Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,025
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Post by Sibboleth on Feb 9, 2023 11:55:06 GMT
If he does actually run as an Independent, then then campaign would almost certainly be dominated by his views on the war in Ukraine as every other candidate will bring it up constantly, and it's a little strange that this obvious reality never features much in discussions about the hypothetical.
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Post by batman on Feb 9, 2023 12:05:29 GMT
Yes, that's quite possible. Its also still quite conceivable that he doesn't run at all, not least to avoid putting the friends he still has in the PLP and local party in a difficult position. And this becomes more likely if Labour's proposed replacement is at least vaguely acceptable to him. as a former supporter of Corbyn, I would have to say that embarrassing his friends & comrades has not up to now been something he has been that unwilling to do |
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Post by mattbewilson on Feb 9, 2023 17:25:05 GMT
If he does actually run as an Independent, then then campaign would almost certainly be dominated by his views on the war in Ukraine as every other candidate will bring it up constantly, and it's a little strange that this obvious reality never features much in discussions about the hypothetical. surely that depends on when it is and how important it is locally. I don't know the area so I can't really comment |
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Post by batman on Feb 9, 2023 21:08:16 GMT
support for Ukraine, and for defeat for Russia, is probably a majority in virtually parliamentary constituency, if not absolutely all of them. Of course it is possible that by the time of the general election the war will be over, though sadly I fear that it won't be
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Post by mattbewilson on Feb 9, 2023 23:14:33 GMT
I think you're right this will be a drawn out conflict. I also agree, everybody in the UK wants to Russian troops out of Ukraine. I suspect it's just an issue that is more important than others
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graham
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Post by graham on Feb 10, 2023 0:26:49 GMT
I really don't believe that the War in Ukraine is likely to be a salient issue in Islington North - or GB as a whole. Ditto attitudes to Brexit.
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Feb 14, 2023 22:11:20 GMT
Yes, that's quite possible. Its also still quite conceivable that he doesn't run at all, not least to avoid putting the friends he still has in the PLP and local party in a difficult position. And this becomes more likely if Labour's proposed replacement is at least vaguely acceptable to him. That's why I've always said the best solution to the Corbyn problem is to have someone from the left of the party replace him, Tarry perhaps?? Starmer wouldn't countenance any left wing candidates replacing him. |
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Post by rockefeller on Feb 15, 2023 9:25:57 GMT
Corbyn isn't an electoral god here. He voted against the Iraq War but there was a big swing against him in 2005.
The other thing is that I imagine there's a lot of churn in an inner city seat like this with a high proportion of private renters moving in and out. That helps Labour imo.
It really depends how much of the 'Labour isn't left wing enough' vote the Greens get too. Based on the locals, the Greens could get into double-digits here.
Either way, it may divert Labour resources from other seats like Cities of London and Westminster etc.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Feb 15, 2023 9:28:32 GMT
Corbyn isn't an electoral god here. He voted against the Iraq War but there was a big swing against him in 2005. Some still fondly remember the days when the Lib Dem leaflets sought votes against him as he was "Tony Blair's Labour candidate". |
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Post by mattbewilson on Feb 15, 2023 9:31:43 GMT
Corbyn isn't an electoral god here. He voted against the Iraq War but there was a big swing against him in 2005. The other thing is that I imagine there's a lot of churn in an inner city seat like this with a high proportion of private renters moving in and out. That helps Labour imo. It really depends how much of the 'Labour isn't left wing enough' vote the Greens get too. Based on the locals, the Greens could get into double-digits here. Either way, it may divert Labour resources from other seats like Cities of London and Westminster etc. worth saying he did a lot of work in that campaign to help Emily hold Islington South for Labour against the Lib Dems almost victory there over Iraq |
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Post by rockefeller on Feb 15, 2023 9:32:27 GMT
IMHO, personal votes for MPs are more of a thing in seats with stable populations like North Norfolk, Orkney & Shetland or Westmorland & Lonsdale for the Lib Dems.
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Post by aargauer on Feb 15, 2023 9:33:32 GMT
Corbyn isn't an electoral god here. He voted against the Iraq War but there was a big swing against him in 2005. The other thing is that I imagine there's a lot of churn in an inner city seat like this with a high proportion of private renters moving in and out. That helps Labour imo. It really depends how much of the 'Labour isn't left wing enough' vote the Greens get too. Based on the locals, the Greens could get into double-digits here. Either way, it may divert Labour resources from other seats like Cities of London and Westminster etc. His profile might be a tiny bit higher than in 2005. |
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Post by grahammurray on Feb 15, 2023 10:46:05 GMT
Corbyn isn't an electoral god here. He voted against the Iraq War but there was a big swing against him in 2005. Some still fondly remember the days when the Lib Dem leaflets sought votes against him as he was "Tony Blair's Labour candidate". Just as Starmer has been described as Corbyn's Labour candidate. |
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Post by batman on Feb 15, 2023 11:03:59 GMT
Right-wingers in the Jewish community are still banging on about Starmer serving under Corbyn. Essentially, they are condemning him for not attempting to destroy his party.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Feb 15, 2023 11:08:42 GMT
Right-wingers in the Jewish community are still banging on about Starmer serving under Corbyn. Essentially, they are condemning him for not attempting to destroy his party. Indeed. The claim Starmer sat silent about anti-semitism during Corbyn's leadership would be a meaningless criticism even if it was true, which as Lee Harpin often points out, it isn't. |
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Post by rockefeller on Feb 15, 2023 11:18:43 GMT
People will still say Starmer campaigned to make Corbyn Prime Minister until the day he dies
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 15, 2023 11:42:29 GMT
People will still say Starmer campaigned to make Corbyn Prime Minister until the day he dies Whether or not they say it, it is an incontravertible fact that he did |
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Post by rockefeller on Feb 15, 2023 12:58:28 GMT
Tony Blair campaigned to make Michael Foot Prime Minister but I'm not sure that attack line would have worked for the Tories in 1997
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Post by aargauer on Feb 15, 2023 13:08:44 GMT
People will still say Starmer campaigned to make Corbyn Prime Minister until the day he dies I think Tony Blair has managed to overcome being Michael Foot's candidate. |
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graham
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Post by graham on Feb 15, 2023 13:17:00 GMT
I am very uneasy at Starmer appearing to rely on Blair for advice at all. At the time of the 2003 Iraq War Starmer wrote an article highly critical of that conflict and strongly implying that there had been a breach of International Law as a result of US/UK aggression. Why,therefore, is he not applying the same energy to getting Blair arraigned before the Internatioonal Criminal Court at the Hague that he is devoting to removing Corbyn from the party? It is a good question to pose to him.
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