Australian General Election

[Sibboleth]

Labor have also been hurt by the woeful records of several (now mostly deceased) state governments. But that's but a short term worry: Australian state governments are incompetent by definition, and soon things will work the other way.

[seanf]

Morgan have the Coalition up 54/46% on 2PP. On a uniform swing that would give them about 88 seats out of 150.

[Andrew_S]

Aug 31, 2013 7:07:43 GMT seanf said:

Morgan have the Coalition up 54/46% on 2PP. On a uniform swing that would give them about 88 seats out of 150.

In 1996 53.63% delivered 94 seats to Howard's coalition:

Wikipedia

[Sibboleth]

I've been posting seat-by-seat predictions over at Atlas, and will repeat them here... because. I am almost certain to be wrong in 100% of possible cases of error. My general assumption is of a swing of around 3pts and with less regional variation than at the last election (but with still a fair bit). Anyways...

[Sibboleth]

New South Wales - Labor seats

Grayndler - even if the Greens manage to stay ahead of the Liberals, the change to Liberal preferencing policy pretty much completely rules out the prospect of an upset that wasn't looking likely anyway.

Sydney - a very safe seat and will doubtless remain so, with even the vague prospect of a Green upset (which was never very likely) removed. I do have vague worries that demographic changes will eventually catch up with Labor here, but perhaps the current sweet spot can be maintained indefinitely.

Cunningham - Labor stronghold based around Wollongong and only ever lost in a freakish by-election during the Crean leadership (and even then not to the forces of darkness).

Shortland - safe seat in the Hunter.

Charlton - another safe seat in the Hunter, though an open seat. But with a disgraced Liberal candidate.

Hunter - another safe seat in the Hunter, this one includes a lot of natural Nationals territory that's more than counterbalanced by the inclusion of Cessnock.

Newcastle - this is, shockingly enough, yet another safe seat in the Hunter, though one that has occasionally produced a semi-wobbly margin in recent decades. It's an open seat, but defeat is basically unthinkable.

Chifley - as solidly Labor as it is solidly proletarian and will remain so even if there is another exaggerated swing in Sydney. Which, given its name, is exactly as things should be.

Blaxland - a rather ironically named division (Gregory Blaxland was a wealthy landowner and this is one of the poorest parts of Sydney) that was once the electoral fief of a man of fine cultural tastes and a charmingly foul wit. Labor hold.

Throsby - this is actually safer than its margin implies because it's rather polarised (Port Kembla and Bowral et al do not vote the same way, shockingly enough).

Watson - successive boundary and demographic changes have all been rather kind to Labor here, something not dented by the large swing last time round.

Fowler - grim banlieue upon grim banlieue and solidly Labor even in the 2011 state election nightmare. A huge swing (nearly 14pts) last time was mostly down to bizarre selection drama that reflected poorly on the ALP.

McMahon - this ought to be a safe Labor seat and will probably continue to be (and consider that my prediction), but if you were to pick a safe Sydney seat to be lost in an upset this would - given particularly grim 2011 results and the comparatively (but only comparatively!) low swing last time - perhaps be topping your list.

Richmond - a new age dawned nearly a decade ago in the most New Age of divisions. Labor hold.

Barton - ought to be secure enough. Labor hold.

Werriwa - this has been floated around as a possible upset, but it's worth noting that the large swing here last time was to a large extent due to the same absurdity that caused an even larger swing in Fowler. Notably, Labor won't have been far behind here even in the catastrophic state election. Ought to be a hold, then.

Kingsford Smith - demographic changes and a large swing last time means that this looks at least halfway vulnerable for the first time since more or less ever. Still think Labor will hold.

Dobell - circumstances are beyond atrocious and a hold seems extremely unlikely. Of course (and mentioned just because) this was also true of neighbouring Robertson last time.

Parramatta - I would give a very slight edge towards a hold here, but would not be surprised at either outcome.

Eden-Monaro - can rural incumbent strength cancel out a general swing? Again? I think so, maybe. Just about.

