Post by iang on Apr 23, 2020 18:08:36 GMT
To adapt the colloquialism, West Brom East is a seat of two halves. Like the other Sandwell seats, in modern times it had never gone Conservative until 2019. Unlike the other seats in the Borough, and certainly unlike its counterpart in West Bromwich West, this always looked a more reasonable prospect for a Labour defeat. From 1979 to 1992, it was genuinely marginal, with Peter Snape’s majority falling to less than a thousand in both 1983 and 1987. In the Blair years, Labour (from 2001 in the shape of Tom Watson) enjoyed comfortable majorities, but the majority fell to just below 20% in 2017, and disappeared altogether in 2019 as the Tories took the seat on a swing of 12%. This despite the total domination of Labour in Sandwell. The last time a non-Labour candidate won a seat within West Brom East was the Conservative win in Charlemont in 2011 (the UKIP win in Princes End in 2014 was the last Labour defeat in municipal elections in Sandwell anywhere, by anyone). Since then, the only threat to Labour’s council dominance have been from various divisions, deselections and defections within the Labour ruling group.
However, as stated above, this is a quite significantly divided seat. It includes the Great Barr area, one of only two fairly middle-class areas within the Borough (the other being Bearwood in Smethwick, bordering the Harborne area of Birmingham). This area to the east of West Bromwich itself adjoins north-western Birmingham, the boundary being the Scott Arms junction close to the M5/M6 motorway junction. Newton, Great Barr and Charlemont wards are all pleasant places to live, mostly made up of private semi-detached housing, with some much more affluent still, especially where Charlemont ward becomes Great Barr. There are pockets of significant deprivation too, such as the Yew Tree area of Great Barr, which adjoins Walsall, but overall, this half of the seat is noticeably different to the rest of the Borough of Sandwell. It includes areas of green space along the Sandwell Valley, and as you go out of Charlemont into West Bromwich proper, Dartmouth park and Sandwell hospital, the birthplace of Thin Lizzy vocalist Phil Lynott (and my children too, a little less worthy of a blue plaque perhaps).
The rest of the seat is essentially West Bromwich, which despite the name, is entirely within this seat (West Brom West could equally be called Wednesbury, although it wouldn’t be entirely a successor to the former seat of that name). It includes the wards of Hateley Heath, Friar Park, West Brom Central and Greets Green and Lyng (Greets Green, the western side of the town centre, was in WBW until the election of 1997). West Bromwich Central includes much affluent property, particularly around Dartmouth Park, but as a whole, this area is much more typical Labour territory, or so one would have thought until 2019. According to the council’s own figures from 2015, West Bromwich’s Income Deprivation Affecting Children Index (IDACI) and Income Deprivation Affecting Older People Index (IDAOPI) Scores are in the 30% most deprived areas in England, and two thirds of the LSOAs [areas of between 1000 and 3000 people] in West Bromwich are in the 40% most deprived LSOAs in England. This would be weighted very much to the West Bromwich half of the constituency. The constituency is 65% white, 23% Asian, and 7% black (rounded figures), with a white population therefore that is a little lower than the Sandwell average (69%), and quite a lot lower than the British average. The Asian population is substantially more Indian than Pakistani by heritage – the 2013 House of Commons research papers give the seat as 10% Sikh and 3 ½ % Hindu, both higher than the regional average, and 6% Muslim, in line with the regional average. Certainly, more Sikhs have been elected as Labour councillors in Sandwell, including the former leader of the council, Tarsem King, and the current MP for Edgbaston, Preet Gill, compared to Muslims. In other areas of the Borough, there have been occasions where Muslim candidates have won seats standing as Independents or Conservatives, which were generally presumed to have essentially been Muslim vs Sikh contests, whatever the party label, but this has not happened within WBE. Even so, the Sikh population of West Bromwich generally, and Central ward in particular, have been seen as assets electorally for Labour. Another statistic that might be relevant is that the constituency is 35% without qualifications (the 13th highest parliamentary constituency) and 15% Level 4 qualifications and above, ranking 549 in terms of Parliamentary constituencies. One supposes that if these figures could be split into West Brom / Great Barr, they would tell an even more emphatic story.
Politically, at local level, WBE has not always been as monolithic as in the last decade. The three Great Barr wards returned Conservatives back in the 70s (Sandwell was briefly controlled by the Conservatives for one year during the Wilson / Callaghan government). Then from the beginning of the 80s, the Liberals made an impact. Spearheaded by husband and wife Martyn and Sadie Smith, the Liberals first began to win Newton in 1980, then after that Great Barr. In 1981, they – just – won two of the three West Midlands County Council divisions within the Parliamentary seat in the last elections to that body. In 1983, West Brom East approached a three party marginal, with Labour and Conservative votes at 15,000 plus, and Martyn Smith in third on just over 10,000. That was to prove the peak for the Liberals / Lib Dems at parliamentary level, but they continued to expand at local level, winning Charlemont, the last Conservative ward from 1994 to 1996, and bringing the long career of Conservative councillor Vera Jones to an end, and in 2000, making inroads into the Labour ward of Hateley Heath. That was the only threat to Labour dominance in the West Brom half of the constituency, and the Liberal challenge began to fade in the early 2000s. The Conservatives regained Charlemont in 2002, and held it for the rest of the decade, the Lib Dems retained their Newton and Great Barr strongholds, and Labour continued to win the four western wards. With the passing of Martyn Smith in 2007 and the coming of the Coalition, the Lib Dem presence in Sandwell collapsed, and Labour regularly win every ward in the Borough, never mind the constituency. As stated above, the last non-Labour presence in WBE at local level was the Conservative win in Charlemont on 2011.
