Post by Sibboleth on Sept 5, 2013 18:03:17 GMT
Queensland - Labor seats
Basically Queensland is confusing the hell out of me. My general thinking is that the swing (no matter what direction) is probably better for Labor outside Greater Brisbane, but that's purely because that was the pattern in the Great Electoral Armageddon of 2012. Anyway...
Griffith - Rudd's electoral fief in south central Brisbane is, on paper at least, the safest Labor seat in Queensland. There have been a few ominous/dodgy local polls here, but Rudd ought to be more than fine provided that this isn't one of those random Queensland Wipeout Years that the ALP occasionally suffers from. In the absence of Rudd - who, somewhat remarkably given his personality, has a large personal vote - this seat would not be safe at all, though would still lean Labor.
Oxley - a rather odd division that includes a random assortment of southern Brisbane suburbs - including Inla, one of only two Brisbane seats to stay Labor in the Great Electoral Cataclysm of 2012 - and the eastern suburbs of Ipswich, and is a safe ALP seat by nature (it used to include all of Ipswich and was very safe, except for 1996 - and the less said about that the better). Ought to be a Labor hold, no matter what.
Rankin - another fairly safe Labor seat in the southern suburbs of Brisbane, with strong Labor support in Logan (part of which even stayed Labor in 2012) finding itself somewhat diluted by more wishy-washy territory inside Brisbane proper. This is an open seat (which may be less than great news), but ought to be held if statewide polling tells the truth.
Blair - an uneasy mix of strongly Labor Ipswich and a sizeable swathe of rural territory. This was a comfortable Labor hold in 2010 and ought to be held again if the polls are correct. Queensland, though, is Queensland, so, you know.
Capricornia - a big slice of regional Queensland that has tended to remain pretty loyal to Labor while other divisions in that part of the world have become (at best) patchy in recent decades; the reason for the difference being the fact that the Labor vote was (is) based around the coal industry. It is occasionally lost, however, and the chances of that happening are elevated this year by the retirement of Kirsten Livermore. All things considered I'll call a Labor hold here, but this is definitely one to keep an eye on.
Lilley - there is a very real prospect of Swan losing as he did in 1996 (though the boundaries are a tad better for Labor now than then, if I remember rightly. Which I might not) and whether he does or not mostly depends on what version of political reality in Queensland is the real one. Very much in Swan's favour is the fact that Lilley is (unusually for Queensland) a low-swinging seat, and my general suspicion is that Swan will hang on through sheer bile.
Petrie - the reality problem strikes even harder here: if Labor aren't doing so badly in Queensland (even if only because the swing happened in 2010), then there's a very good chance that this seat will be held (meaning that it will he held by an opposition member for the first time in a quarter of a century). If that is not the case, then Petrie is horribly vulnerable. Genuinely undecided.
Moreton - the same problem as with Petrie, but on a significantly narrower margin. As such, it logically follows that I should predict a Coalition gain, albeit with some vague hesitancy. Can see anything from another narrow Labor hold (if the optimistic scenario is correct) to a not-that-close-at-all-actually loss.
Basically Queensland is confusing the hell out of me. My general thinking is that the swing (no matter what direction) is probably better for Labor outside Greater Brisbane, but that's purely because that was the pattern in the Great Electoral Armageddon of 2012. Anyway...
Griffith - Rudd's electoral fief in south central Brisbane is, on paper at least, the safest Labor seat in Queensland. There have been a few ominous/dodgy local polls here, but Rudd ought to be more than fine provided that this isn't one of those random Queensland Wipeout Years that the ALP occasionally suffers from. In the absence of Rudd - who, somewhat remarkably given his personality, has a large personal vote - this seat would not be safe at all, though would still lean Labor.
Oxley - a rather odd division that includes a random assortment of southern Brisbane suburbs - including Inla, one of only two Brisbane seats to stay Labor in the Great Electoral Cataclysm of 2012 - and the eastern suburbs of Ipswich, and is a safe ALP seat by nature (it used to include all of Ipswich and was very safe, except for 1996 - and the less said about that the better). Ought to be a Labor hold, no matter what.
Rankin - another fairly safe Labor seat in the southern suburbs of Brisbane, with strong Labor support in Logan (part of which even stayed Labor in 2012) finding itself somewhat diluted by more wishy-washy territory inside Brisbane proper. This is an open seat (which may be less than great news), but ought to be held if statewide polling tells the truth.
Blair - an uneasy mix of strongly Labor Ipswich and a sizeable swathe of rural territory. This was a comfortable Labor hold in 2010 and ought to be held again if the polls are correct. Queensland, though, is Queensland, so, you know.
Capricornia - a big slice of regional Queensland that has tended to remain pretty loyal to Labor while other divisions in that part of the world have become (at best) patchy in recent decades; the reason for the difference being the fact that the Labor vote was (is) based around the coal industry. It is occasionally lost, however, and the chances of that happening are elevated this year by the retirement of Kirsten Livermore. All things considered I'll call a Labor hold here, but this is definitely one to keep an eye on.
Lilley - there is a very real prospect of Swan losing as he did in 1996 (though the boundaries are a tad better for Labor now than then, if I remember rightly. Which I might not) and whether he does or not mostly depends on what version of political reality in Queensland is the real one. Very much in Swan's favour is the fact that Lilley is (unusually for Queensland) a low-swinging seat, and my general suspicion is that Swan will hang on through sheer bile.
Petrie - the reality problem strikes even harder here: if Labor aren't doing so badly in Queensland (even if only because the swing happened in 2010), then there's a very good chance that this seat will be held (meaning that it will he held by an opposition member for the first time in a quarter of a century). If that is not the case, then Petrie is horribly vulnerable. Genuinely undecided.
Moreton - the same problem as with Petrie, but on a significantly narrower margin. As such, it logically follows that I should predict a Coalition gain, albeit with some vague hesitancy. Can see anything from another narrow Labor hold (if the optimistic scenario is correct) to a not-that-close-at-all-actually loss.
