By-elections - 28 February 2013

[East Anglian Lefty]

Mar 1, 2013 11:01:11 GMT Pimpernal said:

Mar 1, 2013 1:22:08 GMT East Anglian Lefty said:

Vote totals from the Wirral, according to a local journo's tweet:

Lab 1411, Con 868, LD 834, UKIP 426, Green 74, EngDem 53

What's really encouraging for Labour is that the majority is larger than the UKIP vote.

What's really encouraging about that?

It means we didn't just win because the right vote was divided. The demographics don't exactly scream likely Labour victory, so anywhere outside Merseyside our only shot at victory would be for UKIP to split the Tory vote enough to let us in.

[Pete Whitehead]

..or even some places on Merseyside (see Harrington 2012)

[Pimpernal]

Mar 1, 2013 13:11:51 GMT East Anglian Lefty said:

Mar 1, 2013 11:01:11 GMT Pimpernal said:

What's really encouraging about that?

It means we didn't just win because the right vote was divided. The demographics don't exactly scream likely Labour victory, so anywhere outside Merseyside our only shot at victory would be for UKIP to split the Tory vote enough to let us in.

Ahh I see... understood

[middleenglander]

Ashford BC, Beaver - Labour hold

Party	2013 votes	2013 share	since 2011 by-election	since 2011 "top"	since 2011 "average"	since 2007 "top"	since 2007 "average"
Labour	296	35.8%	-1.7%	-3.0%	-5.7%	-13.9%	-14.1%
Conservative	158	19.1%	-8.7%	-17.3%	-14.9%	-14.7%	-14.7%
UKIP	155	18.8%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Ashford Ind	85	10.3%	-2.1%	-14.5%	-14.3%	-6.2%	-6.0%
Lib Dems	79	9.6%	-9.8%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Independent	34	4.1%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Green	19	2.3%	-0.3%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Total votes	826		-69	-415	-332	-289	-276

Swing Conservative to Labour 3.5% since November 2011, 7.1% on "top" vote and 4.6% on "average" vote since May  2011 but little swing since 2007

Kingston-upon-Thames LB, Berryhill - Lib Dem hold

Party	2013 votes	2013 share	since 2010 "top"	since 2010 "average"	since 2006 "top"	since 2006 "average"
Lib Dems	948	38.7%	-4.7%	-3.0%	-4.9%	-4.2%
Conservative	761	31.0%	-5.0%	-6.5%	-8.1%	-8.6%
Labour	455	18.6%	+9.2%	+9.5%	+13.2%	+13.6%
UKIP	175	7.1%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Green	112	4.6%	-4.8%	-5.4%	-4.6%	-5.0%
Christian PA			-1.7%	-1.7%	-2.7%	-2.8%
Total votes	2,451		-2,928	-2,626	-1,118	-977

Swing Conservative to Lib Dem 0.1% since 2010 on "top" share , 1.7% on "average" share whilst around 2% since 2006 on both measures.

North Lanarkshire UA, Coatbridge West - Labour hold

Party	2013 votes	2013 share	since 2012	since 2007
Labour	2,145	78.8%	+4.0%	+12.0%
SNP	452	16.6%	-5.8%	-7.7%
Conservative	71	2.6%	-0.2%	-2.4%
UKIP	34	1.2%	from nowhere	from nowhere
Lib Dems	19	0.7%	from nowhere	from nowhere
SSP				-3.8%
Total votes	2,721		-1,109	-2,288

Swing SNP to Labour 4.9% since 2012 and 10% since 2007

Wirral MB, Pensby & Thingwall - Labour gain from Conservative

Party	2013 votes	2013 share	since 2012	since 2011	since 2010 "top"	since 2010 "average"
Labour	1,411	38.5%	+5.7%	+6.4%	+19.1%	+17.0%
Conservative	868	23.7%	-4.7%	-13.2%	-8.0%	-7.1%
Lib Dems	834	22.7%	-2.4%	-1.0%	-13.8%	-12.0%
UKIP	426	11.6%	+2.4%	+7.8%	+5.0%	+4.6%
Green	74	2.0%	-2.4%	-1.5%	-3.7%	-4.0%
Eng Dem	53	1.4%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Total votes	3,666		-620	-1,436	-4,150	-3,762

Swing Conservative to Labour 5.2% since 2012, 9.8% since 2011 and some 12% / 13% since 2010
- with swing Lib Dems to Labour 4.0% since 2012, 3.7% since 2011 and 15% / 17% since 2010

[Khunanup]

Mar 2, 2013 22:31:43 GMT @trident said:

Mar 1, 2013 1:34:19 GMT Khunanup said:

Pleased with our vote in the circumstances. Compared to other parts of the Wirral, it keeps us around and about for the future. Excellent result for Labour.

