By-elections - 14th February 2013

[greatkingrat]

SOUTH LANARKSHIRE - Rutherglen South (SNP died)

2012 - Lab 1244/851, LD 1181, SNP 1141, Con 232, SUP 130
2007 - Lab 1534/846, LD 1077/506, SNP 1045, Con 529, Ind 285, Grn 150, SUP 135, SSP 106

David BAILLIE (Scottish Liberal Democrats)
Margaret FERRIER (Scottish National Party (SNP))
Aric GILINSKY (Scottish Conservative and Unionist)
Gerald KILLEN (Scottish Labour Party)
Donald MACKAY (UK Independence Party)
Susan MARTIN (Scottish Green Party)
Craig SMITH (Independent)

SOUTH STAFFORDSHIRE - Perton East (Conservative died)

2011 - Con 432, Ind 402
2007 - Con 367, Ind 293, LD 33
2003 - Con 260, Ind 237

Anthony BOURKE (Independent)
Nigel CAINE (The Conservative Party Candidate)

TELFORD AND WREKIN - Dawley Magna (Labour died)

2011 - Lab 1315/1243/961, Con 917, TWPA 877/785/505
2007 - TWPA 1220/1033/961, Con 648/535/464, Lab 574/526/483
2003 - Lab 1522/1488/1268, Con 878/844, SocAll 359/305

Angela JORDAN (Independent)
Ryan LAING (UK Independence Party (UKIP))
Jane PINTER (The Labour Party Candidate)
Alan SCOTT (The Conservative Party Candidate)

WEST LINDSEY - Gainsborough East (Liberal Democrat died)

2011 - LD 591/583/358, Lab 422, Con 322/227/196
2010 - LD 1019, Lab 606, Con 597, UKIP 224
2008 - LD 635, Con 255, UKIP 140
2007 - LD 716, Con 303
2006 - LD 760, Con 375

Mark BINNS (Liberal Democrats)
Richard BUTROID (The Conservative Party Candidate)
Mick DEVINE (The Labour Party Candidate)
Howard THOMPSON (UK Independence Party)

[David Ashforth]

Ward map

SOUTH LANARKSHIRE - Rutherglen South

SOUTH STAFFORDSHIRE - Perton East

TELFORD & WREKIN - Dawley Magna

WEST LINDSEY - Gainsborough East

[piperdave]

Since this is the only by-election for lovers, I thought I'd repost this:

While not comprised exactly of the following 1999-2007 wards, it does include the vast majority of them, plus a small part of a neighbouring one: Stonelaw, Fernhill and Spittal/Blairbeth.

In 1999, the combined vote across the wards were as below (note: there were Conservative candidates in only two of the wards but vote share would have been similar). The Lib Dems would have won the ward over Labour on 41% of the vote:

Party Vote %
Lib Dem 2672 41.43%
Labour 2402 37.25%
SNP 1003 15.55%
Cons 372 5.77%


In 2003, a slight change in results with the SNP losing votes to the SSP, and the Lib Dems losing enough votes elsewhere to let Labour overtake and win. Again, the Conservatives only fought 2 of the wards, as did the SSP and Scottish Unionist Party:

Party Vote % Change
Labour 1972 39.20% 1.95%
Lib Dem 1848 36.73% -4.70%
SNP 509 10.12% -5.44%
Cons 362 7.20% 1.43%
SSP 210 4.17% 4.17%
Unionist 130 2.58% 2.58%


The Lib Dems fell back in 2007 with the creation of the multi-member ward.Labour led them 38% to 25% and the SNP rising again to 1999 levels at 17%. 2012 saw Labour reach new heights at 44%, the SNP swallowing up votes from independents and small parties to poll 24% and the Lib Dems fractionally ahead on 25%.

On a side note, the existing Labour councillor here is Brian McKenna. He was councillor for the old Burgh ward between 1999 and 2007 but this is not part of Rutherglen South so no long history of a personal vote in the area. It should be noted that he was lower down the ballot paper than his fellow Labour candidate, whose vote increased by significantly more than Brian's running mate in 2007, but Brian was still elected over the quota on the first count.

