Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 15, 2013 16:37:42 GMT
The coalition have announced they'll preference the Greens last and Labor looks likely to do the same. Both are quite clear that they mean to put the Greens sole MP out of the House of Reps. It's quite an odditity that Bandt was elected on effectively conservative preferences last time You can't put all the problem parties last and it's standard for the big parties to put all acceptable small parties & indies before the main opponents. ISTR Bob Katter has been elected at least once on Labour preferences. Most of the indies have similarly benefitted regardless of what side of the party they're on. Occasionally a party comes along who get declared non-ministrable and that can complicate the HTVs - you can't scream "Put Labor LAST" with either One Nation on the ballot or a decision the Greens are worse, and in by-elections swamped with fringe parties and obscure indies advocating a donkey vote is standard but again messy if it has to detour to put someone last. I'm not sure how reliable constituency polls are and election campaigns can drown out local member factors. There haven't been that many urban idependents/others to compare to. Two of those are in Western Australia and Tasmania, which have been their stronger states, helped by the relative historic weakness of Labor and the Liberals respectively. The thid is South Australia which could be the trickiest to predict. One messy factor is whether or not Nick Xenophon exercises the right of incumbents to restand as a single candidate with a group voting ticket or whether he assembles a mates' slate. If he gets quota again this decision will have major repercussions on where his surplus goes at which stage. Is that the Shooters & Fishers Party or some other body? I take your point on constituency polling, it's definitely not as accurate or easy to do as national polls. Here's the poll anyway:-  |
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Aug 15, 2013 16:41:01 GMT
There's been another poll of the division of Melbourne that shows less pleasing figures for Bandt. Though, in all honesty, the record of constituency polling in Australia may actually be worse than in this country, so...
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Post by timrollpickering on Aug 15, 2013 17:03:34 GMT
And the Greens have been twice thwarted in the state seat since Aug 2010 - in the state general latr that year the Liberals reversed their preference recommendation and it saved the seat for Labor. In a by-election a year ago the Libs didn't stand and although the Greens had both a primary & 2PP swing it wasn't enough.
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Aug 15, 2013 17:26:01 GMT
In both state seats no less: Richmond - which covers the east of the federal seat - has also stubbornly refused to budge. The Greens were actually closer in Brunswick, which is in the division of Wills (alas for the Greenies the rest of said division remains solidly proletarian and so Green unfriendly).
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Post by iainbhx on Aug 15, 2013 17:37:29 GMT
In both state seats no less: Richmond - which covers the east of the federal seat - has also stubbornly refused to budge. The Greens were actually closer in Brunswick, which is in the division of Wills (alas for the Greenies the rest of said division remains solidly proletarian and so Green unfriendly). That doesn't surprise me at all. Brunswick is full of hipsters, Richmond is a pretty solid suburb. If the two were swapped, Bandt would be invincible. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 15, 2013 18:13:53 GMT
'Raising the standards' - Labor
'Hiding' - Labor
'A New Hope' - Liberal
A longer Liberal broadcast.
'Standing up for what matters' - Greens
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Andrew_S
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Post by Andrew_S on Aug 16, 2013 11:46:08 GMT
Australian election debate:
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Post by markgoodair on Aug 16, 2013 16:47:46 GMT
A record 1188 candidates are standing for the House of Representatives and 529 for the Senate.
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Post by timrollpickering on Aug 16, 2013 17:59:08 GMT
7.92 candidates per House seat.
13.225 candidates per Senate seat being contested.
(36 state Senators have long terms. Being elected are the 36 state Senators with short terms and all 4 territory Senators.)
Melbourne (currently Green) has the largest number of candidates - 16, a new record for a general election.
