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Post by minionofmidas on Jul 1, 2020 17:18:39 GMT
Protecting Ynys Mon is absolute nonsense. It has two road routes linking it to the mainland and a train service. Stand at the end of Bangor Pier and you can listen in on conversations on the island! (You can certainly hear dogs barking) Wait for the Isle of Ely and Isle of Thanet to make their case. Seriously though, the Scilly Isles really have been left behind in this discussion. They get cut off from the mainland in bad weather in the winter and have a far more deserving case. Albeit the electoral imbalance would be quite something! I see you're Scilly and I raise you Lundy.
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,809
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Jul 1, 2020 19:41:23 GMT
Wales (32 constituencies)
Amman Valley : 11.98% of Brecon and Radnorshire , 13.05% of Carmarthen East and Dinefwr , 37.88% of Gower , 24.63% of Neath , 12.98% of Swansea East , 19.41% of Swansea West
Bethesda and the Conwy Coast : 100% of Aberconwy , 25.70% of Arfon , 31.80% of Clwyd West
Cardiff North East : 56.19% of Cardiff Central , 41.29% of Cardiff North , 18.94% of Cardiff South and Penarth
Cardiff North West : 43.24% of Cardiff North , 70.25% of Cardiff West
Cardiff South : 43.81% of Cardiff Central , 43.65% of Cardiff South and Penarth , 29.75% of Cardiff West
Carmarthenshire East and the Beacons : 88.02% of Brecon and Radnorshire , 14.15% of Carmarthen East and Dinefwr , 3.79% of Ceredigion , 2.70% of Monmouth , 22.65% of Montgomeryshire
Carmarthenshire West and Saundersfoot : 52.43% of Carmarthen East and Dinefwr , 58.81% of Carmarthenshire West and Pembrokeshire South , 10.38% of Llanelli , 2.04% of Preseli, Pembrokeshire
Ceredigion and the Cambrian Mountains : 3.56% of Carmarthen East and Dinefwr , 96.21% of Ceredigion , 14.10% of Montgomeryshire , 17.04% of Preseli, Pembrokeshire
Cwmbran : 6.69% of Blaenau Gwent , 43.70% of Islwyn , 12.10% of Monmouth , 58.50% of Torfaen
Denbighshire and Montgomeryshire East : 50.83% of Clwyd South , 20.75% of Clwyd West , 7.21% of Dwyfor , 54.98% of Montgomeryshire , 2.96% of Vale of Clwyd
Flintshire South : 30.78% of Alyn and Deeside , 68.54% of Delyn , 21.62% of Vale of Clwyd
Llanelli and Ammanford : 16.82% of Carmarthen East and Dinefwr , 13.35% of Gower , 89.62% of Llanelli
Mold and the Marches : 69.22% of Alyn and Deeside , 31.46% of Delyn , 16.13% of Wrexham
Monmouthshire : 85.20% of Monmouth , 20.18% of Newport East , 8.15% of Torfaen
Neath Valley : 42.55% of Aberavon , 46.72% of Neath , 46.36% of Rhondda
Newport East : 79.82% of Newport East , 37.54% of Newport West
Newport West and Severnside : 16.89% of Caerphilly , 15.47% of Cardiff North , 14.64% of Cardiff South and Penarth , 62.46% of Newport West
Pembrokeshire Coast : 41.19% of Carmarthenshire West and Pembrokeshire South , 80.92% of Preseli, Pembrokeshire
Pontypool and Ebbw Vale : 93.31% of Blaenau Gwent , 3.58% of Islwyn ,33.35% of Torfaen
Port Talbot and Ogmore : 48.17% of Aberavon , 17.70% of Bridgend , 69.88% of Ogmore
Rhondda North : 42.29% of Cynon Valley , 14.10% of Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney , 25.36% of Pontypridd , 53.64% of Rhondda
Rhondda South : 22.37% of Caerphilly , 20.80% of Ogmore , 74.64% of Pontypridd
Rhyl and Prestatyn : 47.44% of Clwyd West , 75.42% of Vale of Clwyd
Senghenydd : 60.75% of Caerphilly , 52.71% of Islwyn , 6.08% of Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney
Snowdonia : 74.30% of Arfon , 92.79% of Dwyfor , 8.36% of Montgomeryshire
Swansea East and Neath North : 9.28% of Aberavon , 9.27% of Gower , 28.65% of Neath , 77.32% of Swansea East
Swansea West and the Gower : 39.50% of Gower , 9.70% of Swansea East , 80.59% of Swansea West
The Heads of the Valleys : 57.71% of Cynon Valley , 79.82% of Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney
Vale of Glamorgan East : 22.77% of Cardiff South and Penarth , 76.09% of Vale of Glamorgan
Vale of Glamorgan West and Bridgend : 82.30% of Bridgend , 9.32% of Ogmore , 23.91% of Vale of Glamorgan
Wrexham : 49.17% of Clwyd South , 83.87% of Wrexham
Ynys Môn (protected constituency) : 100% of Ynys Môn
I shall be posting Google Earth maps of the constituencies over the next few weeks with names subject to change (and feedback on names appreciated).
