK. The local council is recently in financial difficulties and is blaming it on the fact that tourists are no longer using their expensive car parks since COVID-19. The castle itself is unusual in that it has a fairly large number of residents in addition to the Royal Family with as many as 500 people living there. It claims to be both the largest inhabited castle in the world and the longest occupied palace in Europe. In 1992, the Castle famously caught fire in the Queen's "Annus Horribilis"but has since been carefully restored.
Away from the tourists, Windsor has some via high value property to the south of the town. To the west in Clewer and Dedworth, the suburbs become a bit newer and more ordinary. At the height of their local popularity in the 1990s, the LDs won all the Windsor wards but have since fallen back. The Clewer and Dedworth wards currently have some local independent councillors. Windsor has 2 railway stations. Central on the Great Western and Riverside on South Western. There was a proposal a few years back to build a massive tunnel under central Windsor to connect the 2 but it never went anywhere.
To the South East of the town is the village of Old Windsor. This votes for local independents for the council but will be solidly Tory at general elections. This ward also includes Windsor Great Park, which is what remains of the former royal hunting forest.
North of the River Thames are areas that were formerly in Buckinghamshire and transferred to Berkshire in 1974. Eton is home to the famous college that has educated many Tory prime ministers. Slightly to the west is Eton Wick, which is more down at heal and previously elected the only Labour councillor in the borough. Datchet, Horton and Wraysbury ward combines 3 villages. Flooding is a major issue in Datchet and Wraysbury. In the 2000s the man made Jubilee river was built to protect Maidenhead, Windsor and Eton from flooding. It rejoins the Thames at Datchet increasing the risk there. To the east of Horton, the seat contains a small part of the Borough of Slough. Colnbrook with Poyle is next to the M4 and M25 and was created in the mid 1990s and added to Slough Borough. Colnbrook was formerly in Bucks and Poyle in Surrey (Spelthorne).
In the south west the seats contains Ascot and the Sunnings. This area is very moneyed and voted for the Tories even in the 1990s local council nadir. Ascot is home to the famous racecourse, while Sunningdale is famous for its golf courses (Wentworth is just over the border in Surrey). The ill-fated Sunningdale agreement was signed at Sunningdale Park. The seat also includes 3 wards of the outer part of Bracknell Forest containing the rest of Ascot as well as Winkfield and Binfield. The latter two are slightly more rural but are seeing a fair amount of new housing development
The main competitors nationally have generally been the LDs but they have never really threatened to take the seat and they have struggled to squeeze the Labour vote. Even in 1997 and 2001 the Conservatives had majorities of just under 10k. Adam Afriye has been the MP since 2005 and was the Conservatives' first mixed-race MP. While his majority was trimmed in 2019, it still remains at a comfortable 20,000.
This seat will be one to keep an eye on at the forthcoming boundary review. If you really want to get up the nose of someone who lives in Windsor, point out how close they are to Slough. Indeed if you go onto the public north terrace of the castle you get a great view of Slough, which is only 2 miles away. A few years back some local residents ran an unsuccessful campaign to replace their Slough postcode with a Windsor and Maidenhead one. At the forthcoming boundary review Berkshire is likely to increase to 9 seats and Slough is already massively oversized. This means that a huge chunk of Slough Borough, possibly all of Langley, will have to be added to the Windsor seat, with it then losing the Bracknell wards. This will be very unpopular with the locals and will make the seat a lot less safe
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Windsor
May 16, 2020 7:28:21 GMT
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Post by Deleted on May 16, 2020 7:28:21 GMT