I think this could be a really interesting fight. If Labour don't win on first preferences, who of the Lib Dem or SNP candidates are excluded first may change the outcome. We might even know what the alternative outcome might have been because this may be the first by-election where the full preference profiles (which shows how many voters ranked the candidates in the same combination) are released. South Lanarkshire has counted all of its by-elections electronically since 2007 and legislation to allow the profiles to be released has recently come into force.

[Tony Otim]

Jan 16, 2013 23:25:13 GMT piperdave said:

I think this could be a really interesting fight. If Labour don't win on first preferences, who of the Lib Dem or SNP candidates are excluded first may change the outcome. We might even know what the alternative outcome might have been because this may be the first by-election where the full preference profiles (which shows how many voters ranked the candidates in the same combination) are released. South Lanarkshire has counted all of its by-elections electronically since 2007 and legislation to allow the profiles to be released has recently come into force.

Hmmm, probably won't be that interesting. I think the main point of interest will be to see how much the LD vote, which held up very well last year, was a LD vote and how much was a vote for Robert Brown. I expect that they might fall back a little and finish behind the SNP this time. As for the rest - assuming Labour get over 40% (likely) and the 2nd place party are under 30% (very likely) then it won't really matter what order the rest finish in. For Labour to be caught would require the vast majority of votes to transfer and to break overwhelmingly against Labour (a ratio of 4 or 5 to 1 against them) and we know from a lot of these elections now that neither occurrence is really very likely at all. This will be a Labour gain. It's really all about who comes second.

[marksenior]

Pretty much agree with what tonyotim says about the transfers , Labour should win this unless they have gone backwards since last year .
The Lib Dem candidate David Baillie is however a strong candidate and a councillor for 9 years prior to last year albeit in Cambuslang West . SNP will also have lost the personal vote of their deceased councillor and therefore I think the Lib Dems can hold 2nd place . .

[AdminSTB]

I lived in Rutherglen in 2010/11, though in the other ward - Rutherglen Central and North (which incidentally is a strange name given that the Main Street and 'Central' area is in the very northernmost part of the town, a stone's throw from the border with Glasgow City Council).

I've never met the SNP candidate, and she seems to be completely new. I expect the SNP vote to hold about steady, it's not an area of great momentum for us.

The Lib Dem is a former Cllr for Cambuslang West as pointed out above, but has nothing of Robert Brown's popularity or local profile. Lib Dem vote will probably be down, but I'd expect it to remain above 10% of first prefs as there is a sizeable middle class professional vote to be had in the Burnside area.

The Conservative candidate is notable as the previous leader of Conservative Future Scotland, and he contested the Hilton/Stockethill ward in Aberdeen last May. He seems reasonably keen on the contest, so Tory vote may be up marginally.

A lot of the candidates stood for election last May actually: The Labour candidate stood unsuccessfully in this ward, the UKIP candidate contested Larkhall ward, and indy Craig Smith contested Hamilton South for the Christian Party. The Greens' Susan Martin contested Rutherglen Central and North in 2007, but didn't stand anywhere in 2012. As such, the SNP candidate seems to be the only one with no previous electoral experience.

Another interesting thing to note is that large swathes of council housing in the Fernhill area are being emptied and demolished at present, and the population there has likely notably declined even since last May. This could hit Labour a little, although percentage turnout could actually rise if the electoral canvass has been updated to reflect the clearances considering that Fernhill probably has the worst turnout in the ward.

However, I believe Labour will win on first preferences alone here. They were on 43.8% in May 2012, so it's not that far of a stretch for them, especially when the Lib Dem vote will be pretty soft compared to then. If they don't win on first preferences alone, they won't be far off and would probably get there with just the transfers from the elimination of the minor party candidates.

[middleenglander]

Candidates for Telford, Dawley Magna are Conservative, Labour, UKIP and Independent. The Conservative is the only candidate to have contested to seat in May 2011.

[listener]

Here is some background to the by-election in the Dawley ward of Great Dawley Parish Council in the unitary Borough of Telford and Wrekin.

Great Dawley Parish Council comprises 14 members, elected from two wards as follows – Dawley (7) and Malinslee (7).

The Dawley parish ward is combined with the Aqueduct ward of Dawley Hamlets parish to form the borough ward of Dawley Magna.

