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Post by Andrew_S on Aug 24, 2013 16:27:04 GMT
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Post by Andrew_S on Aug 24, 2013 19:47:38 GMT
Being pedantic as usual, I hate to criticise Antony Green but with his election pendulum he hasn't bothered to go further than one decimal place with his majorities so that his list isn't always correct when two or more seats have the same percentage majority to one decimal place. In these cases he simply lists them alphabetically. For example, Blair and Page both have Labor margins (actually the majority divided by two in UK terms) of 4.2% and Green puts Blair as the more marginal of the two because it comes first alphabetically. But the Labor margin is 4.24% in Blair, and 4.19% in Page, so Page is in fact the more marginal seat. Eden-Monaro also has a margin of 4.2% and is the least marginal of the three seats when you go to more than one decimal place: www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2013/guide/pendulum/ |
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Post by Andrew_S on Aug 24, 2013 21:35:13 GMT
"Labor is facing a wipeout in must-win seats along the eastern seaboard as the federal election campaign enters its final fortnight.
An exclusive Galaxy Poll for the Herald Sun reveals the marginal Victorian seats of Corangamite and La Trobe are set to fall to the Coalition on September 7.
Five critical Labor-held seats in western Sydney are also likely to tumble, including heartland seats such as Gough Whitlam's former electorate of Werriwa.
And the ALP's hope that it could make up losses by winning seats in Queensland has taken a blow, with a surprise Guardian poll reporting PM Kevin Rudd trailing in his own Brisbane seat."www.heraldsun.com.au/news/special-features/galaxy-poll-reveals-marginal-seats-labor-must-win-likely-to-be-taken-by-coalition/story-fnho52jj-1226702447893
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Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
Posts: 19,052
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Post by Richard Allen on Aug 24, 2013 21:41:41 GMT
Would be hilarious to see Rudd lose his seat.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Aug 24, 2013 21:51:54 GMT
Won't happen. The electorate polls don't correspond at all with the national polls.
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Post by Andrew_S on Aug 24, 2013 21:54:41 GMT
Won't happen. The electorate polls don't correspond at all with the national polls. Maybe the swing against Labor is much lower in some places like WA, SA, Tasmania compared to Queensland/Victoria? I don't know but that's possible. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Aug 24, 2013 22:10:41 GMT
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Aug 24, 2013 23:26:26 GMT
Won't happen. The electorate polls don't correspond at all with the national polls. Maybe the swing against Labor is much lower in some places like WA, SA, Tasmania compared to Queensland/Victoria? I don't know but that's possible. The national breakdowns have suggested a small swing to Labor in Qld, though this has been dissipating along with the Rudd bounce. It would be very odd if Rudd's seat was vulnerable on current national polling - the comparison with Bennelong in 2007 is not well made because, regardless of Howard, that seat had become a marginal of the kind Labor needed for a majority. By contrast Rudd's seat is the safest for Labor in Qld and was not thought to be vulnerable even in the depths of Gillard's unpopularity. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Aug 24, 2013 23:55:03 GMT
There have been boundary changes in Victoria and South Australia, with every seat apart from one in each state affected: Ballarat is unchanged in VIC and Grey in SA. This means 46 seats have been altered, 36 in VIC and 10 in SA. In only 9 seats has the margin (which is the same as swing required by the second-placed party with 2PP) changed by 1% or more: 1. Casey (VIC): from Coalition 4.2% to 1.9%. 2. Deakin (VIC): from Labor 2.4% to 0.6%. 3. Gorton (VIC): from Labor 22.2% to 23.6%. 4. Higgins (VIC): from Coalition 6.8% to 5.4%. 5. McEwen (VIC): from Labor 5.3% to 9.2%. 6. Port Adelaide (SA): from Labor 20.0% to 21.0%. 7. Scullin (VIC): from Labor 22.3% to 20.6%. 8. Wakefield (SA): from Labor 12.0% to 10.5%. 9. Wannon (VIC): from Coalition 7.3% to 5.7% No seats notionally changed hands as a result of the boundary review. www.aec.gov.au/About_AEC/Publications/Fact_Sheets/national-seat-status.htm |
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Post by timrollpickering on Aug 25, 2013 21:47:24 GMT
Won't happen. The electorate polls don't correspond at all with the national polls. Maybe the swing against Labor is much lower in some places like WA, SA, Tasmania compared to Queensland/Victoria? I don't know but that's possible. WA has been swinging against Labor for a while - is there really much more to be lost there? But these constituency polls seem worse than ours. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Aug 25, 2013 22:00:56 GMT
Maybe the swing against Labor is much lower in some places like WA, SA, Tasmania compared to Queensland/Victoria? I don't know but that's possible. WA has been swinging against Labor for a while - is there really much more to be lost there? But these constituency polls seem worse than ours. Replacing Gillard with Rudd at the eleventh hour was always going to look either very clever or very stupid. At the moment it seems like the latter, which actually surprises me a bit. Maybe Rudd should have called the election as soon as possible rather than waiting until September. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Aug 27, 2013 0:30:31 GMT
"A record 1 717 candidates have nominated to contest the 2013 federal election, Electoral Commissioner, Ed Killesteyn announced today. This compares to 1 198 candidates who contested the 2010 federal election, and represents an increase of 43 per cent. This national figure includes 529 Senate candidates for the 40 Senate vacancies and 1 188 candidates for the 150 House of Representatives seats across Australia." www.aec.gov.au/about_aec/media_releases/2013/e08-16a.htm |
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Post by Andrew_S on Aug 27, 2013 20:08:52 GMT
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 29, 2013 6:53:37 GMT
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Post by Andrew_S on Aug 29, 2013 16:15:24 GMT
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seanf
Non-Aligned
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Post by seanf on Aug 30, 2013 9:16:18 GMT
The likely outcome seems quite clear.
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seanf
Non-Aligned
Posts: 631
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Post by seanf on Aug 30, 2013 9:26:52 GMT
The mutual loathing between Gillard and Rudd has been extraordinary.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,946
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 30, 2013 10:16:54 GMT
Yup - puts even late period Blair-Brown in the shade  |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
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Post by Sibboleth on Aug 30, 2013 18:47:50 GMT
It's been bad even by the standards of the ALP; which is saying something. In retrospect it was a mistake to oust Beazley back in 2006.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,036
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Post by Sibboleth on Aug 30, 2013 18:49:20 GMT
Anyway, the only question seems to be the scale of defeat; could be quite large, could still be rather narrow. A Keating-style upset is unlikely; Abbott is many things, but probably not so much of an obvious fool as Hewson.
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