Windsor has been electing MPs on and off since the 1500s and has continuously elected Conservative MPs since 1874 (if you include the short lived Windsor and Maidenhead seat as a continuation). Windsor is unusual in that its most prominent residents can't (or at least don't vote)! The eponymous town was known as New Windsor until the 1970s despite being settled around the castle. The town itself is a major tourist hub and iis ncluded as a most see stop on many national tours of the UK. The local council is recently in financial difficulties and is blaming it on the fact that tourists are no longer using their expensive car parks since COVID-19. The castle itself is unusual in that it has a fairly large number of residents in addition to the Royal Family with as many as 500 people living there. It claims to be both the largest inhabited castle in the world and the longest occupied palace in Europe. In 1992, the Castle famously caught fire in the Queen's "Annus Horribilis"but has since been carefully restored. Away from the tourists, Windsor has some via high value property to the south of the town. To the west in Clewer and Dedworth, the suburbs become a bit newer and more ordinary. At the height of their local popularity in the 1990s, the LDs won all the Windsor wards but have since fallen back. The Clewer and Dedworth wards currently have some local independent councillors. Windsor has 2 railway stations. Central on the Great Western and Riverside on South Western. There was a proposal a few years back to build a massive tunnel under central Windsor to connect the 2 but it never went anywhere. To the South East of the town is the village of Old Windsor. This votes for local independents for the council but will be solidly Tory at general elections. This ward also includes Windsor Great Park, which is what remains of the former royal hunting forest. North of the River Thames are areas that were formerly in Buckinghamshire and transferred to Berkshire in 1974. Eton is home to the famous college that has educated many Tory prime ministers. Slightly to the west is Eton Wick, which is more down at heal and previously elected the only Labour councillor in the borough. Datchet, Horton and Wraysbury ward combines 3 villages. Flooding is a major issue in Datchet and Wraysbury. In the 2000s the man made Jubilee river was built to protect Maidenhead, Windsor and Eton from flooding. It rejoins the Thames at Datchet increasing the risk there. To the east of Horton, the seat contains a small part of the Borough of Slough. Colnbrook with Poyle is next to the M4 and M25 and was created in the mid 1990s and added to Slough Borough. Colnbrook was formerly in Bucks and Poyle in Surrey (Spelthorne). In the south west the seats contains Ascot and the Sunnings. This area is very moneyed and voted for the Tories even in the 1990s local council nadir. Ascot is home to the famous racecourse, while Sunningdale is famous for its golf courses (Wentworth is just over the border in Surrey). The ill-fated Sunningdale agreement was signed at Sunningdale Park. The seat also includes 3 wards of the outer part of Bracknell Forest containing the rest of Ascot as well as Winkfield and Binfield. The latter two are slightly more rural but are seeing a fair amount of new housing development The main competitors nationally have generally been the LDs but they have never really threatened to take the seat and they have struggled to squeeze the Labour vote. Even in 1997 and 2001 the Conservatives had majorities of just under 10k. Adam Afriye has been the MP since 2005 and was the Conservatives' first mixed-race MP. While his majority was trimmed in 2019, it still remains at a comfortable 20,000. This seat will be one to keep an eye on at the forthcoming boundary review. If you really want to get up the nose of someone who lives in Windsor, point out how close they are to Slough. Indeed if you go onto the public north terrace of the castle you get a great view of Slough, which is only 2 miles away. A few years back some local residents ran an unsuccessful campaign to replace their Slough postcode with a Windsor and Maidenhead one. At the forthcoming boundary review Berkshire is likely to increase to 9 seats and Slough is already massively oversized. This means that a huge chunk of Slough Borough, possibly all of Langley, will have to be added to the Windsor seat, with it then losing the Bracknell wards. This will be very unpopular with the locals and will make the seat a lot less safe Slough isn't that far oversized is it? It would have been within quota om 650 seats |
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Windsor
May 16, 2020 14:40:17 GMT
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on May 16, 2020 14:40:17 GMT
