Holborn & St Pancras

[Deleted]

HOLBORN AND ST PANCRAS

The seat of Labour leader, Keir Starmer.

A long inner-city seat running the length of the Borough of Camden from Holborn in the south to Highgate in the north, including Covent Garden, King's Cross, Somers Town, Camden Town, Primrose Hill, Kentish Town and Gospel Oak.

At its furthest reaches, the seat includes
the eastern part of Hampstead Heath.

The constituency covers the heart of legal London, including the Inns of Court and with barristers' chambers housing some of the foremost legal minds on the planet.

University College London, as well as faculties of King's College and the London School of Economics can also be found in the seat. 

As the name suggests, the seat includes St Pancras International, with Euston connecting London to the Midlands and North, something Kier Starmer is surely hoping to achieve as Labour leader.

Holborn was its own constituency until 1950, being held by the Conservatives without interruption. 

In 1950, a combination of the business vote being abolished and unfavourable boundary changes for the Conservatives created a Holborn & St Pancras South seat that voted Labour. The Tories won that seat by a whisker in 1959, only to lose it again in 1964.

In 1983, the seats boundaries changed again, as Camden lost one of its three MPs. The inaugral member for this seat was one Frank Dobson, holding it until his retirement in 2015.

Dobson won the Labour nomination for London mayor in 2000, later losing to Ken Livingstone (then running as an independent). 

With Frank Dobson's retirement, Sir Keir Starmer, formerly Director of Public Prosecutions, won the seat for Labour in 2015. 

Since the 1960s, the Conservative vote has crumbled, with their last local election wins in 2006 being the last time Tory Councillors were elected in wards within this constituency.

The Greens have a presence in the seat, with Sian Berry being the only non-Labour Councillor elected in 2014 and 2018. 

Green Party leader Natalie Bennett stood in the seat in 2015, achieving over 10% of the vote, one of the best Green Party results outside Brighton and Bristol.

[John Chanin]

I was going to do this one, as one of the constituencies where I used to live. I will add data and some comments when I reach it.

[Deleted]

Apr 4, 2020 17:01:54 GMT @barnabymarder said:

Might be worth mentioning that Somers Town has one of the largest Bangladeshi communities anywhere. Also note that most of Covent Garden is not included in this seat, but is in the City of Westminster, though some of it is included.

That's also true of Regents Park. While there is a Camden ward of that name, the park itself is in Westminster.

[Robert Waller]

Apr 4, 2020 14:33:52 GMT John Chanin said:

I was going to do this one, as one of the constituencies where I used to live. I will add data and some comments when I reach it.

I see no problem with multiple entries. The more information and views, the merrier!

[John Chanin]

This profile has been produced without reference to the one done by @conservativeestimate .  

This seat stretches right down into the heart of London at Covent Garden and Chancery Lane on the border of the City. This area includes the British Museum, the Great Ormond Street hospital, Lincolns Inn Fields and the London School of Economics, and the jewellery market at Hatton Garden. Also south of the Euston Road are the restaurants of Fitzrovia, and University College. To the north of Euston Road, where stand St Pancras and Kings Cross stations, is Somers Town with its council housing and large Bangladeshi population (second only to Tower Hamlets). East of here the derelict railway lands to the north of Kings Cross, a huge site, are still being redeveloped into a new mixed use quarter of London. To the north of Euston station demolition is rather proposed, as the council estates make way for the HS2 terminal. Regents Park with its grand Nash terraces forms the western edge of this area, with Primrose Hill to the north, an extremely well off residential area. This glamorous central London half of the seat has more residential than you might think, and a high percentage of social housing - very nearly half, with substantial ethnic minority population as well as Bangladeshis.

The northern half of the seat is more ordinary. On the east side, bordering Holloway, is Kentish Town. This is Victorian housing interspersed with council estates, and over two-thirds white - high for inner London. On the west side is Camden Town and Chalk Farm, with its well-known flea market at Camden Lock. This has a more trendy reputation than Kentish Town, but is little different in terms of its social and demographic make-up. To the north of here, and bordering the huge open space of Hampstead Heath is Gospel Oak (a mixture of council housing, and up market terraced Victorian housing close to the Heath). The seat extends up the east side of the heath to Highgate, including its famous cemetery with the grave of Karl Marx. This is a distinctively different area with higher owner-occupation and much less private renting, very high managerial and low routine workers, and a much smaller ethnic minority population. On the border with Haringey around Highgate Village it is positively plutocratic.  Despite the high levels of renting, characteristic of inner London, this is a very middle-class seat, with one of the highest percentage of managerial workers in the country, and a high level of educational qualifiactions, as well as students.