Page - as Eden-Monaro, but with even less confidence.

Reid - the name of Reid has traditionally (ironically) gone to safe Labor seats, but the last redistribution changed that. Still, the swing was so large last time and the division so neatly polarised that it might not be as horribly vulnerable as it looks? Nonetheless, I suspect a loss, but a hold wouldn't come as a total shock.

Banks - looks horrifically vulnerable, but is perhaps a little less so than it looks: is there really much more room for swing? The Liberals won everything here in the Great Electoral Fiasco of 2011 (of course) but not by massive margins, something that ought to cause at least a little pause. Genuinely unsure about this one.

Lindsay - too much has been written about Lindsay over the years, so I'll just predict defe...

Robertson - asking for lightening to strike twice is probably asking for a little much.

Greenway - Liberal candidate woes have turned a probable gain into something quite messy and unpredictable. Sufficiently so that I shall not predict.

[Sibboleth]

New South Wales - Coalition & Other

Note that I'm not bothering with Coalition seats with margins over 6% without very good reason.

Macquarie - named for a man who loved to name things after himself, this strange jumble of unalike places at the point at which raw physical geography halts the western sprawl of Sydney ought to be pretty safe given the general dynamics of the election (as it was during the Howard years), yet has been mentioned as a potential against-the-grain gain. I tend to think that's unlikely, but this is certainly worth keeping half an eye on just in case.

Macarthur - is, amusingly enough, named for one of Macquaries enemies. It's a big slice of exurban horror and will record a large swing to the Coalition.

Bennelong - see Lindsay, but here I expect the incumbent to ho

Hughes - will presumably see a large swing to the Coalition.

Gilmore - the Liberal margin here is greatly inflated by the (retiring) incumbent's personal vote. Were it not for the general atmosphere of the election I'd be calling a Labor gain here (it was that rarest of things last time: a Coalition seat where Labor polled more votes in the Senate elections), as it is a Liberal hold with a 'surprisingly' unimpressive swing seems likely.

Paterson - a comfortable Liberal hold is a dead cert.

Lyne - a straightforward gain for the Nationals.

New England - see Lyne. Note that until Windsor's victory in 2001, New England had always voted for the Nationals/Country Party/Whatever since the emergence of that straw-chewing political movement in 1919.

[Sibboleth]

Victoria - Labor seats

Batman - the only question is whether Labor win by a large margin (if the Greens come second) or an utterly mountainous one (if the Liberals do).

Gellibrand - absurdly safe seat in western Melbourne.

Gorton - another absurdly safe seat in western Melbourne, ironically so given who its named for.

Wills - Bob Hawke's old seat and named for a fatally incompetent explorer. It actually contains one of the Greens strongest districts in Melbourne (Brunswick) but unlike Batman they missed out on second last time. Not that it matters.

Lalor - this ever growing (and ever cut back on at redistribution time) patch of western Melbourne suburbia was Julia Gillard's seat. The loss of her personal vote will have some kind of impact on the swing, but the seat will remain monstrously safe.

Scullin - solid block of solidly proletarian northern Melbourne suburbia.

Calwell - appropriately named not just because Calwell was Labor, but because of his role in boosting the number of immigrants from non-British countries (provided they were white countries, of course).

Maribyrnong - the DLP might have re-grouped (ha, ha, ha) but they have no baleful electoral impact here these days.

Hotham - Crean's retirement and the subsequent messy preselection drama could perhaps do things with the swing, but this is still very safe.

Holt - someone should make sure that this division has a coastline. Poor taste? Anyway, a safe seat these days, but a former Liberal MP for Holt was once a Conservative MP for the old Wrekin constituency in Shropshire (Bill Yates).

Corio - the first non-Melbourne division (it's based around Geelong), though still rather safe.

Ballarat - the transformation of this seat into a safe one has been a strange thing to behold, but safe it is for now.

Jagajaga - safe seat that tends not to swing so much anyway.

Isaacs - this was a marginal not so long ago at all, but looks utterly secure at present.