Windsor has been electing MPs on and off since the 1500s and has continuously elected Conservative MPs since 1874 (if you include the short lived Windsor and Maidenhead seat as a continuation). Windsor is unusual in that its most prominent residents can't (or at least don't vote)! The eponymous town was known as New Windsor until the 1970s despite being settled around the castle. The town itself is a major tourist hub and iis ncluded as a most see stop on many national tours of the UK. The local council is recently in financial difficulties and is blaming it on the fact that tourists are no longer using their expensive car parks since COVID-19. The castle itself is unusual in that it has a fairly large number of residents in addition to the Royal Family with as many as 500 people living there. It claims to be both the largest inhabited castle in the world and the longest occupied palace in Europe. In 1992, the Castle famously caught fire in the Queen's "Annus Horribilis"but has since been carefully restored. Away from the tourists, Windsor has some via high value property to the south of the town. To the west in Clewer and Dedworth, the suburbs become a bit newer and more ordinary. At the height of their local popularity in the 1990s, the LDs won all the Windsor wards but have since fallen back. The Clewer and Dedworth wards currently have some local independent councillors. Windsor has 2 railway stations. Central on the Great Western and Riverside on South Western. There was a proposal a few years back to build a massive tunnel under central Windsor to connect the 2 but it never went anywhere. To the South East of the town is the village of Old Windsor. This votes for local independents for the council but will be solidly Tory at general elections. This ward also includes Windsor Great Park, which is what remains of the former royal hunting forest. North of the River Thames are areas that were formerly in Buckinghamshire and transferred to Berkshire in 1974. Eton is home to the famous college that has educated many Tory prime ministers. Slightly to the west is Eton Wick, which is more down at heal and previously elected the only Labour councillor in the borough. Datchet, Horton and Wraysbury ward combines 3 villages. Flooding is a major issue in Datchet and Wraysbury. In the 2000s the man made Jubilee river was built to protect Maidenhead, Windsor and Eton from flooding. It rejoins the Thames at Datchet increasing the risk there. To the east of Horton, the seat contains a small part of the Borough of Slough. Colnbrook with Poyle is next to the M4 and M25 and was created in the mid 1990s and added to Slough Borough. Colnbrook was formerly in Bucks and Poyle in Surrey (Spelthorne). In the south west the seats contains Ascot and the Sunnings. This area is very moneyed and voted for the Tories even in the 1990s local council nadir. Ascot is home to the famous racecourse, while Sunningdale is famous for its golf courses (Wentworth is just over the border in Surrey). The ill-fated Sunningdale agreement was signed at Sunningdale Park. The seat also includes 3 wards of the outer part of Bracknell Forest containing the rest of Ascot as well as Winkfield and Binfield. The latter two are slightly more rural but are seeing a fair amount of new housing development The main competitors nationally have generally been the LDs but they have never really threatened to take the seat and they have struggled to squeeze the Labour vote. Even in 1997 and 2001 the Conservatives had majorities of just under 10k. Adam Afriye has been the MP since 2005 and was the Conservatives' first mixed-race MP. While his majority was trimmed in 2019, it still remains at a comfortable 20,000. This seat will be one to keep an eye on at the forthcoming boundary review. If you really want to get up the nose of someone who lives in Windsor, point out how close they are to Slough. Indeed if you go onto the public north terrace of the castle you get a great view of Slough, which is only 2 miles away. A few years back some local residents ran an unsuccessful campaign to replace their Slough postcode with a Windsor and Maidenhead one. At the forthcoming boundary review Berkshire is likely to increase to 9 seats and Slough is already massively oversized. This means that a huge chunk of Slough Borough, possibly all of Langley, will have to be added to the Windsor seat, with it then losing the Bracknell wards. This will be very unpopular with the locals and will make the seat a lot less safe As a Berkshire resident and voter, I have been watching the Berkshire boundary review closely and I think that they suggested adding Windlesham in Surrey Heath DC to Windsor to the consternation of many of its residents.Chalvey in Slough was originally proposed however,which angered local residents even more. |
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Post by Merseymike on May 16, 2020 16:13:44 GMT
I can't think of any Slough ward less suited to being part of Windsor for parliamentary purposes than Chalvey!
