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Post by yellowperil on Jan 16, 2020 19:53:46 GMT
13 entries to open this month, with returns from ricmk and casualobserver and what I think is a maiden appearance from bjornhattan. All on time and correct for the one contest this week. Brislington East, Bristol: 7 Conservative gain from Labour, with andrewp, David Boothroyd, greenrobinhood, priceofdawn, ricmk and Tony Otim Labour hold. Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1t6_IsM3Q8GDSpuczZLHBr4foWb5YK_yaU9iOtgo34QA/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all! It is, I had wanted to jump in for a while, and felt that with a new year and a new parliament, this was a great opportunity. So welcome to this maiden predictor. I notice on your first prediction your offer is the closest of all to the average from the 13 of us all, and as you were one of the first to post, it wasn't that you were following the others. Of course there is no guarantee that the actual result will be anything like the average prediction- it hasn't been in the past |
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Post by andrewp on Jan 16, 2020 19:58:39 GMT
It is, I had wanted to jump in for a while, and felt that with a new year and a new parliament, this was a great opportunity. So welcome to this maiden predictor. I notice on your first prediction your offer is the closest of all to the average from the 13 of us all, and as you were one of the first to post, it wasn't that you were following the others. Of course there is no guarantee that the actual result will be anything like the average prediction- it hasn't been in the past It’s a tricky one to start on, and indeed for the rest of us to resume from. We are split down the middle, 2 winners are quite feasible and the Lib Dem vote could be anywhere! |
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Post by robbienicoll on Jan 17, 2020 7:52:20 GMT
Results now updated. Andrewp leads the week just pipping Tony Otim at the post with 9.9 and 10.5 respectively. Ricmk rounds off the podium on 16.9.
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Post by yellowperil on Jan 17, 2020 8:29:29 GMT
13 entries to open this month, with returns from ricmk and casualobserver and what I think is a maiden appearance from bjornhattan. All on time and correct for the one contest this week. Brislington East, Bristol: 7 Conservative gain from Labour, with andrewp, David Boothroyd, greenrobinhood, priceofdawn, ricmk and Tony Otim Labour hold. Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1t6_IsM3Q8GDSpuczZLHBr4foWb5YK_yaU9iOtgo34QA/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all! I hate to be a pain, and it won't change anything very much, but wasn't the LD vote changed from the 480 first reported to 486?It was certainly changed on the Andrew Teale post. |
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Post by robbienicoll on Jan 17, 2020 10:02:54 GMT
13 entries to open this month, with returns from ricmk and casualobserver and what I think is a maiden appearance from bjornhattan. All on time and correct for the one contest this week. Brislington East, Bristol: 7 Conservative gain from Labour, with andrewp, David Boothroyd, greenrobinhood, priceofdawn, ricmk and Tony Otim Labour hold. Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1t6_IsM3Q8GDSpuczZLHBr4foWb5YK_yaU9iOtgo34QA/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all! I hate to be a pain, and it won't change anything very much, but wasn't the LD vote changed from the 480 first reported to 486?It was certainly changed on the Andrew Teale post. Now amended. |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
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Post by Tony Otim on Jan 17, 2020 12:21:46 GMT
Congratulations to andrewp for the week. |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Jan 17, 2020 13:14:16 GMT
Might be worth a quick reminder with the double vacancy next week as there are some new players.
Predictions should be based on predicted average vote share for each party standing together with a prediction of who will win the two seats (especially if predicting a split result, not stating the winners is usually assumed to mean both seats for the top party.)
Also for the Scottish vacancy predictions are for 1st preference vote shares together with a prediction of the eventual winner.
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Tony Otim
Green
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Post by Tony Otim on Jan 21, 2020 21:17:35 GMT
Alperton: Lab 46.5; Con 26.8; LD 18.9; Grn 6.8
Barnhill: Lab 48.1; Con 34.3; LD 10.8; Grn 6.8 (2 Lab holds)
Wembley Central: Lab 57.3; Con 21.0; LD 12.6; Grn 9.1
Mid Galloway and Wigtown West:
Con 57.2; SNP 33.4; Lab 5.2; Grn 4.2 (Con win on 1st preferences).
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jan 22, 2020 12:34:28 GMT
Here are some made up numbers for your delight.
Brent - Alperton:
Labour 41.9%
Liberal Democrat 28.5%
Conservative 23.5% Green 6.1%
Brent - Barnhill:
Labour 51.7% Conservative 30.7% Liberal Democrat 15.3% Green 2.3%
(2 Lab holds)
Brent - Wembley Central:
Labour 41.4% Liberal Democrats 38.7%
Conservative 15.9%
Green 4%
Dumfries and Galloway - Mid Galloway and Wigtown West:
Conservative 51.9%
SNP 35%
Labour 9.8% Green 3.3%
(Conservative win on 1st preferences).