Bendigo - is an open seat and as such may be unusually prone to a fairly large swing. Still, Labor's continued victories in the area at state level seem to argue against the sort monstrous swing needed to actually threaten Labor's hold here.

McEwen - boundary changes have turned this rapidly growing lump of exurbia into a safe Labor seat, at least on paper. Reality could be less friendly, but this shouldn't be close.

Melbourne Ports - one of the lowest swinging seats in Australia for various structural reasons, thus another solid (worst case 'solid enough') Labor hold is basically certain.

Bruce - there's a bit more room for a swing here, but it includes Dandenong so...

Chisholm - this really ought to be held, but if the likely Coalition victory is at the upper end of the scale of possibilities, might - just - fall. In other words, it's high on the list of possibilities for 'cold sick' losses, if it's that sort of election.

La Trobe - given that this is a natural Liberal seat gained when Labor had a Victorian leader, defeat really does look very, very likely. Of course if Rudd somehow clings to power, then a failure-to-gain here would be a 'cold sick' result for Liberal supporters...

Deakin - looks pretty much gone.

Corangamite - again...

[timrollpickering]

Sept 2, 2013 16:25:22 GMT Sibboleth said:

Reid - the name of Reid has traditionally (ironically) gone to safe Labor seats,

Not as ironic as you might think. There's quite a bit of Labor admiration for pre-Federation Reid - Bob Carr is probably the most notable - and he had a good alliance with Labor at the time.

Sept 2, 2013 16:26:14 GMT Sibboleth said:

New South Wales - Coalition & Other

Lyne - a straightforward gain for the Nationals.

New England - see Lyne. Note that until Windsor's victory in 2001, New England had always voted for the Nationals/Country Party/Whatever since the emergence of that straw-chewing political movement in 1919.

With Oakeshott's retirement the Nationals' biggest challenge was probably in Coalition negotiations. Had the Liberals stood here they may well have taken the seat but at the cost of a wider battle over the future of the Nationals as a separate concern - they would probably have contested Hume. Their Throsby candidate looks like a safe release of steam.

In New England Tony Windsor has endorsed a random indy candidate but Barnaby Joyce has his own degree of independence (God help Tony Abbott if he ever winds up as PM with Joyce as his Deputy!)

Sept 2, 2013 16:27:19 GMT Sibboleth said:

Victoria - Labor seats

Batman - the only question is whether Labor win by a large margin (if the Greens come second) or an utterly mountainous one (if the Liberals do).

Anyone got the most recent stats on how well the Greens and Libs each flow to Labor when their HTVs recommend that?

Holt - someone should make sure that this division has a coastline. Poor taste?

It's inland but I'm sure it has some swimming pools.

[Sibboleth]

Presumably. Though the famous Harold Holt Memorial Swimming Centre is in Higgins.

[Andrew_S]

Australians are interviewed about compulsory voting:

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-23819068

[Sibboleth]

Victoria - Coalition & Other

Melbourne - basically this depends on how loyal Liberal voters are to their cards. So it's basically not possible to call it with any safety, though a Labor gain from the Greens is more likely on a balance of probabilities basis. Either way, an anti-Coalition seat.

Aston - this seat is prone to absurdly large swings (back in 2004 it was the 'safest' Liberal seat in Melbourne IIRC) and, given the general tone of the election, will presumably deliver one in the general direction of the Coalition.

Dunkley - the follies of one of its state MPs can hardly be welcome for the incumbent given the tight margin here, and if there is an against-the-grain result in Victoria it would presumably be here... but I don't think such a result is likely.

McMillan - should be safe enough, given the election.

Higgins - no chance.

Indi - a safe Liberal seat under threat from a Natdependent (as part of a baroque response/revenge for the Liberals contesting Mallee?). I don't know enough to make a serious prediction, but I'll call Independent gain for the sake of hilarity (Mirabella being an objectively awful human being and all that). The result will have no impact on the wider result.

