Merseymike
Independent
Posts: 40,460
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Post by Merseymike on Apr 25, 2020 13:19:37 GMT
I'm not really sure if you can use the results in Walsall North or Mansfield or wherever as 'proof' of anything, given that the 2019 was, well, a landslide. One of the things people are going to have to get used to is that the future is uncertain and that voting patterns are nothing like as stable as they were when they started following elections, and that they aren't about to suddenly return to stability. It is possible that the Conservatives will win here again next time; it is also possible that the constituency will see one of the worst defeats for an incumbent standing again for a major party in history. None of us know. Which, I think, is why if people are going to do these profiles, they are better off describing the nature of the constituency and all the little tendencies in it, rather than try to predict the future. While I agree with you with regard to these type of seats, the last election also displayed some continuing stability in certain areas too. I've just finished the 5 Liverpool seats and what characterises them all is that voting patterns there appear very stable indeed - and there are some equally stable Tory fiefdoms too, where its very unlikely that there will be a change of representation. This does suggest a much more varied selection of results overall, with seats not necessarily reflecting their social class makeup in their choice of party, but other factors also coming into play |
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iang
Lib Dem
Posts: 1,815
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Post by iang on Apr 25, 2020 15:56:19 GMT
I'm not really sure if you can use the results in Walsall North or Mansfield or wherever as 'proof' of anything, given that the 2019 was, well, a landslide. One of the things people are going to have to get used to is that the future is uncertain and that voting patterns are nothing like as stable as they were when they started following elections, and that they aren't about to suddenly return to stability. It is possible that the Conservatives will win here again next time; it is also possible that the constituency will see one of the worst defeats for an incumbent standing again for a major party in history. None of us know. Which, I think, is why if people are going to do these profiles, they are better off describing the nature of the constituency and all the little tendencies in it, rather than try to predict the future. I don't think I can be accused of trying to predict the future by concluding with some rhetorical questions |
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Post by Robert Waller on Apr 30, 2021 12:41:54 GMT
2011 Census
Age 65+ 16.5% 342/650
Owner-occupied 58.2% 504/650
Private rented 11.6% 484/650
Social rented 27.7% 75/650
White 68.1% 582/650
Black 6.2% 82/650
Asian 20.6% 44/650
Sikh 10.0% 8/650
Managerial & professional 19.1 %
Routine & Semi-routine 36.0%
Degree level 15.3% 624/650
No qualifications 35.3% 20/650
Students 7.7 % 245 /650
2021 Census
Owner occupied 55.2% 457/573
Private rented 17.4% 328/573
Social rented 27.4% 49/573
White 54.1%
Black 8.9%
Asian 28.5%
Sikh 14.1% 5/650
Managerial & professional 20.0% 554/573
Routine & Semi-routine 32.4% 36/573
Degree level 20.6% 530/573
No qualifications 28.8% 9/573
General Election 2019: West Bromwich East
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Nicola Richards 16,804 46.7 +8.5
Labour Ibrahim Dogus 15,211 42.3 -15.7
Brexit Party Christian Lucas 1,475 4.1
Liberal Democrats Andy Graham 1,313 3.6 +2.0
Green Mark Redding 627 1.7 +0.3
Independent George Galloway 489 1.4
Yeshua Colin Rankine 56 0.2
C Majority 1,593 4.4
Turnout 35,975 57.9 -3.4
Conservative gain from Labour
Swing 12.1 Lab to C
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 5, 2022 10:54:33 GMT
The West Midlands region is losing two seats in total and both abolished seats are effectively within the broadly defined Black Country area. Essentially the Sandwell/Dudley pairing goes from 7 seats to 6 and Walsall and Wolverhampton are paired with 5 seats replacing the current 6. The initial proposals for this seat were relatively modest in terms of the amount of territory and number of voters being moved, but significant in their politcal impact. The single ward of St Paul's was to be added and the name West Bromwich East retained even though it still includes the whole of the town of West Bromwich. St Paul's is a heavily non-White ward and massively Labour and the effect of this small change would have been to easily wipe out the Conservative majority here. The revised proposals here are much more sweeping and frankly weird yet at the same time the partisan impact is lower. St Paul's is retained in Warley (renamed Smethwick) and the Friar Park and Hateley Heath wards in the North West of the town are removed to be replaced with the Oldbury, Rowley and Tividale wards in the South West of Sandwell, creating a very elongated seat. Hateley Heath is an integral part of West Bromwich but just as the seat no longer includes all of West Bromwich (and includes much territory well outside the town) the name is changed to plain 'West Bromwich'. It is not clear if these revised plans will survive into the final recommendations as they do seem the most obviously unsatisfactory in this area. Despite the large scale transfer of voters in and out of this seat, the partisan effects are fairly neutral. Hateley Heath and Friar Park were probably about neck and neck in 2019 and the incoming wards margianally Conservative. So a small increase in the notional Conservative majority but the seat remains highly vulnerable Notional result 2019 on the proposed new boundaries - West Bromwich | Con | 20239 | 48.4% | | Lab | 17500 | 41.9% | | LD | 1450 | 3.5% | | BxP | 1396 | 3.3% | | Grn | 765 | 1.8% | | Oth | 460 | 1.1% |
| | | | Majority | 2739 | 6.6% |
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