Historically this socially polarised seat has been safely Labour since the very small St Pancras North and Holborn seats were merged in 1983. The Conservative strength in Bloomsbury has largely dissipated, and Labour generally win all the wards here in council elections, although there was some Liberal Democratic strength in the first decade of the century, and there is competition from the Greens in Highgate. In 2010 the Gospel Oak and Highgate wards were added from Hampstead, creating another large inner London seat with an electorate approaching 90,000. This had no political effect. The MP here is Keir Starmer, first elected in 2015 in succession to Frank Dobson, a long-time front bencher, and the mayoral candidate defeated by Ken Livingstone in 2000. Starmer is a lawyer, unusually for a modern MP someone who has held down an important job before entering politics, and he has recently been elected as the new leader of the Labour Party.

Although Camden is the right size for two seats on its own, the Boundary Commission has had problems in this part of London. This seat was oversized, and the original proposals moved 4 wards to a cross-borough seat with Westminster, with Tufnell Park coming in from Islington. Following consultation the Boundary Commission has had a complete rethink. All four wards in the south-west have been restored to the seat, Tufnell Park sent back to Islington, and instead the two wards which form a northern protrusion to the seat - Highgate and Kentish Town North - have been moved to a Hampstead seat. This is a rare example of splitting an area (Kentish Town) so this may still not be the final answer. The change will make the seat less middle-class, but still very safely Labour.

Census data: owner-occupied 28% (566/573 in England & Wales), private rented 28% (45th), social rented 42% (6th).
                      :White 64%, Black 9%, Sth Asian 11%, Mixed 6%, Other 11%
                      : Managerial & professional 55% (17th), Routine & Semi-routine 19% (529th)
                      : Degree 45% (23rd), Minimal qualifications 22% (551st)
                      : Students 18% (22nd), Over 65: 10% (532nd)

	2010	%	2015	%	2017	%	2019	%
Labour	25,198	46.1%	29,062	52.9%	41,343	70.1%	36,641	64.5%
Conservative	11,134	20.4%	12,014	21.9%	10,834	18.4%	8,878	15.6%
Liberal Democrat	15,256	27.9%	3,555	6.5%	4,020	6.8%	7,314	12.9%
UKIP/Brexit	587	1.1%	2,740	5.0%	727	1.2%	1,032	1.8%
Green	1,480	2.7%	7,013	12.8%	1,980	3.4%	2,746	4.8%
Others	994	1.8%	533	1.0%	93	0.2%	175	0.3%
Majority	9,942	18.2%	17,048	31.0%	30,509	51.7%	27,763	48.9%

[Deleted]

Apr 17, 2020 15:31:16 GMT John Chanin said:

This profile has been produced without reference to the one done by @conservativeestimate .  

This seat stretches right down into the heart of London at Covent Garden and Chancery Lane on the border of the City. This area includes the British Museum, the Great Ormond Street hospital, Lincolns Inn Fields and the London School of Economics, and the jewellery market at Hatton Garden. Also south of the Euston Road are the restaurants of Fitzrovia, and University College. To the north of Euston Road, where stand St Pancras and Kings Cross stations, is Somers Town with its council housing and large Bangladeshi population (second only to Tower Hamlets). East of here the derelict railway lands to the north of Kings Cross, a huge site, are still being redeveloped into a new mixed use quarter of London. To the north of Euston station demolition is rather proposed, as the council estates make way for the HS2 terminal. Regents Park with its grand Nash terraces forms the western edge of this area, with Primrose Hill to the north, an extremely well off residential area. This glamorous central London half of the seat has more residential than you might think, and a high percentage of social housing - very nearly half, with substantial ethnic minority population as well as Bangladeshis.

The northern half of the seat is more ordinary. On the east side, bordering Holloway, is Kentish Town. This is Victorian housing interspersed with council estates, and over two-thirds white - high for inner London. On the west side is Camden Town and Chalk Farm, with its well-known flea market at Camden Lock. This has a more trendy reputation than Kentish Town, but is little different in terms of its social and demographic make-up. To the north of here, and bordering the huge open space of Hampstead Heath is Gospel Oak (a mixture of council housing, and up market terraced Victorian housing close to the Heath). The seat extends up the east side of the heath to Highgate, including its famous cemetery with the grave of Karl Marx. This is a distinctively different area with higher owner-occupation and much less private renting, very high managerial and low routine workers, and a much smaller ethnic minority population. On the border with Haringey around Highgate Village it is positively plutocratic.

Historically this socially polarised seat has been safely Labour since the very small St Pancras North and Holborn seats were merged in 1983. The Conservative strength in Bloomsbury has largely dissipated, and Labour generally win all the wards here in council elections, although there was some Liberal Democratic strength in the first decade of the century, and there is competition from the Greens in Highgate. In 2010 the Gospel Oak and Highgate wards were added from Hampstead, creating another large inner London seat with an electorate approaching 90,000. This had no political effect. The MP here is Keir Starmer, first elected in 2015 in succession to Frank Dobson, a long-time front bencher, and the mayoral candidate defeated by Ken Livingstone in 2000. Starmer is a lawyer, unusually for a modern MP someone who has held down an important job before entering politics, and he has recently been elected as the new leader of the Labour Party.