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Post by Wisconsin on Jul 1, 2020 22:50:54 GMT
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jul 1, 2020 23:13:52 GMT
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Post by greatkingrat on Jul 2, 2020 0:15:39 GMT
Wales (32 constituencies)I shall be posting Google Earth maps of the constituencies over the next few weeks with names subject to change (and feedback on names appreciated). If only someone could create a dedicated website that allowed you to create constituency maps ...
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Post by bjornhattan on Jul 2, 2020 0:20:18 GMT
Based on the above arguments re Ynys Mon, if the IOW ever got a road bridge to the mainland it would reduce their claim to be treated separately? Yes. But given the island's frequent ferry links I think its current protected status is unjustified.Other than W Isles and O&S I can't see any case for special status. The problem is deciding with which part of the mainland the Isle of Wight should be paired. Neither central Portsmouth nor central Southampton have much in common with Ryde or Cowes, forcing an incredibly unnatural pairing. The only link which might work is a Yarmouth-Lymington one, and even that isn't perfect. The west Wight portion needs to stretch all the way to Newport or Ventnor to keep the other Isle of Wight seat under quota, and the mainland portion will need to stretch well into the New Forest. If the Isle of Wight's electorate was closer to a whole number of quotas, it might not be so bad (including just Lymington in a mostly Vectisian seat, or just Yarmouth in a New Forest seat would probably be less offensive), but with it having 1.5 constituencies' worth of voters, you'll end up with an awful solution no matter what.
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 13,672
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Post by J.G.Harston on Jul 2, 2020 2:20:49 GMT
Most of the issues covered would be addressed if polling district mapping was prioritised for metropolitan authorities - which are the area where the big ward issue is an issue. And "no access to sub-ward level detail"? Go to the library and pick up the electoral register - it goes down to house-by-house level! Detail I have compiled and used in previous reviews.
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Adrian
Co-operative Party
Posts: 1,726
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Post by Adrian on Jul 2, 2020 5:25:56 GMT
Most of the issues covered would be addressed if polling district mapping was prioritised for metropolitan authorities - which are the area where the big ward issue is an issue. And "no access to sub-ward level detail"? Go to the library and pick up the electoral register - it goes down to house-by-house level! Detail I have compiled and used in previous reviews. Indeed. What is quite bizarre is how he makes it sound such a problem to decide how to split wards, whilst at the same time admitting that polling district data was made available - and used - for the 2018 review.
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Post by evergreenadam on Jul 2, 2020 13:58:18 GMT
Based on the above arguments re Ynys Mon, if the IOW ever got a road bridge to the mainland it would reduce their claim to be treated separately? Yes. But given the island's frequent ferry links I think its current protected status is unjustified. Other than W Isles and O&S I can't see any case for special status. The Isle of Wight has been badly underrepresented in Parliament for decades due to the excessive size of its single constituency electorate so I don’t begrudge them two MPs. Perhaps though they could trial some form of PR with a multi member constituency.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 2, 2020 14:14:21 GMT
They could have had two MPs from the 1990s if they had wanted. But they preferred to be a single, very large constituency with a single MP.
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Post by Wisconsin on Jul 2, 2020 16:21:12 GMT
Introduce electronic voting into the chamber, and give the IOW MP 1.6 votes, and fractional votes for Ynys Mon, the Scottish Islands, and Hazel Grove.
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 13,672
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Post by J.G.Harston on Jul 2, 2020 16:31:33 GMT
Introduce electronic voting into the chamber, and give the IOW MP 1.6 votes, and fractional votes for Ynys Mon, the Scottish Islands, and Hazel Grove. Do it for all MPs and make their vote fraction be the turnout for their seat as a fraction of the national seat quota.
