Byelections 21st February

[ColinJ]

West Harrow update:

Two minor 'celebreties', Sally Bercow and Keith Vaz MP, have been out campaigning for the Labour candidate.

I have uploaded some election leaflets from all candidates (except the Green) on my web site. Links can be found towards the bottom of the following page: www.harrow-elections.co.uk/7.html

I hope they are of interest.

[arnieetc]

Apparently Labour canvassers are out in Castleford pushing a 'if you vote UKIP, you'll let the Tories in' line. Despite UKIP getting twice as many votes as the Tories there in 2012.

[greatkingrat]

LDs gain Broomfield - no figures yet

[Pete Whitehead]

ridiculous

[greatkingrat]

LD 543 (38.2%)
Con 423 (29.7%)
UKIP 280 (19.7%)
Lab 129 (9.1%)
Grn 47 (3.3%)

[East Anglian Lefty]

Feb 19, 2013 23:47:18 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

ridiculous

Not entirely surprising - apparently the Lib Dem candidate had been a councillor for the area between 1995 and 2003.

[erlend]

Feb 20, 2013 0:02:04 GMT East Anglian Lefty said:

Feb 19, 2013 23:47:18 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

ridiculous

Not entirely surprising - apparently the Lib Dem candidate had been a councillor for the area between 1995 and 2003.

I have a nagging memory that he is an ex PPC for one of the Chelmsfords.

[East Anglian Lefty]

Looks like it was Maldon and East Chelmsford, 1997. I hadn't realised that, and I disregarded the councillor thing as a) it was a decade ago and b) I didn't think it was the most substantive bit of information in this. Must have been a fairly clean campaign.

[markgoodair]

Feb 19, 2013 19:49:58 GMT arnieetc said:

Apparently Labour canvassers are out in Castleford pushing a 'if you vote UKIP, you'll let the Tories in' line. Despite UKIP getting twice as many votes as the Tories there in 2012.

Let's get real shall we. If Labour ever loses Cas they may as pack up and go home.

[Khunanup]

Fascinating stuff about the alcohol addiction. Wish him all the best in his third spell on the council!

[middleenglander]

Chelmsford, Broomfield & The Walthams

Difficult to assess against 2011 not only because of the influence of the Independent but the presumably sitting Lib Dem who won a by-election in 2007 polled so much better than fellow candidates. Nevertheless for a bit of fun, comparison with that 2007 by-election:

Party	2013 vote	2013 share	since 2007 b/e
Lib Dems	543	38.2%	-18.1%
Conservatives	423	29.7%	-5.2%
UKIP	280	19.7%	+17.0%
Labour	129	9.1%	+5.5%
Greens	47	3.3%	+0.8%
Total vote	1,422		-704

So total vote only 2/3rds what it was at the previous by-election
Labour share up by the same %age Conservatives down
UKIP share up by the same %age share Lib Dems down.

A funny old world really.

[Pete Whitehead]

Feb 20, 2013 1:03:46 GMT middleenglander said:

Chelmsford, Broomfield & The Walthams

Difficult to assess against 2011 not only because of the influence of the Independent but the presumably sitting Lib Dem who won a by-election in 2007 polled so much better than fellow candidates.

In my Thrasher & Rallings for 2011, the LD candidate with a * against their name came second of the LD candidates some way behind the candidate who came first which I thought strange. Perhaps it was an error there - even so the defeat was fairly comprehensive hence why I thought the last by-election was a flash in the pan and would not be repeated. I was unaware the LD candidate was a previous councillor for the ward which should remind me to look further back. I noted that he lived well outside the ward in the middle of Chelmsford so assumed he would have no resonance locally

[andrewteale]

Feb 20, 2013 8:42:43 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Feb 20, 2013 1:03:46 GMT middleenglander said:

Chelmsford, Broomfield & The Walthams

Difficult to assess against 2011 not only because of the influence of the Independent but the presumably sitting Lib Dem who won a by-election in 2007 polled so much better than fellow candidates.

In my Thrasher & Rallings for 2011, the LD candidate with a * against their name came second of the LD candidates some way behind the candidate who came first which I thought strange. Perhaps it was an error there - even so the defeat was fairly comprehensive hence why I thought the last by-election was a flash in the pan and would not be repeated. I was unaware the LD candidate was a previous councillor for the ward which should remind me to look further back. I noted that he lived well outside the ward in the middle of Chelmsford so assumed he would have no resonance locally

It's an R&T error. Malcolm Taylor won the September 2007 by-election.

EDIT: Lorraine Cobbold - the second Lib Dem candidate in 2011 - had actually been a sitting councillor from 2007 but in Waterhouse Farm ward.

[Pete Whitehead]

I suspected an error but had no way to check. The Edkins by-elections site doesn't give names of candidates and the otherwise excellent LEAP site doesn't use any symbols to denote sitting councillors. I suppose the result may have been on the Chelmsford council site still but I didn't bother to check that - I don't think this detail would have affected my prediction overmuch anyway

[Tony Otim]

I thought the LD candidate would give them a boost, but not that much. Similarly that the Labour vote would be dampened by having an 18yo girl as the candidate. I overestimated the Tory strength on the basis of the independant at the last election being a former Tory councillor.

[Tony Otim]

When was the last time a local by-election featured 3 former PPC for the relevant constituency?

[AdminSTB]

English Elections preview for tomorrow's by-elections, courtesy of Andrew Teale:
blog.englishelections.org.uk/2013/02/by-elections-preview-21-february-2013.html

(Getting things done later and later is becoming an unfortunate habit of mine so far this year. If you think that's bad, I have a 1500 word essay due tomorrow that I haven't even read the material for yet...)

[ColinJ]

I have no definite information one way or the other, but West Harrow may count on Friday. Certainly the last two Harrow Council by-elections were Friday counts.

[arnieetc]

Big Lab win in Castleford. Think it's about 76%, UKIP 17.1%, Con 4.1%, LD 1.6%

[Andrew_S]

Why is this the first I've heard of the EnglishElections blog? It hasn't been very well advertised on this forum...