I think you are setting your sights low - the LibDem share was about 3% down on May last year and they came third in a ward where you currently have a councillor (his seat is up in 2014). Although as you point out, it compares favourably with other former LibDem seats on the Wirral like Bromborough, Clatterbridge and Prenton where the vote has just evaporated since they lost the seats.

I'm afraid that outside of Oxton and Eastham we have no choice but to set our sights low and just keep with a decent share so that when more favourable circumstances arise we can take advantage of them. Labour's challenge of course is trying to make these inroads into uncharted territory stick when you go back into government. With the Wirral's fickle electorate that could prove very tricky.

[thirdchill]

Labour may well gain Pensby and Thingwall again in 2014 but the by-election gain will be difficult to hold onto in 2015 will be difficult if the local elections are the same day as the general election.

[East Anglian Lefty]

Mar 3, 2013 21:41:30 GMT thirdchill said:

Labour may well gain Pensby and Thingwall again in 2014 but the by-election gain will be difficult to hold onto in 2015 will be difficult if the local elections are the same day as the general election.

I tend to doubt that. The Labour share in Pensby & Thingwall in 2010 was over 20%, about the same as in the other Wirral West wards bar Upton, but the Tory share was the second lowest, only marginally better than in Upton. In 2011, the Tory lead over Labour was 245 votes, but Labour were well behind over the constituency as a whole, by around 2500 votes. On that basis, it looks like Labour would win the ward if they were also winning the parliamentary seat.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Very interesting comment on ConservativeHome by 'Goodisonlad':

The loss of Pensby and Thingwall was a disgrace and I blame Wirral West Association entirely. Dreadful Association. The by-election was caused by the resignation of a "Tory" who was elected in 2010. He had form on this having first being elected in 1983 and standing down early in 1986 while in 2006 he urged electors to vote Lib Dem
A month ago in Wirral we held on to the adjacent Heswall Ward while we won Leasowe Ward from the Labour Party. Leasowe & Moreton East is only three miles from Pensby & Thingwall in distance but thirty years in campaigning techniques. Leasowe and Moreton East has two large Council Estates in the Ward. Pensby & Thingwall has probably no more than 300 council properties in the Ward. All the indices such as age profile, percentage in employment, housing tenure, educational levels are more anti-Tory in Leasowe
Commenting on the Leasowe victory I said, “Trouble is neighbouring constituency association of Wirral West is so dreadful, they are on course to lose the Pensby & Thingwall by-election next month and where were Wirral West Conservative last night? Yes a few individuals were helping in Leasowe but their Chairman instructed them to telephone canvass from their HQ and few of their Constituency Officers helped-they really should get over their dislike of Wallasey” Basically the Wirral West Chairman and Officers think they can learn nothing from Wallasey. The Wirral West Chairman refused to help in Leasowe because he didn’t like the Conservative agent in Leasowe ( I gather she’s a former Wirral West Chairman herself) Despite previous lessons they chose a candidate who lived not just outside the ward but outside the Constituency and in all honesty was too old. The literature was mediocre. Seemingly they were using Merlin incorrectly until mid-campaign. They let petty political differences dominate political campaigns. He’s been around the party for thirty years and has learned nothing and still thinks of campaigning in 1980s terms. No doubt they’ll blame nasty UKIP but even then the numbers don’t add up. Even if every UKIP voter has voted for the Tory candidate, Labour still would have won
This result demonstrates that without the boundary changes, Wirral West is well on the way to being lost to Labour (again !) and if Esther McVey want to keep the seat, she should purge her constituency officers and bring in the team that won Leasowe.

[Pete Whitehead]

Mar 3, 2013 21:51:50 GMT East Anglian Lefty said:

Mar 3, 2013 21:41:30 GMT thirdchill said:

Labour may well gain Pensby and Thingwall again in 2014 but the by-election gain will be difficult to hold onto in 2015 will be difficult if the local elections are the same day as the general election.

I tend to doubt that. The Labour share in Pensby & Thingwall in 2010 was over 20%, about the same as in the other Wirral West wards bar Upton, but the Tory share was the second lowest, only marginally better than in Upton. In 2011, the Tory lead over Labour was 245 votes, but Labour were well behind over the constituency as a whole, by around 2500 votes. On that basis, it looks like Labour would win the ward if they were also winning the parliamentary seat.

Yes by my reckoning, the Tories 'won' the ward by only about 150 votes (or 2%) in the 2010 general election