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Post by iainbhx on Sept 7, 2013 10:54:25 GMT
Are you suggesting the Phillipino background of the Liberal candidate cost them the seat? I think it might have been his abysmal televison fail rather than his background. Only 58.5% of Greenaway residents were born in Australia. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Sept 7, 2013 10:55:22 GMT
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 7, 2013 10:56:44 GMT
Are you suggesting the Phillipino background of the Liberal candidate cost them the seat? Australia's Ed Matts. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Sept 7, 2013 10:57:21 GMT
Australian commentators don't seem to have woken up to the fact that seats with large numbers of immigrants might not have swung to the Coalition in the way that other seats have. If they'd studied British election results from the 1970s onwards they might have realised there was a possibility that might happen.
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am
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Post by am on Sept 7, 2013 11:08:50 GMT
Lucky escape for Labour given their extraordinary disunity. The fact that there have only been in for 6 years is probably what helped as well. The massacre that was predicted hasn't happened. Looks like losses of between 15 seats for Labour nowhere near the 30 predicted. No seats lost in Queensland which is a surprise & several marginals in NSW held. Labour can rebuild quickly. Impressed by ABC coverage. BBC should learn from it sober serious analysis and less vacuous commentary.
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Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
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Post by Richard Allen on Sept 7, 2013 11:12:09 GMT
Probably a good result for the Coalition though. It is a very solid majority and they may be able to avoid the hubris that often comes with a landslide win.
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Post by Andrew_S on Sept 7, 2013 11:12:28 GMT
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Post by iainbhx on Sept 7, 2013 11:14:41 GMT
That seat may not be over yet, some people are getting over-excited about the transfer patterns. Talking of wacky transfer patterns, whilst the number of Senate votes counted in NSW is very low, the sixth seat is currently falling to the Oxley Moron. I do hope this doesn't last. |
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Post by timrollpickering on Sept 7, 2013 11:14:59 GMT
Both of the Northern Territory seats look interesting. Not entirely impossible that they could swap over between Labor and CLP. Not too surprising given the way the last territory election turned things on their head. But another jolt to the way things go up there. The results probably also mean Labor have retained their NT Senate seat - there was a possibility they could drop below quota and be vulnerable to all the other parties preferencing First Nations first. Australian commentators don't seem to have woken up to the fact that seats with large numbers of immigrants might not have swung to the Coalition in the way that other seats have. If they'd studied British election results from the 1970s onwards they might have realised there was a possibility that might happen. Patterns differ across countries and remember that given Australia's location a lot of immigrants arrive already sceptical about the left. The main driver of some immigrant community voting patterns tended to be how the parties reacted to the One Nation growth in the 1990s but the NSW Librals at least have been reconnecting and had some especially big swings in high immigrant areas in the last state election. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 7, 2013 11:26:39 GMT
For the benefit of viewers in Hans Crescent, let's have an early look at the Wikileaks Party:
New South Wales: 1.02%
Victoria: 1.95%
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Post by Andrew_S on Sept 7, 2013 11:29:19 GMT
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Post by finsobruce on Sept 7, 2013 11:30:34 GMT
Lucky escape for Labour given their extraordinary disunity. The fact that there have only been in for 6 years is probably what helped as well. The massacre that was predicted hasn't happened. Looks like losses of between 15 seats for Labour nowhere near the 30 predicted. No seats lost in Queensland which is a surprise & several marginals in NSW held. Labour can rebuild quickly. Impressed by ABC coverage. BBC should learn from it sober serious analysis and less vacuous commentary. I suppose that part of the rationale for bringing Rudd back was that he could shore up support in Queensland - which he seems to have done. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 7, 2013 11:37:36 GMT
PS if you are of a nervous disposition, don't look at the early Senate projections from NSW.
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seanf
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Post by seanf on Sept 7, 2013 11:45:00 GMT
I wonder if the poll gap would have narrowed slightly under Gillard. The Coalition's win seems pretty emphatic, even if not quite a landslide.
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Post by iainbhx on Sept 7, 2013 11:46:40 GMT
PS if you are of a nervous disposition, don't look at the early Senate projections from NSW. ABC have admitted they have a problem with both the NSW and VIC Senate predictors (and have just taken them off) Looks like Palmer has a Senator in QLD. |
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Post by iainbhx on Sept 7, 2013 11:47:46 GMT
I wonder if the poll gap would have narrowed slightly under Gillard. The Coalition's win seems pretty emphatic, even if not quite a landslide. Looking at the seats held, I think that comes under Questions to which the answer is no. |
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seanf
Non-Aligned
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Post by seanf on Sept 7, 2013 11:51:23 GMT
What does Palmer United stand for?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 7, 2013 11:52:47 GMT
Rudd's concession speech does not appear to be including a pledge to step down as Labor leader. Indeed it's quite a rabble-rousing speech (including a dig at News Corp). I wonder if he plans to hang around...
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 7, 2013 11:56:24 GMT
Scratch that - he's resigning.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
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Post by Sibboleth on Sept 7, 2013 11:58:55 GMT
Basic pattern very clear now (obviously). Some of the closer seats will do weird things, but that won't be sorted for days.
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