Finchley & Golders Green

[iain]

A constituency of pre-war suburbia on the outer edge of London, Finchley & Golders Green was created for the 1997 election, with small but significant boundary changes coming into effect in 2010. Finchley is probably best know as the former seat of former-PM Margaret Thatcher, while Golders Green is famous for its large Jewish community.

Unsurprisingly, then, this constituency has the highest proportion of Jewish voters of any in the country. While this is clearly psephologically important, its impact can be, and frequently is, overplayed. Jewish voters make up just over 20% of the electorate, compared with around 9% who are Muslim and 5% who are Hindu. The seat is also relatively ethnically diverse, as 17% of the electorate are Asian and 6% black.

What makes the Jewish vote more interesting is that, unlike most minorities, it does not vote en masse for the Labour Party - if anything, it is the opposite. Nowadays the vast majority of Jewish voters back the Conservatives, exacerbated in recent years by Labour’s anti-semitism crisis. The Jewish vote in this seat is clustered in three very Conservative wards - Golders Green, Garden Suburb and Finchley Church End, while a fourth, more marginal, ward - Child’s Hill - also has a significant community.

It would be a mistake, however, to put Conservative strength in these areas purely down to the Jewish population. They are extremely wealthy, and Labour never got a look in even in the 1990s, when they performed much better in the Jewish community. After a walk around Hampstead Garden Suburb you do not need to know the ethnicity of voters to guess the dominant political party.

Even the areas of Labour strength are generally middle class. The ward of West Finchley in particular is very suburban (though many large terraces and semi-detached houses have now been converted into apartments), while Woodhouse has more flats and smaller terraces. The main areas of council housing are in East Finchley (where 20% of households are socially rented), including the Strawberry Vale estate, and in the Brent Cross / Cricklewood areas of Golders Green and Child’s Hill, which tend to be outvoted by the rest of their respective wards.

Though there is little social housing in the seat, particularly for a London constituency, part of the Conservative weakness here can probably be put down to the high number of private renters, who make up a third of households. The constituency also has a lot of graduates (around half of the working age population), a group who are disproportionately likely to have voted ‘Remain’, and therefore have turned against the Conservatives in recent years. 69% of voters backed ‘Remain’ at the referendum, the fourth highest score for any currently Conservative-held seat.

Both the predecessor constituencies, Hendon South and Finchley, voted reliably Conservative, though nowadays Finchley would be a semi-safe Labour seat. The current seat was surprisingly won by Labour in 1997, and was held narrowly by Rudi Vis until 2010 - though the minor boundary changes prior to that election made the seat notionally Conservative before any votes were cast. Since taking the seat, current MP Mike Freer has had to contend with London’s rapid pro-Labour trend and has not managed to make Finchley & Golders Green safe, clinging on by just 1,600 votes in 2017.

Last year he faced a new threat, as the combination of a high ‘Remain’ vote and a celebrity Jewish candidate (ex-Labour MP Luciana Berger) caused the Liberal Democrats to target the seat for the first time. In the event, the drip of anti-semitism stories during the campaign pushing wealthier Jewish voters towards the perceived safety of the Conservatives combined with the failure to effectively squeeze the Labour vote (always likely to be a tall order when coming from a very distant third) meant Freer held on relatively comfortably. Should this seat survive the boundary review (rather questionable in itself) it would now appear to be a prime Liberal Democrat target. However, if Berger chooses not to stand next time then the lack of Liberal Democrat history in the area may make it more likely that Finchley and Golders Green reverts to being a Labour-Conservative battle in future.

[iain]

Apr 11, 2020 19:32:29 GMT @barnabymarder said:

Very good for the most part Iain. The only thing I'd question is the final sentence. It's perfectly possible that, if she is not tempted back to the Labour Party (which would take some time as she stood against the party in the general election, but is not impossible), Luciana Berger might run here again, as it's where she comes from. That's one of the reasons she was touted as a candidate here in the first place.

Fair point - have edited accordingly.

[Peter Wilkinson]

I was just starting to look at doing Finchley and Golders Green myself - it's good to see that you have saved me the trouble, with an entry that approaches things from a somewhat different direction than I would have done but is probably at least as good as what I would have produced. Though I will at least check for anything that isn't there but I think should be, or any errors of fact. Actually, there's one thing I've already spotted...

Apr 11, 2020 17:36:44 GMT iain said:

However, with Berger presumably not standing next time and the lack of Liberal Democrat history in the area, it may be more likely that Finchley and Golders Green reverts to being a Labour-Conservative battle in future.

