clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765
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Post by clyde1998 on Oct 12, 2022 15:44:08 GMT
FWIW, the current Electoral Calculus vote projection among these seats is Lab 40 (+19), Con 29 (-21), LDm 21 (-6), Grn 4 (+3), RUK 2 (*), Oth 3 (+2).
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Merseymike
Independent
Posts: 39,198
Member is Online
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Post by Merseymike on Oct 12, 2022 15:46:56 GMT
So somewhere that voted 57.4% Leave is considered Blue Wall? Ok. I think that might be Wells. Taunton was also predominantly Leave as was Chippenham
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clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765
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Post by clyde1998 on Oct 12, 2022 15:52:34 GMT
So somewhere that voted 57.4% Leave is considered Blue Wall? Ok. Agreed. When trying to work out what the list would be earlier, I was basing it on a Remain vote (ie. <50 leave), returned a Conservative since 2010 and was in Southern England - a much closer basis to the typical 'Red Wall' list than what we've ended up with here. I think I got ~42 seats too; knew it wasn't the right 42 from the 2019 vote not matching the stated totals. I wouldn't consider Uxbridge and South Ruislip (57% Leave) a 'Blue Wall' seat at all, but would consider Newbury (48% Leave), Windsor (47% Leave) and Woking (44% Leave) ones. Guess which seat is included.
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clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765
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Post by clyde1998 on Oct 12, 2022 16:01:03 GMT
So it's Lab 41 (+20), Con 28 (-22), LDm 24 (-3), Grn 4 (+3), RUK 3 (*), Oth 1 (nc).
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 10,789
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Post by iain on Oct 12, 2022 16:02:00 GMT
Prediction: Lab - 39% Con - 28% LD - 25% Green - 5% Reform - 2% Not a bad guess!
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r34t
Non-Aligned
Posts: 867
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Post by r34t on Oct 12, 2022 16:02:16 GMT
Pretty much in line extrapolating from national polls.
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,341
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Post by YL on Oct 12, 2022 16:02:51 GMT
TBH I'm a little sceptical of the merits of this sort of poll of collections of seats anyway, but I'd have preferred it if they'd concentrated more on the potential Lib Dem targets and relaxed the majority criterion. You're not likely to get good information about whether the Lib Dems have a chance in South West Surrey from polling in Filton & Bradley Stoke or Uxbridge & South Ruislip.
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clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765
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Post by clyde1998 on Oct 12, 2022 16:11:51 GMT
Major point to make, if you return all the undecided voters back to the party they voted for in 2019 (IIRC, most undecided voters return to their previous party come an election), you get: Lab 36, Con 33, LDm 24, Grn 3, RUK 2, Oth 1.
That alone would improve the Conservative seat number by around 10-15 seats.
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clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765
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Post by clyde1998 on Oct 12, 2022 16:12:50 GMT
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Post by mattbewilson on Oct 12, 2022 16:15:51 GMT
am I seeing that right? Harpenden and Hitchen, a labour gain?
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 10,789
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Post by iain on Oct 12, 2022 16:17:23 GMT
On universal swing I make it: Labour - 24 Lib Dem - 12 Conservative - 6 Mistakes: Wimbledon should be Labour Wantage and Taunton Deane should be Lib Dem West Dorset should be Conservative
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clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765
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Post by clyde1998 on Oct 12, 2022 16:21:13 GMT
On universal swing I make it: Labour - 24 Lib Dem - 12 Conservative - 6 Mistakes: Wimbledon should be Labour Wantage and Taunton Deane should be Lib Dem West Dorset should be Conservative As you say:
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 12, 2022 16:21:26 GMT
Is this an MRP thing? What BS is it that Cambridge goes Lib Dem, West Dorset, Totnes go Labour
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 12, 2022 16:22:34 GMT
OK just seen the correction re: West Dorset. Its still a bunch of BS though
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,341
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Post by YL on Oct 12, 2022 16:34:00 GMT
Is this an MRP thing? What BS is it that Cambridge goes Lib Dem, West Dorset, Totnes go Labour I think Cambridge is just the lighter red colour meaning "already Labour" (cf Bedford). Totnes seems implausible, but it's what you get if you apply a UNS based on this poll to the 2019 result.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 12, 2022 16:38:32 GMT
Is this an MRP thing? What BS is it that Cambridge goes Lib Dem, West Dorset, Totnes go Labour I think Cambridge is just the lighter red colour meaning "already Labour" (cf Bedford). Totnes seems implausible, but it's what you get if you apply a UNS based on this poll to the 2019 result. Ah I did a J.G.Harston - should have expanded the map. That answers my question about MRP/UNS. I agree with others that it was a poor selection of constituencies and UNS isn't really appropriate when you have seats like Esher where Labour's vote was squeezed massively last time alongside the likes of Reading West. Graham is going to be even more unbearable now. Not only Wimbledon but also Sutton, Sutton & Cheam
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European Lefty
Labour
Can be bribed with salted liquorice
Posts: 5,618
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Post by European Lefty on Oct 12, 2022 16:44:07 GMT
The term "blue wall" is even more meaningless, incoherent and witless than "red wall" and no journalist, commentator or polling company who uses it deserves to be taken seriously
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,341
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Post by YL on Oct 12, 2022 16:53:13 GMT
On universal swing I make it: Labour - 24 Lib Dem - 12 Conservative - 6 Mistakes: Wimbledon should be Labour Wantage and Taunton Deane should be Lib Dem West Dorset should be Conservative Wantage Labour is correct: they got 15.2% last time so UNS would put them on around 35% and clearly ahead of the other two. Taunton Deane is close enough that rounding errors in the percentages may come into play: if you take 22.0 points off the Tories and 3.0 off the Lib Dems you do get the Lib Dems slightly ahead, but not if it's really 21.6 and 3.4. The other two have already been corrected. (Should probably add that applying UNS based on these figures isn't likely to give a very plausible prediction anyway...)
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Post by batman on Oct 12, 2022 17:46:52 GMT
I think Cambridge is just the lighter red colour meaning "already Labour" (cf Bedford). Totnes seems implausible, but it's what you get if you apply a UNS based on this poll to the 2019 result. Ah I did a J.G.Harston - should have expanded the map. That answers my question about MRP/UNS. I agree with others that it was a poor selection of constituencies and UNS isn't really appropriate when you have seats like Esher where Labour's vote was squeezed massively last time alongside the likes of Reading West. Graham is going to be even more unbearable now. Not only Wimbledon but also Sutton, Sutton & Cheam a ) what do you mean "now" ? b ) although some of the extrapolations seem ridiculous, they are not at all dissimilar to extrapolating recent national polls to those constituencies. For example, Redfield & Wilton's latest national poll, as well as that of several other companies, actually does suggest Lab gain Totnes, Sutton & Cheam, and Wantage - although Labour is in 3rd in all those seats, the swing from LD to Lab is enough to take them past the LDs as well as the Tories. Perhaps in some ways Wantage is the least ludicrous of those, Labour wasn't that many votes behind in 1997 & has historically had strong votes in Didcot but also some support (in the more distant past) in Wantage itself and also some relatively industrial other villages
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Post by batman on Oct 12, 2022 17:48:36 GMT
I am not of course saying that Labour will actually win all or any of these seats when the general election comes, merely saying that, if current polls were eventuated in those constituencies on the basis of UNS, that's what would happen currently, according to at least some polls.
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