MAIN, Anthony (No description)
ARMISTEAD, Sean Liberal
BORLAND, Kate Independent
WALKER, Noelle Family First Party
BANDT, Adam The Greens
BOWTELL, Cath Australian Labor Party
VRBNJAK, Martin Palmer United Party
BAYLISS, Michael Stable Population Party
MURPHY, Michael DLP Democratic Labour
WALSHE, Nyree Animal Justice Party
DAVIDSON, Josh Bullet Train For Australia
KHOO, Joyce Mei Lin Rise Up Australia Party
WILDING, Royston Secular Party of Australia
MANGISI, James Sex Party
KIRKMAN, Frazer Independent
CUMMINS, Paul Australian Independents
Nick Xenophon has a notional party, the Nick Xenophon Group, which means his name will appear above the line on the ballot paper. He has a running mate so any surplus he gets will not immediately flow to other parties.
Every state has a record number of Senate candidates. If you want to vote below the line in New South Wales you have to mark all of 110 candidates over 45 columns with a ballot paper you can't fully unfold in the voting booth using very tiny fonts.
Tasmania normally has the highest rate of below the line votes for a state and this sometimes overturns the effects of party deals, helped by a much lower number of candidates and voters used to similar practices in the state elections, but this time there are 54 separate candidates.
Ten House seats with competing Liberal and National candidates. Five are in Western Australia and a sixth in South Australia where the Nats are an avowed independent force. The SA Nats are returning to the contest after not standing in 2010. The other seats are a very safe Labor in New South Wales, and three in Victoria - a safe Labor, an ulta marginal and a National held seat where the sitting member is retiring and where the Liberals have nearly taken the seat when they've stood in the past.
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Post by timrollpickering on Aug 16, 2013 18:07:31 GMT
Here's a voter in times past filling out one of the most notorious ballot papers:  Unfortunately the federal rules don't allow multiple rows so the Senate ballot papers are going to be even more of a joke. |
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Post by johnloony on Aug 17, 2013 3:20:22 GMT
There is an occasional publication called "Voting Matters" which is written by and for geeks within the Electoral Reform Society. Some years ago, Dr David Hill wrote an article "How to ruin STV" based on this phenomenon. www.votingmatters.org.uk/ISSUE12/P7.htm |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 19, 2013 0:16:51 GMT
Not entirely unexpected, but Labor have agreeed to preference the Greens 2nd in 5/6 states. Seems to have caused some internal discord which is always nice to hear  Meanwhile... things go downhill in Melbourne (or bad polling, who knows). Although, ironically, there are reports that the Labor candidate is struggling to match Bandt's fundraising, much of which has come from the unions..  |
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Post by slicesofjim on Aug 19, 2013 13:12:02 GMT
Anthony Main, running under 'No Description' in Melbourne, is a member of Socialist Alternative, the Australian sister party of the Socialist Party of England and Wales.
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Post by timrollpickering on Aug 19, 2013 13:38:26 GMT
Not entirely unexpected, but Labor have agreeed to preference the Greens 2nd in 5/6 states. Seems to have caused some internal discord which is always nice to hear Yeah it's been on for a few years, causing the ALP some consternation. There are individual Labor MPs who either have the Greens snapping at their heels who aren't too keen on the party or who are concerned about some of their policies - there's at least one MP who's said his HTV will put the Liberals above the Greens because of statements about Israel. |
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Post by timrollpickering on Aug 19, 2013 20:09:31 GMT
The big Green hope for a gain step forward is a Senate seat in the Australian Capital Territory. However they need to get the Liberal vote below quota first and they've also run into a snag from an action by them in the territory's coalition government. I am reminded of Malcolm Turnbull's comments "There's none so pure as the impotent." A different sort of Green elaborates: blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2013/08/senate-preferences-act.htmlOoh this could be fun... |
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Post by markgoodair on Aug 21, 2013 17:25:45 GMT
The wheels have come off the wikileaks party. Their second Senate candidate in Victoria, Leslie Cannord has resigned over voting preferences.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Aug 21, 2013 18:15:30 GMT
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Post by markgoodair on Aug 22, 2013 8:50:51 GMT
Get him shipped off to Sweden. |
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Andrew_S
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Post by Andrew_S on Aug 24, 2013 14:52:56 GMT
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 24, 2013 15:25:17 GMT
Further polling has shown Labor behind in the 10 most marginal seats with Rudd himself not doing well in his own division. Not looking good for Labor. |
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