The council strengths were as follows:

Elections on 3 May 2007: Telford and Wrekin Peoples Association 5, Lab 5, Lib Dem 3, Independent 1

Elections on 5 May 2011: Lab 12, Vacant 2
The two vacancies in Dawley ward were filled by co-option.
One of the Lab candidates elected in Malinslee ward in 2011 had been elected as a Lib Dem in 2007.

2 February 2013: Lab 10, Co-opted 3, Vacant 1

The current chair and vice-chair of the parish council are Labour.

The result in Dawley on 3 May 2007 was:
Telford and Wrekin Peoples Association 1020/875/839/831/768, Independent 606, Lab 405/382/361/349/347
Elected: Telford and Wrekin Peoples Association 5, Independent 1, Lab 1

The result in Dawley on 5 May 2011 was:
Lab 5 unopposed – with two vacancies

On 30 June 2011, the Council co-opted Mohammed Choudhary and June Pinter to fill the two vacancies in Dawley ward.

On 24 November 2011, Christopher Turley (Lab) was co-opted as a member for Malinslee, following the resignation of Nicola Holmes (Lab).

The by-election on 14 February is caused by the death of Brian Duce (Lab), who was the Chair of the Parish Council and also represented Dawley Magna ward on Telford and Wrekin Borough Council.

The two candidates are Lab and UKIP. The UKIP candidate is also standing in the Borough Council by-election.

The result in the Dawley Magna ward of Telford and Wrekin Borough Council on 3 May 2007 was
Telford and Wrekin Peoples Association 1220/1061/933, Con 648/535/464, Lab 574/526/483
Elected: Telford and Wrekin Peoples Association 3

The result in the Dawley Magna ward of Telford and Wrekin Borough Council on 5 May 2011 was
Lab 1315/1243/961, Con 917, Telford and Wrekin Peoples Association 877/785/505
Elected: Lab 3 - Lab gained 3 from Telford and Wrekin Peoples Association

[independentukip]

An additional piece of information about the Parish Council election is that co-opted Councillor Choudhary has recently defected from TWPA to UKIP.

www.shropshirelive.com/2013/01/28/telford-councillor-defects-to-ukip/

[Rural Radical]

I take it TWPA have been wound up as a party now?

[andrewteale]

The official English Elections preview of the week's three English by-elections is up:

blog.englishelections.org.uk/2013/02/by-elections-preview-14-february-2013.html

Kris is down to do the Scottish one.

[AdminSTB]

And our Scottish preview:

blog.scottishelections.org.uk/2013/02/by-election-preview-14-february-2013.html

[Sibboleth]

TAWPA was a really deeply weird thing.

[greatkingrat]

Based on the 2012 preference information recently published, the votes in South Lanarkshire could be transferred as follows

If final two is Lab/LD
Con - LD (56.5%), none (33.6%), Lab (9.9%)
SNP - none (40.5%), Lab (33.6%), LD (25.9%)

If final two is Lab/SNP
Con - none (58.2%), Lab (26.7%), SNP (15.1%)
LD - none (38.0%), Lab (36.7%), SNP (25.3%)

[Tony Otim]

Feb 14, 2013 11:04:05 GMT greatkingrat said:

Based on the 2012 preference information recently published, the votes in South Lanarkshire could be transferred as follows

If final two is Lab/LD
Con - LD (56.5%), none (33.6%), Lab (9.9%)
SNP - none (40.5%), Lab (33.6%), LD (25.9%)

If final two is Lab/SNP
Con - none (58.2%), Lab (26.7%), SNP (15.1%)
LD - none (38.0%), Lab (36.7%), SNP (25.3%)

Which rather refutes Kris' assertion that the trasfers are likely to break against Labour.

[middleenglander]

Perton East turnout statistics:

67% turnout for postal votes and 21% for voting at the polling station. Overall turnout 27%, implying postal votes are circa 13% of electorate.

Result Bourke Independent 314 - 65.1%, Caine (Conservative) 168 - 34.9%. Independent gain from Conservative.

[andrea]

Bourke (IND) 314; Caine (CON) 168

Ind gain in Staffs

[brianjrvs]

Lib Dems hold Gainsborough East


LIB DEM 169
LAB 149
UKIP 143
CON 129

[AdminSTB]

That's a very close four-way split. Approaching Inverness 1992 there...

[andrea]

Dawley Magna has been won by Labour with 957 votes in a 24.5% turnout according to the council twitter feed.