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Post by greatkingrat on Jul 2, 2020 16:49:31 GMT
Introduce electronic voting into the chamber, and give the IOW MP 1.6 votes, and fractional votes for Ynys Mon, the Scottish Islands, and Hazel Grove. Do it for all MPs and make their vote fraction be the turnout for their seat as a fraction of the national seat quota. Although that would mean that if you live in a constituency where your preferred party has no chance of winning, you would be better off staying at home.
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Post by Wisconsin on Jul 2, 2020 17:08:55 GMT
Implement a form of proportional representation where everyone who gets a vote in a constituency gets a fractional vote in the House of Commons.
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Post by finsobruce on Jul 2, 2020 17:46:31 GMT
Introduce electronic voting into the chamber, and give the IOW MP 1.6 votes, and fractional votes for Ynys Mon, the Scottish Islands, and Hazel Grove. Hazel Grove? has there been a major shift of the tectonic plates that I missed?
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 3, 2020 16:54:13 GMT
Protecting Ynys Mon is absolute nonsense. It's worse than that. Yes, it's probably good news for Virginia Crosbie, but even without adding Bangor, the island is still a marginal. Meanwhile the result of this is likely to force abolishing Montgomeryshire, the safest Conservative seat in Wales. Not a very clever gerrymander at all really. This is OK isn't it?
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 3, 2020 17:26:02 GMT
And this is a bit back of a fag packet, but I found it much easier to get the numbers to fit in South Wales now than I have on any previous attempts (without Anglesey protected)
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ian48
Non-Aligned
Posts: 55
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Post by ian48 on Jul 4, 2020 6:21:20 GMT
It's worse than that. Yes, it's probably good news for Virginia Crosbie, but even without adding Bangor, the island is still a marginal. Meanwhile the result of this is likely to force abolishing Montgomeryshire, the safest Conservative seat in Wales. Not a very clever gerrymander at all really. This is OK isn't it? I think the Tories are going to rue the day they decided to make this gesture to Anglesey. Not sure how many North Walian Conservatives had a say but it’s obvious to me that putting Bangor in with Llandudno and Colwyn Bay turns what had been a safeish seat in the planned North Wales Coast into a marginal with a big Labour vote. While Bangor used to be in Conwy when it was Conservative, the city has changed a great deal since then. It’s generally poorer and a lot more studenty these days and far less culturally conservative (though the latter being generally Welsh speaking would have voted for Roger Roberts and the Liberals back in the day and there was quite a split vote). The electorate is a lot more uniformly Labour there these days. Corbyn would have gone down well in Bangor. So the Tories will effectively have saved a marginal that they may not hold anyway at the expense of making a very holdable seat into one that they may well lose quite easily. They should be careful what they wish for. Can imagine someone latched onto this idea and thought ‘brilliant’, but doesn’t know the area at all. There’s no way in my mind Anglesey should be protected. You could practically spit onto the island from the mainland at its narrowest point (well, I exaggerate but you get the idea).
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 4, 2020 6:49:47 GMT
I think the Tories are going to rue the day they decided to make this gesture to Anglesey. Not sure how many North Walian Conservatives had a say but it’s obvious to me that putting Bangor in with Llandudno and Colwyn Bay turns what had been a safeish seat in the planned North Wales Coast into a marginal with a big Labour vote. While Bangor used to be in Conwy when it was Conservative, the city has changed a great deal since then. It’s generally poorer and a lot more studenty these days and far less culturally conservative (though the latter being generally Welsh speaking would have voted for Roger Roberts and the Liberals back in the day and there was quite a split vote). The electorate is a lot more uniformly Labour there these days. Corbyn would have gone down well in Bangor. So the Tories will effectively have saved a marginal that they may not hold anyway at the expense of making a very holdable seat into one that they may well lose quite easily. They should be careful what they wish for. Can imagine someone latched onto this idea and thought ‘brilliant’, but doesn’t know the area at all. There’s no way in my mind Anglesey should be protected. You could practically spit onto the island from the mainland at its narrowest point (well, I exaggerate but you get the idea). Sure I see the problem there. Bangor is going to be a problem wherever it is. There is a way to avoid it of course (various ways) but there's no reason to suppose the Welsh Boundary Commission will oblige.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jul 4, 2020 7:52:29 GMT
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