You seem to have missed two apparently separate episodes, one almost certainly too far back historically (and Liberal rather than Liberal Democrat) and the other more recent and quite lengthy but also rather localised. I doubt whether either needs more than a brief mention (and possibly not even that) - in other words, the rest of this, and the next two paragraphs in particular, are background information for use in at most a highly selective form rather than material for direct incorporation into the entry.

The earlier one peaked in the early 1960s, though it had started a few years before and took a while to disappear afterwards. It seems to have started when some fairly senior Finchley Conservatives were apparently implicated in blackballing Jews wishing to join one of the local golf clubs. The reaction within the local Jewish community seems to have resulted in something of a switch to the Liberal Party, which first gained seats on Finchley Borough Council in 1957 and gained more year by year until, at the final elections to the Borough Council in 1963, the Liberals gained a majority. Meanwhile, the Liberal vote in Finchley constituency (which also included Friern Barnet) increased strongly in 1959, the first time Margaret Thatcher was elected, though not by quite enough to take second place from Labour. Meanwhile, Thatcher made it quite clear to her local party membership that she regarded anti-Jewish discrimination as quite unacceptable and to build links with the local Jewish community. This perhaps took a while to have an effect: at the first Barnet London Borough elections in 1964, the Liberals got six of the twelve seats from the area of the now former Finchley council (but none anywhere else in the borough), and in the general election later that year, John Pardoe got a strong second place against Thatcher, reducing her majority by nearly half. That, however, was the end of the Liberal surge. In the 1966 general election, Thatcher's vote remained steady and the Labour candidate scraped back into second place; and in the next Barnet council elections, in the Conservative landslide year of 1968 and with completely redrawn ward boundaries, the Liberals only retained one seat. By the 1971 council elections, the Liberals were propping up the bottom of the ballot in all Finchley wards, with Labour starting to win seats. The 1970 general election saw the Liberal vote slump back to the level it had been at in the mid-1950s; there was a slight Liberal resurgence in the rather smaller Finchley constituency (parts had been transferred to Chipping Barnet and Hendon South, based on the redrawn wards of 1968) in February 1974, but this had collapsed again by the October 1974 election. From then on, including through the 1980s, Labour held onto a clear second place in Finchley in both parliamentary and council elections - by 1986 managing to win three of the five Finchley wards, East Finchley, Woodhouse and St. Paul's (the rough predecessor of West Finchley). Paradoxically, the one place where the 1960s Liberal surge in Finchley may not have entirely died was the bit transferred into Hendon South in 1974 - this was now part of Garden Suburb ward, where the Liberals and then the Liberal Democrats remained the main challengers to the Conservatives in most council elections until 2010.

Meanwhile, in Hendon South, Monroe Palmer, who had been a perennial Liberal candidate in Child's Hill ward at council elections since 1968, was also the Liberal candidate in the 1979, 1983 and 1987 general elections, taking second place to the Conservatives in both of the latter two. Child's Hill had been a Conservative-leaning Conservative/Labour marginal until the mid-1970s, but Palmer and two colleagues finally took Child's Hill for the Liberal Democrats in 1986. Palmer and one of his colleagues stood down in 1994, the other colleague, Jack Cohen, continuing, but all three seats were retained by the Liberal Democrats, one of the replacements being Palmer's wife Suzette. Monroe Palmer stood again for Child's Hill in 1998, and the two Palmers and Cohen all remained councillors for Child's Hill until 2014, when the Palmers (now Lord and Lady Palmer of Child's Hill) stood down. In the 2014 election, the Conservatives finally took back two of the three seats after 28 years, Cohen narrowly holding onto the third but with his two colleagues behind not only the other Conservative but all the Labour candidates as well. Cohen and Suzette Palmer both stood again in 2018 but this time, despite continuing strong personal votes, coming well behind all the Conservative and Labour candidates in a tightly fought campaign - between Conservative and Labour. The Liberal Democrat vote had been thoroughly squeezed.

After all that, though, the Conservatives still could not win that third seat in Child's Hill - it was won by Labour, by two votes in an election dominated by the anti-semitism issue and in which Labour lost six seats elsewhere in the borough. None of those lost seats, by the way, were in Finchley and Golders Green, though that may mainly have to do with the sheer size of Labour majorities in its by now traditional Finchley and Golders Green wards - four were in Hendon, in wards with Jewish communities not much larger than Child's Hill, and two in Chipping Barnet, in wards with far smaller Jewish communities but already marginal enough that single seats could change hands on only minor shifts in the vote. By the way, the "drip of anti-semitism stories during the campaign" technique was one that the Conservatives had already successfully trialled during the 2018 Barnet council election campaign - at least one Liberal Democrat candidate with a blog was publicly complaining immediately after the campaign about how this had been used to drive votes away not just from Labour but also from all other parties except the Conservatives, on the grounds that only the Conservatives could be trusted not to go into coalition with Labour.

