Croydon North

[The Bishop]

Apr 23, 2020 11:11:42 GMT johnloony said:

Croydon North is one of the safest Labour constituencies in the outer London boroughs, and is demographically an extension of the inner London boroughs to the north, such as Lambeth and Southwark. Until the 1980s, Croydon North was a marginal constituency, but substantial demographic change over a number of years - including a substantial increase in the BME population – has gradually changed it to become a very safe Labour constituency. The population is a mixture of approximately one third white, one third black and a quarter Asian. To the west of the constituency is the London Road area, with lots of Asian ethnic shops and food stores. In the heart of the constituency is Thornton Heath, which has a high proportion of black people. At the northern fringe of the constituency, up on the hills of Norbury and Upper Norwood, are more comfortable middle-class areas, which consistently elected Conservative councillors until the early 1990s. Even those wards have now gradually become safe for the Labour Party in local elections, even at the worst of times. All of the wards in Croydon North constituency will continue to elect Labour councillors with big majorities for the foreseeable future, and the constituency itself will continue to be a very safe Labour seat.

Its predecessor seats were marginal, but generally in the Tories favour. Presumably most of the old Croydon NW (with its famous 1981 byelection) went into this seat?

[conservativeestimate]

Fun fact: Former Speaker of the House of Commons, Bernard Weatheril, represented Croydon North East. Interestingly, Labour and the SDP opposed him in 1987.

[johnloony]

Apr 23, 2020 12:08:00 GMT The Bishop said:

Apr 23, 2020 11:11:42 GMT johnloony said:

Croydon North is one of the safest Labour constituencies in the outer London boroughs, and is demographically an extension of the inner London boroughs to the north, such as Lambeth and Southwark. Until the 1980s, Croydon North was a marginal constituency, but substantial demographic change over a number of years - including a substantial increase in the BME population – has gradually changed it to become a very safe Labour constituency. The population is a mixture of approximately one third white, one third black and a quarter Asian. To the west of the constituency is the London Road area, with lots of Asian ethnic shops and food stores. In the heart of the constituency is Thornton Heath, which has a high proportion of black people. At the northern fringe of the constituency, up on the hills of Norbury and Upper Norwood, are more comfortable middle-class areas, which consistently elected Conservative councillors until the early 1990s. Even those wards have now gradually become safe for the Labour Party in local elections, even at the worst of times. All of the wards in Croydon North constituency will continue to elect Labour councillors with big majorities for the foreseeable future, and the constituency itself will continue to be a very safe Labour seat.

Its predecessor seats were marginal, but generally in the Tories favour. Presumably most of the old Croydon NW (with its famous 1981 byelection) went into this seat?

Yes - Croydon North contains the whole of the old Croydon NW, and just under half of the old Croydon NE.

[greenhert]

It is hard to believe that this seat was notionally Conservative (based on 1992 election results) upon its creation for the 1997 general election!

[londonseal80]

Apr 23, 2020 13:26:46 GMT greenhert said:

It is hard to believe that this seat was notionally Conservative (based on 1992 election results) upon its creation for the 1997 general election!

Labour were also wiped out here in 1982 and 1968 locals with Thornton Heath being a RA stronghold. That same ward in the two locals pre-coalition was actually just starting to get competitive for the Lib Dem’s anyone with local knowledge know what was the reason behind this?

[conservativeestimate]

Apr 23, 2020 14:45:52 GMT @barnabymarder said:

John Major campaigned here in 1997 based on the notionals but it was clear he was wasting his time.

My friend Walter Wolfgang, who died last year, was the Labour candidate for Croydon NE in 1959 - the only time he stood for parliament. However, I still have one friend, in fact younger than Walter, who was a candidate in parliamentary elections in the 1950s.

John Major also campaigned in Luton South in 1997 iirc.

[Pete Whitehead]

Graham Bright had been John Major's PPS. Also Luton South had been the scene of the 'iconic' soap box in 1992, so there was probably sentimental reasons for campaigning there more than a strong belief the seat would be held

[martinwhelton]

The gain in Croydon North West back in 1992 by Labour had been assisted by the inclusion of Broad Green in 1983, and Upper Norwood moved to Croydon North East. It was expanded by taking in Upper Norwood and South Norwood(which went Labour for the first time in 1994) and Thornton Heath to form the current Croydon North. Although notionally Tory in 1992 it was only by 160 votes. If the old Croydon North East seat still existed it would be by now a very safe Labour seat.

[johnloony]

Apr 23, 2020 18:07:39 GMT londonseal80 said:

Apr 23, 2020 13:26:46 GMT greenhert said:

It is hard to believe that this seat was notionally Conservative (based on 1992 election results) upon its creation for the 1997 general election!

Labour were also wiped out here in 1982 and 1968 locals with Thornton Heath being a RA stronghold. That same ward in the two locals pre-coalition was actually just starting to get competitive for the Lib Dem’s anyone with local knowledge know what was the reason behind this?

Only that the Lib Dems targeted Thornton Heath for one particular local election, for no particular reason as far as I can tell. It was a blip, not a trend.

[conservativeestimate]

Funnily enough the Conservatives got Councillors in South and Upper Norwood in 2006 but not Norbury.