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Post by bjornhattan on May 16, 2020 16:52:31 GMT
I can't think of any Slough ward less suited to being part of Windsor for parliamentary purposes than Chalvey! Baylis and Stoke? It's even more working class than Chalvey, and isn't even contiguous with Windsor! But compared to either, Langley is a perfectly workable solution - the demographics there really aren't that different to Colnbrook with Poyle. It isn't a very natural fit on the ground, but neither is Windlesham. |
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Windsor
May 16, 2020 18:15:27 GMT
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on May 16, 2020 18:15:27 GMT
I can't think of any Slough ward less suited to being part of Windsor for parliamentary purposes than Chalvey! Well, it's next to Eton,which is in the seat.Out of the Langley wards,only Langley Kederminster ward has any border with the current seat except Foxborough bordering the Colnbrook and Poyle ward, which is sort a tangent away from the general area of the seat. Perhaps Upton would be a better choice because it's also close to Eton but again it's close to Slough town centre.Windlesham is much more similar demographically if that's what you're aiming for, a demographic gerrymander.But, if you're looking for unsuitable Slough BC wards for the Windsor constituency, try Britwell and Northborough  |
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Windsor
May 16, 2020 18:34:30 GMT
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on May 16, 2020 18:34:30 GMT
I can't think of any Slough ward less suited to being part of Windsor for parliamentary purposes than Chalvey! Baylis and Stoke? It's even more working class than Chalvey, and isn't even contiguous with Windsor! But compared to either, Langley is a perfectly workable solution - the demographics there really aren't that different to Colnbrook with Poyle. It isn't a very natural fit on the ground, but neither is Windlesham. Actually,Bagshot in Surrey Heath doesn't work too badly with Windsor CC. Connected to South Ascot in the seat by direct train and Sunningdale also in the seat by the A30. Also, if you walk through Swinley Forest from Bagshot, you could end up in Chavey Down, which is in Winkfield and Cranbourne ward in the seat. |
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Post by loderingo on May 16, 2020 22:35:23 GMT
The next boundary review will have different groupings to the last one as it is on 650 seats. Currently the SE is set to gain 7 seats (based on Electoral Calculus' latest numbers) as follows:
Bucks - 8 - Plus 1
Oxon, Berks + Hants - 34 - plus 2
Isle of Wight - 2 - plus 1
Surrey + W Sussex + E Sussex - 29 - plus 2
Kent - 18 - plus 1
If the commission don't want to group the counties as I have suggested then it will be individually:
Oxon - 7 plus 1
Berks - 9 plus 1
Hants - 18 - no change
Surrey - 12 - plus 1
W Sussex - 9 - plus 1
E Sussex - 8 - no change
As Slough only borders Windsor and Beaconsfield, and Bucks doesn't need a partner, I think Windsor and Langley is inevitable, however, much the locals complain.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 17, 2020 7:49:14 GMT
Foxborough was in the original (1997-2010) version of this seat. I don't suppose many of the residents of Windsor itself even noticed let alone cared very much
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on May 17, 2020 8:49:33 GMT
This looks incredibly difficult to me. Has anyone managed to get this to fit? |
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Windsor
May 17, 2020 9:26:19 GMT
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on May 17, 2020 9:26:19 GMT
This looks incredibly difficult to me. Has anyone managed to get this to fit? Seats like Meon Valley are under quota,aren't they? |
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Windsor
May 17, 2020 9:30:26 GMT
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on May 17, 2020 9:30:26 GMT
Foxborough was in the original (1997-2010) version of this seat. I don't suppose many of the residents of Windsor itself even noticed let alone cared very much Yeah,but it doesn't make sense to put it in now. It'll be right at the edge of the seat |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 17, 2020 9:39:22 GMT
This looks incredibly difficult to me. Has anyone managed to get this to fit? Using the current electorates - yes without too much difficulty Edit: forgot I've been playing with 7.5% thresholds. 5% will be a lot more challenging |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 17, 2020 9:41:55 GMT