Anne Clarke, the successful Labour candidate in Child's Hill is, by the way, now Labour's prospective candidate for the London Assembly seat for Barnet and Camden, whenever the GLA elections now take place. I doubt, though, that even if Finchley and Golders Green remains in something close to its present form, it will be feasible to predict whether the Liberal Democrats will be able to build on their 2019 result in future general elections or whether the seat will switch back to a Labour-Conservative marginal (or let a fairly evenly-matched split opposition allow the Conservatives to comfortably retain the seat) until we see the results of the GLA and borough council elections over the next two years (COVID-19 permitting).

[iang]

The 1964 Nuffield Election study (Butler & King) did one of its constituency spotlights on Finchley - page 241 onwards in my edition. John Pardoe went off to Cornwall North and gained it in 1966, and sat for the seat until he lost it in 1979

[Merseymike]

Interesting. I knew one of the former Liberal Democrat councillors for Childs Hill. Not Jewish despite the name - John Abrams. Later moved to Stockport and did a term there as councillor for Davenport and Cale Green.
Ended up a rampant Brexiteerand joined the new SDP, though now calls himself a Liberal Nationalist and is very anti-China

[martinwhelton]

This is a seat where the Liberal Democrats may well have difficulty sustaining their base and were boosted by having Luciana Berger as candidate. If Labour manage to start rebuilding trust with the Jewish community after the disastrous past few years under Corbyn it will also help. Labour have a strong base in the Finchley part and should also win the newly created Cricklewood ward which will be fought for the first time in 2022. Parliamentary boundary changes here should be relatively minor now the decision has been taken to retain 650 seats

[yellowperil]

Apr 24, 2020 5:30:04 GMT martinwhelton said:

This is a seat where the Liberal Democrats may well have difficulty sustaining their base and were boosted by having Luciana Berger as candidate. If Labour manage to start rebuilding trust with the Jewish community after the disastrous past few years under Corbyn it will also help. Labour have a string base in the Finchley part and should also win the newly created Cricklewood ward which will be fought for the first time in 2022. Parliamentary boundary changes here should be relatively minor now the decision has been taken to retain 650 seats

A string base? maybe a letter came out  wrong there - should have been a string bass?

[Merseymike]

Apr 24, 2020 5:30:04 GMT martinwhelton said:

This is a seat where the Liberal Democrats may well have difficulty sustaining their base and were boosted by having Luciana Berger as candidate. If Labour manage to start rebuilding trust with the Jewish community after the disastrous past few years under Corbyn it will also help. Labour have a strong base in the Finchley part and should also win the newly created Cricklewood ward which will be fought for the first time in 2022. Parliamentary boundary changes here should be relatively minor now the decision has been taken to retain 650 seats

While I agree that the LibDem result may not be sustained, the voting pattern of the Jewish population is firmly in the Conservative camp and has been moving that way for some time - and even Starmer isn't foolish enough to go full-on Zionist, given the impact that would make on a far more important section of voters for Labour.
In CL&WS, Kensington and this seat, the LibDems were able to make capital by having a 'celebrity' candidate who gained a great deal of attention. That won't be repeated, and if Labour are to retake this seat they will have to do it without the votes of the Jewish population, who will stick to the Tories as they did in 2019. However, there may be voters who will be less susceptible to the claims that the LibDems are 'winning here' without Berger as candidate -or for that matter, if she stands again, assuming Labour haven't become suitably centrist and Zionist to activate her brain cell and see a re-defection!

[iain]

Apr 24, 2020 5:30:04 GMT martinwhelton said:

This is a seat where the Liberal Democrats may well have difficulty sustaining their base and were boosted by having Luciana Berger as candidate. If Labour manage to start rebuilding trust with the Jewish community after the disastrous past few years under Corbyn it will also help. Labour have a strong base in the Finchley part and should also win the newly created Cricklewood ward which will be fought for the first time in 2022. Parliamentary boundary changes here should be relatively minor now the decision has been taken to retain 650 seats

Actually, going off 2019 electorates, Barnet has become too big for 3 seats, and may well see some big changes.

[Merseymike]

Apr 24, 2020 8:28:41 GMT @barnabymarder said:

Raving and totally incorrect terminology.

I don't actually care what you think any more, given that I won't be voting for your party I see no need to self-censor for fear of the witchhunters.