Census data: owner-occupied 28% (566/573 in England & Wales), private rented 28% (45th), social rented 42% (6th).
                      :White 64%, Black 9%, Sth Asian 11%, Mixed 6%, Other 11%
                      : Managerial & professional 55% (17th), Routine & Semi-routine 19% (529th)

	2010	%	2015	%	2017	%	2019	%
Labour	25,198	46.1%	29,062	52.9%	41,343	70.1%	36,641	64.5%
Conservative	11,134	20.4%	12,014	21.9%	10,834	18.4%	8,878	15.6%
Liberal Democrat	15,256	27.9%	3,555	6.5%	4,020	6.8%	7,314	12.9%
UKIP/Brexit	587	1.1%	2,740	5.0%	727	1.2%	1,032	1.8%
Green	1,480	2.7%	7,013	12.8%	1,980	3.4%	2,746	4.8%
Others	994	1.8%	533	1.0%	93	0.2%	175	0.3%
Majority	9,942	18.2%	17,048	31.0%	30,509	51.7%	27,763	48.9%

Very good summary but the Holborn seat was replaced by Holborn & St Pancras South in 1950.

Why were the Conservatives strong in Bloomsbury in the past and do the trends in Bloomsbury and Holborn give us an indication of what could happen to the Conservatives long-term in nextdoor Cities of London & Westminster?

[Sibboleth]

Always relevant:

[Deleted]

Apr 17, 2020 18:15:20 GMT Sibboleth said:

Always relevant:

Curious to see how this has changed since 2011.

[John Chanin]

We know what's changed since 2011. There has been a sharp drop in the percentage of owner-occupied with a mortgage, a small drop in social housing, a small increase in outright owner-occupation, and a large rise in private renting. I would expect these changes to be most marked in outer London, but there will be also be many more wards in inner London where private renting is now the largest tenure.

[The Bishop]

The old Holborn (pre-1964) borough (one of the smallest in the old LCC) invariably had a comfortable Tory majority. Fair to say that wouldn't be the case now.

[greenhert]

Apr 18, 2020 10:52:03 GMT The Bishop said:

The old Holborn (pre-1964) borough (one of the smallest in the old LCC) invariably had a comfortable Tory majority. Fair to say that wouldn't be the case now.

It only had a Conservative majority because of the business franchise still being applicable to local government elections. Amazingly enough this was not abolished for British local government until 1974 and it still persists in the City of London.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Apr 18, 2020 11:45:16 GMT greenhert said:

Apr 18, 2020 10:52:03 GMT The Bishop said:

The old Holborn (pre-1964) borough (one of the smallest in the old LCC) invariably had a comfortable Tory majority. Fair to say that wouldn't be the case now.

It only had a Conservative majority because of the business franchise still being applicable to local government elections. Amazingly enough this was not abolished for British local government until 1974 and it still persists in the City of London.

The City of London does not use the business franchise as it was previously - it was reformed in 2002: www.legislation.gov.uk/ukla/2002/6/pdfs/ukla_20020006_en.pdf

[iang]

Apr 17, 2020 17:48:16 GMT @abiezercoppe said:

Apr 17, 2020 16:31:50 GMT @conservativeestimate said:

Very good summary but the Holborn seat was replaced by Holborn & St Pancras South in 1950.

Why were the Conservatives strong in Bloomsbury in the past and do the trends in Bloomsbury and Holborn give us an indication of what could happen to the Conservatives long-term in nextdoor Cities of London & Westminster?

There's a couple of reasons why I think Bloomsbury has trended towards Labour. Whilst the eastern part of Bloomsbury towards Clerkenwell and Kings Cross are more residential, the western parts around Russell Square are not. What were houses around residential squares area are now primarily university buildings and accommodation - what population is now left in Bloomsbury-proper is primarily Labour-inclined students. 

Oxford West and Abingdon, Oxford East, and Cambridge were all Conservative seats until the late 80s/early 90s, after which they shifted to Labour or the Liberal Democrats. It was a similar time when Bloomsbury shifted from Conservative to Labour. In university towns/areas there appears to be a general trend against the Conservatices at this point . 

There's also the argument that class (and to a lesser extent income) is becoming a less important factor in people's voting intentions. Plenty of areas of well off London are solidly Labour. 

Overall, I am not sure how much of an indication Bloomsbury can give to the Cities of London & Westminster. If it is the university element which is important for the area trending to Labour, then it is specific to Bloomsbury. Moreover, in terms of wealth, even Bloomsbury can't compare to the residential areas of Westminster - there aren't the roads of Rolls-Royces like there are in the latter. 