đź‘˝
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Post by bjornhattan on Jan 22, 2020 19:07:08 GMT
I expect to drop down the leaderboard after this - a round much further from the kind of places with which I am familiar.
Alperton: Lab 39, LDm 35, Con 22, Grn 4
Barnhill: Lab 54, Con 27, LDm 14, Grn 5 - Labour to win both seats here.
Wembley Central: Lab 60, Con 19, LDm 15, Grn 6
Edit: Almost forgot Dumfries and Galloway!
Con 49 (winning on transfers), SNP 37, Lab 11, Grn 3
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Post by Robert Waller on Jan 22, 2020 21:47:24 GMT
Alperton: Lab 44; Con 26; LD 26; Grn 4
Barnhill: Lab 50; Con 30; LD 16; Grn 4 (2 Lab holds)
Wembley Central: Lab 52; Con 21; LD 24; Grn 3
Mid Galloway and Wigtown West: Con 55; SNP 37; Lab 5; Grn 3 (Con win)
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Post by andrewp on Jan 22, 2020 22:32:18 GMT
Brent, Alperton Lab 46, Lib Dem 25, Con 24, Green 5
Brent, Barnhill Lab 52, Con 28, Lib Dem 16, Green 4 ( 2 Labour wins)
Brent, Wembley Central Lab 60, Con 18, Lib Dem 18, Green 4
Dumfries and Galloway, Mid Galloway and Wigtown West. Con 50, SNP 40, Lab 6, Green 4 ( Con win)
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greenhert
Green
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Post by greenhert on Jan 22, 2020 22:47:52 GMT
My predictions for this week:
Brent LBC, Alperton: Labour 42, Liberal Democrats 27, Conservative 23, Green 8.
Brent LBC, Barnhill (average of 2 candidates): Labour 50, Liberal Democrats 22, Conservative 19, Green 9.
Brent LBC, Wembley Central: Labour 56, Liberal Democrats 22, Conservative 15, Green 7.
Dumfries and Galloway UA, Mid Galloway& Wigtown West (1st preferences): Conservative 50.5, SNP 37, Green 6.5, Labour 6.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 22, 2020 23:07:23 GMT
Alperton: Lab 40; Con 20; LD 25; Grn 15
Barnhill: Lab 55; Con 25; LD 20; Grn 5 (2 Lab holds)
Wembley Central: Lab 45; Con 25; LD 20; Grn 10
Mid Galloway and Wigtown West: Con 50; SNP 35; Lab 10; Grn 5 (Con win)
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Post by yellowperil on Jan 22, 2020 23:24:21 GMT
Brent, Alperton: Con 22, Lab 40, LD 32, Green 6
Brent, Barnhill: Con 27, Lab 51, LD 17, Green 5 (Lab win x2)
Brent, Wembley C: Con 19. Lab 58, LD 20, Green 3
Dumfries &Galloway, Mid Galloway & Wigtown W: Con 51, Lab 7,Green 5, SNP 37 (Con win)
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jan 23, 2020 0:20:11 GMT
BRENT Alperton: Lab 47, C 29, L Dem 18, GP 6
BRENT Barnhill: Lab 50, C 31, L Dem 13, GP 5. Lab win both seats.
BRENT Wembley Central: Lab 60, C 21, L Dem 15, GP 4
DUMFRIES AND GALLOWAY Mid Galloway and Wigtown West: C 46, SNP 38, Lab 9, SGP 7. C win.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jan 23, 2020 0:20:47 GMT
Dumfries &Galloway, Mid Galloway & Wigtown W: Con 51, Lab 7,Green 5, SNP 37 (SNP win) Are you absolutely sure about that? |
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carlton43
Reform Party
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Post by carlton43 on Jan 23, 2020 1:13:39 GMT
Dumfries &Galloway, Mid Galloway & Wigtown W: Con 51, Lab 7,Green 5, SNP 37 (SNP win) Are you absolutely sure about that? He really doesn't like us David and thinks we ought to lose even from a majoritarian position! |
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Post by yellowperil on Jan 23, 2020 6:50:10 GMT
Dumfries &Galloway, Mid Galloway & Wigtown W: Con 51, Lab 7,Green 5, SNP 37 (SNP win) Are you absolutely sure about that? oops,thanks |
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Post by yellowperil on Jan 23, 2020 6:52:00 GMT
Are you absolutely sure about that? He really doesn't like us David and thinks we ought to lose even from a majoritarian position! true enough- the right is always wrong. |
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