[Deleted]

This is not why these forums were created.

[Peter Wilkinson]

As advice for anyone inclined to suggest that people belonging to certain groups will always vote for the same party all the time - they don't always even seem to vote for the same party at the same time (this is a small extract from a larger personal project - all figures relate to votes in the 2012 Greater London Authority elections excluding postal ballots (which were not counted by ward), GLC stands for London Assembly constituency member ballot, GLL for London Assembly party list ballot, GLM for Greater London mayoral ballot. The Conservative candidate for the local London Assembly constituency, Barnet and Camden, was Brian Coleman, and the Labour candidate was Andrew Dismore. The Conservative candidate for Greater London Mayor was Boris Johnson, and the Labour candidate was Ken Livingstone.):

Ward	ElecType	Conservative	Labour	Lib Dem	Green	Other
Childs Hill	GLC	34.9%	40.4%	12.6%	8.9%	3.3%
	GLL	40.6%	33.4%	9.6%	8.4%	8.0%
	GLM	55.0%	31.0%	4.5%	3.9%	5.5%
East Finchley	GLC	19.0%	56.7%	8.8%	10.9%	4.5%
	GLL	23.1%	48.4%	8.0%	12.5%	8.0%
	GLM	36.5%	42.9%	4.2%	7.3%	9.1%
Finchley Church End	GLC	45.5%	35.3%	6.6%	8.6%	4.0%
	GLL	55.5%	24.7%	4.8%	8.2%	6.9%
	GLM	69.4%	18.0%	2.7%	3.7%	6.2%
Garden Suburb	GLC	53.6%	25.9%	9.4%	8.5%	2.6%
	GLL	59.8%	18.7%	7.9%	8.4%	5.2%
	GLM	75.1%	11.9%	3.7%	3.7%	5.6%
Golders Green	GLC	37.5%	47.8%	4.6%	5.7%	4.4%
	GLL	55.6%	28.6%	3.6%	5.0%	7.2%
	GLM	68.3%	23.2%	2.3%	2.6%	3.6%
West Finchley	GLC	24.7%	51.3%	9.4%	10.7%	3.8%
	GLL	31.2%	42.1%	7.4%	10.8%	8.5%
	GLM	46.4%	35.4%	4.8%	4.9%	8.6%
Woodhouse	GLC	20.8%	55.0%	8.3%	10.2%	5.8%
	GLL	26.4%	45.3%	6.1%	11.2%	10.9%
	GLM	41.5%	39.9%	4.3%	6.0%	8.4%

[Deleted]

To address Mike's point objectively, since 2010 Labour's performance amongst Jewish voters has been particularly poor. There are various factors you can speculate; fag end of new labour, Ed's promise to recognise Palestine regardless of the peace process, anti semitism, etc. but it does seem to suggest that something more than platitudes about rebuilding trust are needed to win over people in the jewish community.

It must almost certainly be the case that its this that cost Labour Hendon in 2017 and perhaps 2015 too. It probably explains why Finchley, while trending Labour, didn't go when Kensington did. However, its probably also true that if Labour do win Hendon and Finchley it might well be despite Labour's poor showing amongst Jewish voters rather than a turnaround. Even if Luciana rejoins and stands for Labour

[John Chanin]

Finchley Central, two and sixpence, from Golders Green on the Northern line......

[The Bishop]

Apr 24, 2020 9:53:03 GMT @barnabymarder said:

A Zionist is simply someone who believes in the right of the state of Israel to exist within secure borders. On that basis even Jeremy Corbyn could be said to be a Zionist. An anti-Zionist is someone who explicitly opposes its existence. It does not mean necessarily mean support for Netanyahu. Many Zionists are bitterly opposed to his policies. This definition of Zionist is almost universally accepted. Of course you don't have to care what I think. It is sad however that you can write so coherently and then you just go full-on idiot as soon as anyone Jewish comes into your thoughts. Like me.

That is indeed how Zionist has been defined, the problem is that it has now come to also mean in a colloquial sense "ardent and uncritical supporter of Israel".

[iang]

Apr 25, 2020 9:28:23 GMT The Bishop said:

Apr 24, 2020 9:53:03 GMT @barnabymarder said:

A Zionist is simply someone who believes in the right of the state of Israel to exist within secure borders. On that basis even Jeremy Corbyn could be said to be a Zionist. An anti-Zionist is someone who explicitly opposes its existence. It does not mean necessarily mean support for Netanyahu. Many Zionists are bitterly opposed to his policies. This definition of Zionist is almost universally accepted. Of course you don't have to care what I think. It is sad however that you can write so coherently and then you just go full-on idiot as soon as anyone Jewish comes into your thoughts. Like me.