Foxborough was in the original (1997-2010) version of this seat. I don't suppose many of the residents of Windsor itself even noticed let alone cared very much Yeah,but it doesn't make sense to put it in now. It'll be right at the edge of the seat Weird logic - some places are going to have to be at the edge of seats - lots of them actually. Are you saying it made sense before but wouldn't now? In which case what has changed? |
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Windsor
May 17, 2020 9:53:46 GMT
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on May 17, 2020 9:53:46 GMT
Yeah,but it doesn't make sense to put it in now. It'll be right at the edge of the seat Weird logic - some places are going to have to be at the edge of seats - lots of them actually. Are you saying it made sense before but wouldn't now? In which case what has changed? Maybe I didn't phrase it properly. It's only border with the current seat is with Colnbrook and Poyle,which forms a tangent off the end of the seat.Harmans Water would be bordered by 2 different wards already in the seat,Ascot and Winkfield&Cranbourne. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 17, 2020 10:15:04 GMT
Weird logic - some places are going to have to be at the edge of seats - lots of them actually. Are you saying it made sense before but wouldn't now? In which case what has changed? Maybe I didn't phrase it properly. It's only border with the current seat is with Colnbrook and Poyle,which forms a tangent off the end of the seat.Harmans Water would be bordered by 2 different wards already in the seat,Ascot and Winkfield&Cranbourne. The premise which led to the discussion (which is a reasonable one, even if doesn't turn out that way) was that Berkshire would get a 9th seat and would not cross the boundary with Buckinghamshire. That being the case, Slough would be oversized as is and the only place it can shed wards to in that case is Windsor. The consequent issue I was addressing was what the reaction of the residents of Windsor would be to that. You appear to be answering a totally different and non-existent question, namely 'if Windsor is undersized, should it take on extra voters from Slough or some random ward from Bracknell?' Even if the question did arise, your answer would be wrong |
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on May 17, 2020 10:44:33 GMT
This looks incredibly difficult to me. Has anyone managed to get this to fit? Seats like Meon Valley are under quota,aren't they? That's not the problem. It's that parts of the county militate towards seats below the county average of 70750 (1.03). So: - Portsmouth has 134,892 electors (1.96) and 14 wards. There is no combination of 8 wards that is within quota; so one will inevitably end up with two small seats
- Southampton has 148,179 electors (2.15) and 16 wards. So what one is trying to do here is lose just one ward and have a 7-ward seat and an 8-ward seat. This is actually very difficult, as the 8 smallest wards are located in a north-south band straight down the middle of the authority, with the 2nd, 3rd, and 5th largest in the west and the 1st, 4th, and 6th-8th largest in the east. I have found an absolutely ludicrous pattern that allows a 7+8 split (Coxford, Redbridge, Millbrook, Freemantle, Bargate, Woolston, and Sholing as the 7 for 66,604 (0.97), and everything else but Bitterne as the 8 at 72,002 (1.04)), but still that only takes the two Southampton constituencies up to 2.01 in total.
- The New Forest at 137,973 (2.00) has two existing seats within quota, but geographically difficult to combine with anything else to take them up to the 2.06 we need them to get up to to not fall behind.
- The existing Aldershot constituency is within quota at 67,947 (0.98) once one brings it into line with current ward boundaries in Hart district. The wards in that district are all large enough that I cannot see any way of making Aldershot larger without crossing the upper limit.
- The Basingstoke constituency is oversize and needs to lose a ward. Let's go for Basing as the most plausible option. This leaves Basingstoke at 71,402 (1.04). Sounding better, but...
- Once one takes away these eight constituencies, one is left with 722,268 electors to split between 10 constituencies. The upper bound is 72,431. Good luck.
