Finchley & Golders Green

[European Lefty]

Feb 7, 2021 18:20:36 GMT edgbaston said:

Feb 7, 2021 18:14:38 GMT Robert Waller said:

2011 Census

Owner-occupied 54.6% 546/650
Private rented 32.0% 24/650
Social rented 11.0% 539/650
White 66.5% 589/650
Black 5.9% 90/650
Asian 16.9% 58/650
Jewish 21.1% 1/650
Managerial & professional 43.1%
Routine & Semi-routine 13.2%
Degree level 46.5% 24/650
No qualifications 13.3% 632/650
Students 10.7% 129/650
Age 65+ 13.7% 520/650



General Election 2019: Finchley and Golders Green

Party Candidate Votes % ±%

Conservative Mike Freer 24,162 43.8 −3.2
Liberal Democrats Luciana Berger 17,600 31.9 +25.3
Labour Ross Houston 13,347 24.2 −19.6

C Majority 6,562 11.9 +8.7

Turnout 55,109 71.0 −0.4

Registered electors 77,573

Conservative hold

Swing 14.2 C to LD
Swing 8.4 Lab to C
Swing 22.4 Lab to LD
(yer pays yer money and yer takes yer pick!)

Owner-occupied 54.6% 546/650. What a situation for Thatchers old seat.

Although the low social renting figure is more apt

[sirbenjamin]

Jews are good.

[Pete Whitehead]

The electorate of the borough of Barnet is now just to large to sustain 3 constituencies under the new rules with both this seat and Hendon being over quota on current boundaries. As a minimum (and as a maximum for that matter) it is necessary to remove one ward from the borough to a cross borough constituency. In the initial proposals here the Boundary Commission made a complete dogs breakfast of Barnet and neighbouring boroughs. Only one constituency would have remained wholly within the borough with no fewer than four constituencies crossing borough boundaries and involving four other boroughs (Brent, Harrow, Enfield, Haringey).

Finchley was to lose the 'Golders Green' area (specifically the new wards of Childs Hill, Cricklewood and Golders Green, but not Garden Suburb) and link with the Western Haringey wards of Fortis Green, Highgate and Muswell Hill in a new Finchley & Muswell Hill seat. These are the most upmarket wards in Haringey but have been poor ground for the Conservatives for decades now, instead providing the core of Lib Dem support in that borough. As a consequence, notional results for this proposed seat suggested a tight three-way finish based on the 2019 election with some having the Lib Dems winning the seat. This was entirely due to the abberently strong Lib Dem performance in Finchley & Golders Green in that year and in reality this would probably have been effectively a safe Labour seat.

The revised proposals reverse all this and Finchley & Golders Green, which is within quota on current boundaries, remains unchanged except to realign with new ward boundaries. In practice this means exchanging handfuls of voters with Chipping Barnet in the areas of Friern Barnet and Woodside Park. The electoral impact will be negligible.

[johnyorks]

Given the radical differences for this part of the world between the original proposals and the revised proposals, it does make you wonder why the heck the commission went for the unnecessary radicalism in the first place.

[rockefeller]

Nov 21, 2022 9:35:14 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

The electorate of the borough of Barnet is now just to large to sustain 3 constituencies under the new rules with both this seat and Hendon being over quota on current boundaries. As a minimum (and as a maximum for that matter) it is necessary to remove one ward from the borough to a cross borough constituency. In the initial proposals here the Boundary Commission made a complete dogs breakfast of Barnet and neighbouring boroughs. Only one constituency would have remained wholly within the borough with no fewer than four constituencies crossing borough boundaries and involving four other boroughs (Brent, Harrow, Enfield, Haringey).

Finchley was to lose the 'Golders Green' area (specifically the new wards of Childs Hill, Cricklewood and Golders Green, but not Garden Suburb) and link with the Western Haringey wards of Fortis Green, Highgate and Muswell Hill in a new Finchley & Muswell Hill seat. These are the most upmarket wards in Haringey but have been poor ground for the Conservatives for decades now, instead providing the core of Lib Dem support in that borough. As a consequence, notional results for this proposed seat suggested a tight three-way finish based on the 2019 election with some having the Lib Dems winning the seat. This was entirely due to the abberently strong Lib Dem performance in Finchley & Golders Green in that year and in reality this would probably have been effectively a safe Labour seat.

The revised proposals reverse all this and Finchley & Golders Green, which is within quota on current boundaries, remains unchanged except to realign with new ward boundaries. In practice this means exchanging handfuls of voters with Chipping Barnet in the areas of Friern Barnet and Woodside Park. The electoral impact will be negligible.

Could the Tories recover in Fortis Green, Highgate and Muswell Hill if there's more reason to vote for them in the new seat? I know Labour nearly won Highgate in the locals for the first time, but Boris won these areas in 2012, and the Tories did have Councillors in Highgate within my lifetime. Maybe it's just nostalgia on the part of someone who used to live in western Haringey, which is Guardianista.

[batman]

No, they couldn't, certainly not in a general election. The Tories haven't been even close to competitive in those areas for years in local elections and the sort of people who are principally found there are just the sort of people who have stopped voting Conservative in the last generation or so.

[batman]

Feb 9, 2021 7:01:52 GMT sirbenjamin said:

Jews are good.

what a silly comment. Some of us are, some of us aren't, just the same as for any ethnic group or nationality.

[Andrew_S]

Nov 21, 2022 12:06:51 GMT johnyorks said:

Given the radical differences for this part of the world between the original proposals and the revised proposals, it does make you wonder why the heck the commission went for the unnecessary radicalism in the first place.

Were they using a computer program to come up with recommendations like they apparently were with the previous 600 seat review? Such a program was responsible for coming up with Mersey Banks IIRC.