Prediction Competition - January 2020

[robbienicoll]

Welcome back and Happy New Year to everyone. I'm very glad that middleenglander is back to posting with us and am more than happy to either keep moderating or return to joining in with the competition depending on what his plans are. For the meantime I'll get this one underway.

There appears to be 8 by-elections during January:
- 1 on 16th January
- 5 on 23rd including a “double election”
- 2 on 30th

1 of the by-elections is for a District Council seat which was elected in 2019,
1 is for a Unitary Authority last elected in 2016,
1 is for a County Council last elected in 2017,
1 are for a Scottish authority last elected in 2017,
4 including one “double election” are for London Metropolitan Boroughs last elected in 2018

Conservatives defend 3 seats, 1 following the death of the previous Councillor and 2 a resignation,
Labour defend 5 seats including both seats in the “double election”, 1 following the death of the previous Councillor and 4 following resignations,

With all seats having declared nominations:
Conservatives have a full slate of 8 candidates, Labour have 8, Liberal Democrats have 7, Greens have 8, SNP have 1 and West Suffolk Independents have 2
- a total of 34 candidates for 8 seats.

Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am on day of the election.

[Tony Otim]

Jan 12, 2020 15:26:20 GMT robbienicoll said:

Welcome back and Happy New Year to everyone. I'm very glad that middleenglander is back to posting with us and am more than happy to either keep moderating or return to joining in with the competition depending on what his plans are. For the meantime I'll get this one underway.

There appears to be 9 by-elections during January:
- 1 on 16th January
- 5 on 23rd including a “double election”
- 2 on 30th

1 of the by-elections is for a District Council seat which was elected in 2019,
2 are for County Councils last elected in 2019,
1 are for a Scottish authority last elected in 2017,
4 including one “double election” are for London Metropolitan Boroughs last elected in 2018

Conservatives defend 3 seats, 1 following the death of the previous Councillor and 2 a resignation,
Labour defend 5 seats including both seats in the “double election”, 1 following the death of the previous Councillor and 4 following resignations,

With all seats having declared nominations:
Conservatives have a full slate of 8 candidates, Labour have 8, Liberal Democrats have 7, Greens have 8, SNP have 1 and West Suffolk Independents have 2
- a total of 34 candidates for 8 seats.

Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am on day of the election.

I hate to be so pernickity, but it would be 8 in total, not 9, and only 1 for a county council seat, which was last elected in 2017, the other one is for a unitary last elected in 2016 (Bristol).

Otherwise, many thanks for your work on this.

[robbienicoll]

Jan 12, 2020 20:05:35 GMT Tony Otim said:

Jan 12, 2020 15:26:20 GMT robbienicoll said:

Welcome back and Happy New Year to everyone. I'm very glad that middleenglander is back to posting with us and am more than happy to either keep moderating or return to joining in with the competition depending on what his plans are. For the meantime I'll get this one underway.

There appears to be 9 by-elections during January:
- 1 on 16th January
- 5 on 23rd including a “double election”
- 2 on 30th

1 of the by-elections is for a District Council seat which was elected in 2019,
2 are for County Councils last elected in 2019,
1 are for a Scottish authority last elected in 2017,
4 including one “double election” are for London Metropolitan Boroughs last elected in 2018

Conservatives defend 3 seats, 1 following the death of the previous Councillor and 2 a resignation,
Labour defend 5 seats including both seats in the “double election”, 1 following the death of the previous Councillor and 4 following resignations,

With all seats having declared nominations:
Conservatives have a full slate of 8 candidates, Labour have 8, Liberal Democrats have 7, Greens have 8, SNP have 1 and West Suffolk Independents have 2
- a total of 34 candidates for 8 seats.

Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am on day of the election.

I hate to be so pernickity, but it would be 8 in total, not 9, and only 1 for a county council seat, which was last elected in 2017, the other one is for a unitary last elected in 2016 (Bristol).

Otherwise, many thanks for your work on this.

Should be amended now, thanks for the tip.

[Tony Otim]

Bristol: Lab 34.5, Con 32.7, LD 22.8, Grn 10.0

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Brizzle

Conservative 35.1%

Labour 34.9%

Green 15.1%

Liberal Democrat 14.9%

👽

[carlton43]

Jan 15, 2020 12:43:41 GMT Tony Otim said:

Bristol: Lab 34.5, Con 32.7, LD 22.8, Grn 10.0

That will be interesting Tony to see if there is a separate Bristol Effect and to see if there is a pro-Conservative follow-through from the GE or a near immediate adjustment to the new political environment and a start to a countrebalance against them for having won in so strong a manner?

[Tony Otim]

Jan 15, 2020 15:25:16 GMT carlton43 said:

Jan 15, 2020 12:43:41 GMT Tony Otim said:

Bristol: Lab 34.5, Con 32.7, LD 22.8, Grn 10.0

That will be interesting Tony to see if there is a separate Bristol Effect and to see if there is a pro-Conservative follow-through from the GE or a near immediate adjustment to the new political environment and a start to a countrebalance against them for having won in so strong a manner?

Quite - slightly tough one to predict to start the new year. Will indeed be interesting...

[Davıd Boothroyd]

BRISTOL Brislington East: Lab 43, C 36, L Dem 15, GP 6

[casualobserver]

BRISTOL Brislington East: Con 41, Lab 33, Grn 15, LD 11

[Robert Waller]

BRISTOL Brislington East: Lab 32, C 33, L Dem 25, GP 10

[ricmk]

Not sure I will stick it out for long but dipping my toe back in:

Bristol Lab 34 LD 27 Con 27 Green 12

[bjornhattan]

Bristol - Brislington East: Con 36.2, Lab 34.9, LDm 21.3, Grn 7.6.

[yellowperil]

Bristol,Brislington East: Con 35, Lab 30, LD 26,Green 9

[iainbhx]

Brislington East (Bristol UA): Con 38 Lab 28 LDm 22 Grn 12

[Right Leaning]

Bristol UA - Brislington East: C 37, Lab 33, LD 18, Gn 12

[andrewp]

Bristol, Brislington East Lab 36, Con 34, Lib Dem 23, Green 7

[Deleted]

Bristol

Lab 43 Con 40 LD 10 Grn 7

[greenhert]

Bristol UA, Brislington East: Labour 41, Conservative 39, Liberal Democrats 11,Green 9.

[robbienicoll]

13 entries to open this month, with returns from ricmk and casualobserver and what I think is a maiden appearance from bjornhattan. All on time and correct for the one contest this week.

Brislington East, Bristol: 7 Conservative gain from Labour, with andrewp, David Boothroyd, greenrobinhood, priceofdawn, ricmk and Tony Otim Labour hold.

Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1t6_IsM3Q8GDSpuczZLHBr4foWb5YK_yaU9iOtgo34QA/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!

[bjornhattan]

Jan 16, 2020 18:51:26 GMT robbienicoll said:

13 entries to open this month, with returns from ricmk and casualobserver and what I think is a maiden appearance from bjornhattan. All on time and correct for the one contest this week.

Brislington East, Bristol: 7 Conservative gain from Labour, with andrewp, David Boothroyd, greenrobinhood, priceofdawn, ricmk and Tony Otim Labour hold.

Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1t6_IsM3Q8GDSpuczZLHBr4foWb5YK_yaU9iOtgo34QA/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!

It is, I had wanted to jump in for a while, and felt that with a new year and a new parliament, this was a great opportunity.