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Windsor
May 17, 2020 10:48:20 GMT
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on May 17, 2020 10:48:20 GMT
Maybe I didn't phrase it properly. It's only border with the current seat is with Colnbrook and Poyle,which forms a tangent off the end of the seat.Harmans Water would be bordered by 2 different wards already in the seat,Ascot and Winkfield&Cranbourne. The premise which led to the discussion (which is a reasonable one, even if doesn't turn out that way) was that Berkshire would get a 9th seat and would not cross the boundary with Buckinghamshire. That being the case, Slough would be oversized as is and the only place it can shed wards to in that case is Windsor. The consequent issue I was addressing was what the reaction of the residents of Windsor would be to that. You appear to be answering a totally different and non-existent question, namely 'if Windsor is undersized, should it take on extra voters from Slough or some random ward from Bracknell?' Even if the question did arise, your answer would be wrong Oh, I thought Windsor was undersized!🤦♂️. In that case, my original idea was to transfer Taplow and Burnham from Bucks to Berks (South Bucks to Slough) and then create a new Slough East and Slough West seat,with Colnbrook&Poyle,both Eton wards,Datchet and Horton&Wraysbury transferred to Slough East with every Slough ward east of Chalvey going to Slough East and Slough West taking the rest plus Taplow and Burnham. But I realised that would be too small without either transferring bigger areas of South Bucks into Berks and Slough or,even worse,part of Maidenhead. Windsor and Langley isn't great on the ground, but it looks better than the other options. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 17, 2020 10:53:56 GMT
Seats like Meon Valley are under quota,aren't they? That's not the problem. It's that parts of the county militate towards seats below the county average of 70750 (1.03). So: - Portsmouth has 134,892 electors (1.96) and 14 wards. There is no combination of 8 wards that is within quota; so one will inevitably end up with two small seats
- Southampton has 148,179 electors (2.15) and 16 wards. So what one is trying to do here is lose just one ward and have a 7-ward seat and an 8-ward seat. This is actually very difficult, as the 8 smallest wards are located in a north-south band straight down the middle of the authority, with the 2nd, 3rd, and 5th largest in the west and the 1st, 4th, and 6th-8th largest in the east. I have found an absolutely ludicrous pattern that allows a 7+8 split (Coxford, Redbridge, Millbrook, Freemantle, Bargate, Woolston, and Sholing as the 7 for 66,604 (0.97), and everything else but Bitterne as the 8 at 72,002 (1.04)), but still that only takes the two Southampton constituencies up to 2.01 in total.
- The New Forest at 137,973 (2.00) has two existing seats within quota, but geographically difficult to combine with anything else to take them up to the 2.06 we need them to get up to to not fall behind.
- The existing Aldershot constituency is within quota at 67,947 (0.98) once one brings it into line with current ward boundaries in Hart district. The wards in that district are all large enough that I cannot see any way of making Aldershot larger without crossing the upper limit.
- The Basingstoke constituency is oversize and needs to lose a ward. Let's go for Basing as the most plausible option. This leaves Basingstoke at 71,402 (1.04). Sounding better, but...
- Once one takes away these eight constituencies, one is left with 722,268 electors to split between 10 constituencies. The upper bound is 72,431. Good luck.
Indeed. The 7.5% threshold solves all these problems (and many other elsewhere) |
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Windsor
May 17, 2020 10:58:53 GMT
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Post by Merseymike on May 17, 2020 10:58:53 GMT
The premise which led to the discussion (which is a reasonable one, even if doesn't turn out that way) was that Berkshire would get a 9th seat and would not cross the boundary with Buckinghamshire. That being the case, Slough would be oversized as is and the only place it can shed wards to in that case is Windsor. The consequent issue I was addressing was what the reaction of the residents of Windsor would be to that. You appear to be answering a totally different and non-existent question, namely 'if Windsor is undersized, should it take on extra voters from Slough or some random ward from Bracknell?' Even if the question did arise, your answer would be wrong Oh, I thought Windsor was undersized!🤦♂️. In that case, my original idea was to transfer Taplow and Burnham from Bucks to Berks (South Bucks to Slough) and then create a new Slough East and Slough West seat,with Colnbrook&Poyle,both Eton wards,Datchet and Horton&Wraysbury transferred to Slough East with every Slough ward east of Chalvey going to Slough East and Slough West taking the rest plus Taplow and Burnham. But I realised that would be too small without either transferring bigger areas of South Bucks into Berks and Slough or,even worse,part of Maidenhead. Windsor and Langley isn't great on the ground, but it looks better than the other options. Langley contains one of the few wards the Tories win in an even year so the effect would be to make Slough even safer Labour but put Labour into second place in Windsor |
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