Mallee - in what the Nationals presumably regard as a dick move, the Liberals are contesting this open Nationals seat. In what the Nationals presumably regard as an act of malicious trolling, Labor are directing preferences to the Liberal. The last time Mallee was open the same thing happened and the Nationals nearly lost the seat. Will tentatively call a Nationals hold regardless, as they have a very strong candidate.

[timrollpickering]

Sept 4, 2013 17:37:21 GMT Sibboleth said:

Victoria - Coalition & Other
Indi - a safe Liberal seat under threat from a Natdependent (as part of a baroque response/revenge for the Liberals contesting Mallee?). I don't know enough to make a serious prediction, but I'll call Independent gain for the sake of hilarity (Mirabella being an objectively awful human being and all that). The result will have no impact on the wider result.

Mallee - in what the Nationals presumably regard as a dick move, the Liberals are contesting this open Nationals seat. In what the Nationals presumably regard as an act of malicious trolling, Labor are directing preferences to the Liberal. The last time Mallee was open the same thing happened and the Nationals nearly lost the seat. Will tentatively call a Nationals hold regardless, as they have a very strong candidate.

The Vic Nats' official revenge has been to stand in Bendigo, though that probably wouldn't have any impact, and Corangamite, which could be rather messier in a tight contest. There have been times in the past when the Coalition parties have between them had over 50% at the three party stage but lose the seat to Labor on leakage.

However in Indi the, erm, indie has a lot of local National backing, a second place in opinion polls and both Labor & the Greens directing preferences. For some reason strong women in politics always attract the most hatred whether they're on the right or the left. Could this be the Wilson Tuckey moment of this election?

[Deleted]

Another poll out in Melbourne, almost 50% of Liberals set to ignore the party line and pref. Green above Labour, also shows Labour down 8%. Looks pretty good really.

[timrollpickering]

We'e sceptical about constituency polling as it is but preference polling? A lot of voters follow the HTV no matter what they may say in advance. I suspect the Greens' best tactic would be to get some fake Liberal activists out and issue their own dodgy HTV. Hilarious if it got the Libs into second place.

[johnloony]

Aug 29, 2013 6:53:37 GMT doktorb🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️ said:

As I understand it, that advert has been banned from TV because of the pro-euthanasia position. It will be interesting to see how much difference will be made by the extra publicity from the Streisand effect.

[Deleted]

The indie in Indi was endorsed by Tony Windsor in his retirement press conference and appears to have been riding off the publicity ever since (Windsor being one of the people Mirabella got on especially badly with in the last parliament).

Another story bubbling under is the modest rise of the Palmer United Party which has been ticking up in recent polls, mainly at the expense of Labor. Clive Palmer himself is standing in Fairfax, a vacant LNP seat in QLD.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

All the polls were pointing, fairly consistently, to a comfortable Coalition win, and then today:

‏@electionista
Australia - Essential Research poll: primary votes: ALP 35%, L-NP 43%, Greens 10%. Two-party-preferred: ALP 52%, L-NP 48% #AusVotes

Essential are a Labor-aligned company but their previous polls had not been out of line with the others.

[iainbhx]

Sept 5, 2013 8:05:07 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

All the polls were pointing, fairly consistently, to a comfortable Coalition win, and then today:

‏@electionista
Australia - Essential Research poll: primary votes: ALP 35%, L-NP 43%, Greens 10%. Two-party-preferred: ALP 52%, L-NP 48% #AusVotes

Essential are a Labor-aligned company but their previous polls had not been out of line with the others.

That's quite a change. Let's see if anything else backs it up.

[Deleted]

There were two more polls published on Thursday, Reachtel and Galaxy both showing 53-47 2pp.

[timrollpickering]

Sept 5, 2013 6:44:40 GMT @strinity said:

The indie in Indi was endorsed by Tony Windsor in his retirement press conference and appears to have been riding off the publicity ever since (Windsor being one of the people Mirabella got on especially badly with in the last parliament).

Can't say I'm surprised given the combination. It's such a pity Windsor didn't hang around for a showdown with Barnaby Joyce.