Oxford East has never been Conservative except in its very first election, the Thatcher landslide of 1983. The boundaries are different now, but in its original form, it included very little of what you might call "tourist / University" Oxford, and much of it is / was pretty deprived (like the at one time notorious estate of Blackbird Leys). Less so on current boundaries, but as originally formed it was very different to OXWAB, Cambridge, the London seats under discussion etc

[J.G.Harston]

Apr 18, 2020 11:45:16 GMT greenhert said:

Apr 18, 2020 10:52:03 GMT The Bishop said:

The old Holborn (pre-1964) borough (one of the smallest in the old LCC) invariably had a comfortable Tory majority. Fair to say that wouldn't be the case now.

It only had a Conservative majority because of the business franchise still being applicable to local government elections. Amazingly enough this was not abolished for British local government until 1974 and it still persists in the City of London.

1969 not 1974, with the Act regularising the franchise as a Universal Adult Franchise.

[iang]

Apr 18, 2020 18:56:35 GMT @abiezercoppe said:

Apr 18, 2020 15:19:56 GMT iang said:

Oxford East has never been Conservative except in its very first election, the Thatcher landslide of 1983. The boundaries are different now, but in its original form, it included very little of what you might call "tourist / University" Oxford, and much of it is / was pretty deprived (like the at one time notorious estate of Blackbird Leys). Less so on current boundaries, but as originally formed it was very different to OXWAB, Cambridge, the London seats under discussion etc

Whilst it didn't include much of the university itself, it still included St Clement's, Iffley, and Headington. It's important to remember that most students at Oxford don't live in college after first year. The prior mentioned places were (and still are) popular places for both students and academics to live. 

There are / were quite a lot of students in St Clements (that's where I lived in my 2nd year) and Iffley true, rather less in Headington I think. And at least back in "my day", most students  only "lived out" for one year - the usual pattern was in college in 1st year, out 2nd year, back in college in a bigger room 3rd year. And I 'm not convinced many academics lived in those areas - they tended to live in North Oxford, or right out of the city altogether.
BTW, my favourite Ranter story - it may not be a very reliable source, but i love the story of the writer who claimed to have infiltrated a Ranter act of worship, and (one of them let forth a great fart, and as it gave retort, he muttered these words, Let everything that hath breath, Praise the Lord". Must try it at church myself some time...

[Deleted]

Can recommend some great places to eat in this constituency:

Master Wei just off Queen's Square in Holborn

Coal Office in King's Cross

The Bull and Last in Highgate

[Pete Whitehead]

Jun 9, 2021 15:25:28 GMT @conservativeestimate said:

Can recommend some great places to eat in this constituency:

Master Wei just off Queen's Square in Holborn

Coal Office in King's Cross

The Bull and Last in Highgate

I've probably drunk in more pubs in this constituency than any other, and in all parts of the seat from Highgate village down to the borders of Covent Garden and Tottenham Court Road, the Euston/Kings Cross area, Camden Town of course, Kentish Town. Cities of London & Westminster would be a contender too I guess as well as Watford, St Albans, Wolverhampton South West, Cambridge perhaps. The old Harrow East (when it included Greenhill and Marlborough) would be up there. Possibly this question deserves a thread of its own. I was thinking when Arthur Figgis commented on pubs in Chesham & Amersham that I can't recall ever having drunk in a pub in that constituency although I feel I ought to have done, but I've visited quite a lot by virtue of doing a driving job many years ago when several there were on my delivery round.

[gerrardwinstanley]

Jun 9, 2021 15:25:28 GMT @conservativeestimate said:

Can recommend some great places to eat in this constituency:

Master Wei just off Queen's Square in Holborn

Coal Office in King's Cross

The Bull and Last in Highgate

For a drink, I've always thought the Southampton Arms (down the road from the latter) is much better. 

[Deleted]

Jun 10, 2021 8:13:33 GMT gerrardwinstanley said:

Jun 9, 2021 15:25:28 GMT @conservativeestimate said:

Can recommend some great places to eat in this constituency:

Master Wei just off Queen's Square in Holborn

Coal Office in King's Cross

The Bull and Last in Highgate

For a drink, I've always thought the Southampton Arms (down the road from the latter) is much better. 

Ever been to The Flask?

[gerrardwinstanley]

Jun 10, 2021 8:34:00 GMT @conservativeestimate said:

Jun 10, 2021 8:13:33 GMT gerrardwinstanley said:

For a drink, I've always thought the Southampton Arms (down the road from the latter) is much better. 

Ever been to The Flask?

Both the Highgate and Hampstead pubs bearing that name! I'm guessing you're talking about the former, which undoubtedly is a very good pub, although there is something about it that doesn't really do it for me (I can't really put my finger on it, however). Perhaps I find it at times a bit rigid, when from a pub I want something slightly more relaxed, "organic".