That is indeed how Zionist has been defined, the problem is that it has now come to also mean in a colloquial sense "ardent and uncritical supporter of Israel".

But that then surely becomes a self fulfilling prophecy. If you use it purely in that sense, then you can say "Zionism / Zionists" are always bad. It should be perfectly possible to support / feel patriotic about a country whilst not supporting its government - lots of us are like that with the UK much of the time after all.

[Deleted]

An opinion piece has been penned in the JC by the director of Yachad UK titled what can pro Israel groups do now, with a brief that they will have to live without an undemocratic Israel in their life

www.thejc.com/comment/comment/britain-s-pro-israel-groups-must-now-decide-where-they-stand-on-west-bank-annexation-1.499174?fbclid=IwAR3z0EZDL7eTp_GB0oQnD1RRZpUlqXuBSs2vaU4aa-RLXcbpcr6wVxc9PwU

[Deleted]

Apr 25, 2020 19:43:41 GMT @priceofdawn said:

An opinion piece has been penned in the JC by the director of Yachad UK titled what can pro Israel groups do now, with a brief that they will have to live without an undemocratic Israel in their life

www.thejc.com/comment/comment/britain-s-pro-israel-groups-must-now-decide-where-they-stand-on-west-bank-annexation-1.499174?fbclid=IwAR3z0EZDL7eTp_GB0oQnD1RRZpUlqXuBSs2vaU4aa-RLXcbpcr6wVxc9PwU

I don't know if it's this piece that has promoted this response by Rob Halfon: www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/senior-conservative-mp-attacks-board-of-deputies-s-left-of-centre-political-agenda-1.499202?fbclid=IwAR0aQE_Yf7oz1mxDxmWLq_PAd3_4lsIUv0aVlvmZ7O55q-sCBQMfYrhEzrk

But apparently the JC is a centre left propaganda piece for Labour

[Robert Waller]

2011 Census

Age 65+ 13.7% 520/650
Owner-occupied 54.6% 546/650
Private rented 32.0% 24/650
Social rented 11.0% 539/650
White 66.5% 589/650
Black 5.9% 90/650
Asian 16.9% 58/650
Jewish 21.1% 1/650
Managerial & professional 43.1%
Routine & Semi-routine 13.2%
Degree level 46.5% 24/650
No qualifications 13.3% 632/650
Students 10.7% 129/650


2021 Census

Owner occupied 50.8% 491/573
Private rented 38.4% 15/573
Social rented 10.8% 483/573
White 60.5%
Black 5.9%
Asian 17.2%
Other 11.2%
Jewish 20.8% 1/650
Managerial & professional 42.8% 60/573
Routine & Semi-routine 12.8% 559/573
Degree level 53.0% 26/573
No qualifications 14.4% 460/573



General Election 2019: Finchley and Golders Green

Party Candidate Votes % ±%

Conservative Mike Freer 24,162 43.8 −3.2
Liberal Democrats Luciana Berger 17,600 31.9 +25.3
Labour Ross Houston 13,347 24.2 −19.6

C Majority 6,562 11.9 +8.7

Turnout 55,109 71.0 −0.4

Registered electors 77,573

Conservative hold

Swing 14.2 C to LD
Swing 8.4 Lab to C
Swing 22.4 Lab to LD
(yer pays yer money and yer takes yer pick!)

[edgbaston]

Feb 7, 2021 18:14:38 GMT Robert Waller said:

2011 Census

Owner-occupied 54.6% 546/650
Private rented 32.0% 24/650
Social rented 11.0% 539/650
White 66.5% 589/650
Black 5.9% 90/650
Asian 16.9% 58/650
Jewish 21.1% 1/650
Managerial & professional 43.1%
Routine & Semi-routine 13.2%
Degree level 46.5% 24/650
No qualifications 13.3% 632/650
Students 10.7% 129/650
Age 65+ 13.7% 520/650



General Election 2019: Finchley and Golders Green

Party Candidate Votes % ±%

Conservative Mike Freer 24,162 43.8 −3.2
Liberal Democrats Luciana Berger 17,600 31.9 +25.3
Labour Ross Houston 13,347 24.2 −19.6

C Majority 6,562 11.9 +8.7

Turnout 55,109 71.0 −0.4

Registered electors 77,573

Conservative hold

Swing 14.2 C to LD
Swing 8.4 Lab to C
Swing 22.4 Lab to LD
(yer pays yer money and yer takes yer pick!)

Owner-occupied 54.6% 546/650. What a situation for Thatchers old seat.