Which raises the question – what will happen when and if we get back to “normal” local elections? Can the Conservatives build on their Westminster triumph and start winning local council seats again here? The Lib Dems remain active in Newton, but not really anywhere else, opening Tory possibilities. Or could they challenge in some of the more working class elements of the seat? Eddie Hughes next door in Walsall North has shown that it isn’t necessarily wise to write off Tory success in West Midlands seats as inevitably only a blip…
However, as stated above, this is a quite significantly divided seat. It includes the Great Barr area, one of only two fairly middle-class areas within the Borough (the other being Bearwood in Smethwick, bordering the Harborne area of Birmingham). This area to the east of West Bromwich itself adjoins north-western Birmingham, the boundary being the Scott Arms junction close to the M5/M6 motorway junction. Newton, Great Barr and Charlemont wards are all pleasant places to live, mostly made up of private semi-detached housing, with some much more affluent still, especially where Charlemont ward becomes Great Barr. There are pockets of significant deprivation too, such as the Yew Tree area of Great Barr, which adjoins Walsall, but overall, this half of the seat is noticeably different to the rest of the Borough of Sandwell. It includes areas of green space along the Sandwell Valley, and as you go out of Charlemont into West Bromwich proper, Dartmouth park and Sandwell hospital, the birthplace of Thin Lizzy vocalist Phil Lynott (and my children too, a little less worthy of a blue plaque perhaps).
The rest of the seat is essentially West Bromwich, which despite the name, is entirely within this seat (West Brom West could equally be called Wednesbury, although it wouldn’t be entirely a successor to the former seat of that name). It includes the wards of Hateley Heath, Friar Park, West Brom Central and Greets Green and Lyng (Greets Green, the western side of the town centre, was in WBW until the election of 1997). West Bromwich Central includes much affluent property, particularly around Dartmouth Park, but as a whole, this area is much more typical Labour territory, or so one would have thought until 2019. According to the council’s own figures from 2015, West Bromwich’s Income Deprivation Affecting Children Index (IDACI) and Income Deprivation Affecting Older People Index (IDAOPI) Scores are in the 30% most deprived areas in England, and two thirds of the LSOAs [areas of between 1000 and 3000 people] in West Bromwich are in the 40% most deprived LSOAs in England. This would be weighted very much to the West Bromwich half of the constituency. The constituency is 65% white, 23% Asian, and 7% black (rounded figures), with a white population therefore that is a little lower than the Sandwell average (69%), and quite a lot lower than the British average. The Asian population is substantially more Indian than Pakistani by heritage – the 2013 House of Commons research papers give the seat as 10% Sikh and 3 ½ % Hindu, both higher than the regional average, and 6% Muslim, in line with the regional average. Certainly, more Sikhs have been elected as Labour councillors in Sandwell, including the former leader of the council, Tarsem King, and the current MP for Edgbaston, Preet Gill, compared to Muslims. In other areas of the Borough, there have been occasions where Muslim candidates have won seats standing as Independents or Conservatives, which were generally presumed to have essentially been Muslim vs Sikh contests, whatever the party label, but this has not happened within WBE. Even so, the Sikh population of West Bromwich generally, and Central ward in particular, have been seen as assets electorally for Labour. Another statistic that might be relevant is that the constituency is 35% without qualifications (the 13th highest parliamentary constituency) and 15% Level 4 qualifications and above, ranking 549 in terms of Parliamentary constituencies. One supposes that if these figures could be split into West Brom / Great Barr, they would tell an even more emphatic story.
Politically, at local level, WBE has not always been as monolithic as in the last decade. The three Great Barr wards returned Conservatives back in the 70s (Sandwell was briefly controlled by the Conservatives for one year during the Wilson / Callaghan government). Then from the beginning of the 80s, the Liberals made an impact. Spearheaded by husband and wife Martyn and Sadie Smith, the Liberals first began to win Newton in 1980, then after that Great Barr. In 1981, they – just – won two of the three West Midlands County Council divisions within the Parliamentary seat in the last elections to that body. In 1983, West Brom East approached a three party marginal, with Labour and Conservative votes at 15,000 plus, and Martyn Smith in third on just over 10,000. That was to prove the peak for the Liberals / Lib Dems at parliamentary level, but they continued to expand at local level, winning Charlemont, the last Conservative ward from 1994 to 1996, and bringing the long career of Conservative councillor Vera Jones to an end, and in 2000, making inroads into the Labour ward of Hateley Heath. That was the only threat to Labour dominance in the West Brom half of the constituency, and the Liberal challenge began to fade in the early 2000s. The Conservatives regained Charlemont in 2002, and held it for the rest of the decade, the Lib Dems retained their Newton and Great Barr strongholds, and Labour continued to win the four western wards. With the passing of Martyn Smith in 2007 and the coming of the Coalition, the Lib Dem presence in Sandwell collapsed, and Labour regularly win every ward in the Borough, never mind the constituency. As stated above, the last non-Labour presence in WBE at local level was the Conservative win in Charlemont on 2011.
Which raises the question – what will happen when and if we get back to “normal” local elections? Can the Conservatives build on their Westminster triumph and start winning local council seats again here? The Lib Dems remain active in Newton, but not really anywhere else, opening Tory possibilities. Or could they challenge in some of the more working class elements of the seat? Eddie Hughes next door in Walsall North has shown that it isn’t necessarily wise to write off Tory success in West Midlands seats as inevitably only a blip…