[johnloony]

Apr 24, 2020 17:17:50 GMT conservativeestimate said:

Funnily enough the Conservatives got Councillors in South and Upper Norwood in 2006 but not Norbury.

That was partly because Labour was heavily defending Norbury (thinking it was the most vulnerable marginal ward (which it was)) and did not make enough effort in U.N. and S.N. (thinking they were a bit safer (which they were)) whereas more efficient canvassing data told the Conservative Party that Norbury was out of reach and that U.N. and S.N. were worth trying. In other words, Labour was judging by previous election results, and Conservatives had more up-to-date detailed and accurate canvassing returns.

[Benjamin]

Apr 24, 2020 18:29:01 GMT johnloony said:

Apr 24, 2020 17:17:50 GMT conservativeestimate said:

Funnily enough the Conservatives got Councillors in South and Upper Norwood in 2006 but not Norbury.

That was partly because Labour was heavily defending Norbury (thinking it was the most vulnerable marginal ward (which it was)) and did not make enough effort in U.N. and S.N. (thinking they were a bit safer (which they were)) whereas more efficient canvassing data told the Conservative Party that Norbury was out of reach and that U.N. and S.N. were worth trying. In other words, Labour was judging by previous election results, and Conservatives had more up-to-date detailed and accurate canvassing returns.

Also worth noting that the Conservatives got councillors elected in those wards with roughly a third of the vote, that their vote share didn't increase by all that much, that the Greens did rather better in both wards in 2006 than either previously or since, and that the Liberal Democrats didn't stand in Upper Norwood that year.

That said, as somebody who has recently moved to the old South Norwood ward, I do find the idea that it had Conservative councillors as recently as a decade ago a bit surreal.

[londonseal80]

Apr 24, 2020 17:17:50 GMT conservativeestimate said:

Funnily enough the Conservatives got Councillors in South and Upper Norwood in 2006 but not Norbury.

Not only that but both West Thornton and Bensham Manor were closer to being lost to the Conservatives than Norbury.

In neighbouring Merton St Helier and Ravensbury were marginally held by Labour. Though Longthornton which borders Norbury was marginal in 2002 but swing against the trend towards Labour in 2006.

[Pete Whitehead]

Apr 26, 2020 8:05:50 GMT londonseal80 said:

Apr 24, 2020 17:17:50 GMT conservativeestimate said:

Funnily enough the Conservatives got Councillors in South and Upper Norwood in 2006 but not Norbury.

Not only that but both West Thornton and Bensham Manor were closer to being lost to the Conservatives than Norbury.

In neighbouring Merton St Helier and Ravensbury were marginally held by Labour. Though Longthornton which borders Norbury was marginal in 2002 but swing against the trend towards Labour in 2006.

I might be generalising a bit, but my impression is that South and Upper Norwood contain a lot of Edwardian villas and are the type of areas that started to deteriorate a bit in the 60s and 70s but saw subsequent gentrification from the 1990s. Norbury on the other hand contains much of the kind of inter-war suburbia which was strongly Conservative up to and including the 1980s but rapidly declined thereafter. There is a similar pattern in Streatham South (also largely inter-war in contrast with the wards further north) which transformed itself quite rapidly from the safest Conservative ward in Streatham to the safest Labour ward. As you say, Longthornton has followed a similar trajectory. This can also be seen in eg. Brent where Brondesbury has become a better Conservative area again compared with say Fryent. Of course the gentrification of areas like this is of only limited benefit to the Conservatives because it typically involves a lot of liberal metropolitan elitists like Benjamin , but at the margins it would have helped them in good years like 2006 and 2008, whereas areas like Norbury were continuing their descent down the social scale.

[Benjamin]

I'm flattered by the suggestion that my presence is raising the social status of the constituency.

[AJS]

Apr 26, 2020 19:35:37 GMT Benjamin said:

I'm flattered by the suggestion that my presence is raising the social status of the constituency.

Every little helps.

[johnloony]

Apr 24, 2020 19:11:32 GMT Benjamin said:

Apr 24, 2020 18:29:01 GMT johnloony said:

That was partly because Labour was heavily defending Norbury (thinking it was the most vulnerable marginal ward (which it was)) and did not make enough effort in U.N. and S.N. (thinking they were a bit safer (which they were)) whereas more efficient canvassing data told the Conservative Party that Norbury was out of reach and that U.N. and S.N. were worth trying. In other words, Labour was judging by previous election results, and Conservatives had more up-to-date detailed and accurate canvassing returns.

Also worth noting that the Conservatives got councillors elected in those wards with roughly a third of the vote, that their vote share didn't increase by all that much, that the Greens did rather better in both wards in 2006 than either previously or since, and that the Liberal Democrats didn't stand in Upper Norwood that year.

That said, as somebody who has recently moved to the old South Norwood ward, I do find the idea that it had Conservative councillors as recently as a decade ago a bit surreal.

Upper Norwood and South Norwood wards were safe Conservative until the 1980s, and only even marginal from the 1980s onwards. When Labour won a majority in Croydon Council for the first time in 1994, they did so by gaining U.N., S.N., and Norbury wards, and some of the Conservative councillors who lost their seats had served for decades.