Bulgarian elections

[Georg Ebner]

Just few tenThousand votes are counted so far, but GERB seems to remain dominant in most cities with either overAll majorities or coming nearly everywhere into the runOff (often being far ahead):

10 over-all majority:

- 7 GERB&SDS overall majority (6x GERB, 1x SDS)
- 1 Localist&GERB
- 1 DPS
- 1 PD

17 Run-offs:

- 14 GERB&SDS
- 08 PP&DB
- 06 Ind.
- 05 BSP
- 01 DPS

[Georg Ebner]

Mayoral races in districtCapitals:

[Georg Ebner]

In Sofia it was surprisingly narrow in the end (1-2%), but PP&DB's IT-specialist (with parents, who had tortured for the Secret Service) prevailed ahead of the BSP-woMan (who will certainly endanger Mrs.Ninova now...). Borisov made amusingly a U-turn (first indirectly proBSP, then directly proPP&DB).
PP&DB won - like BSP - 4 provincial capitals, but GERB defended 13/27, so all can be in some way satisfied - and not.

[Georg Ebner]

As expected, PP&DB swept the city of Sofia (apart from few fringeAreas):

[matureleft]

Snap election called to coincide with the European Parliamentary Elections on 9 June. The rotational agreement between the two largest parties had collapsed.

Another election in which the Ukraine conflict will feature pretty strongly.

[Georg Ebner]

Poll for the 6th election in 40 months:

[Georg Ebner]

With these numbers GERB&DPS would once again fall short of a majority - but perhaps close enough to get some deFectors?

[Georg Ebner]

Seat-proJections:

MarketResearch have 121/240 for GERB-SDS&DPS, the others 113-115. ITN might join them?

[Andrew_S]

"Do you know the name of the Bulgarian prime minister? I am fairly sure you do not. But don’t feel uncomfortable about it — most Bulgarians don’t know the name of their premier either. And how could they? In just three years, Bulgaria has gone through six parliamentary elections. Four times, the newly elected parliament failed to form a government. In the two instances when a government was formed, it survived for less than a year and displayed all the failings of an arranged marriage. On October 27, Bulgarians will vote again. There is a 50/50 chance they’ll elect a government."

www.ft.com/content/0ae689a8-cce1-42b3-9ff7-a0ae0bbb5dc4

[Georg Ebner]

Sept 13, 2024 17:53:32 GMT Andrew_S said:

"Do you know the name of the Bulgarian prime minister? I am fairly sure you do not. But don’t feel uncomfortable about it — most Bulgarians don’t know the name of their premier either. And how could they? In just three years, Bulgaria has gone through six parliamentary elections. Four times, the newly elected parliament failed to form a government. In the two instances when a government was formed, it survived for less than a year and displayed all the failings of an arranged marriage. On October 27, Bulgarians will vote again. There is a 50/50 chance they’ll elect a government."

www.ft.com/content/0ae689a8-cce1-42b3-9ff7-a0ae0bbb5dc4

Right. Albeit in June GERB+DPS received 115/240 and might have succeeded with parts of newComer Velichie (13 MPs) - but then emerged inside DPS a civilWar...

[Foggy]

Sept 13, 2024 17:53:32 GMT Andrew_S said:

"Do you know the name of the Bulgarian prime minister? I am fairly sure you do not. 

The only time I could've given a name as an answer to that question is when the post was (unwisely) occupied by Simeon Saksecoburggotski. 

[Georg Ebner]

Sept 13, 2024 23:06:00 GMT Foggy said:

Sept 13, 2024 17:53:32 GMT Andrew_S said:

"Do you know the name of the Bulgarian prime minister? I am fairly sure you do not. 

The only time I could've given a name as an answer to that question is when the post was (unwisely) occupied by Simeon Saksecoburggotski. 

Though knowing the name of the inCumbent would anyWay be more a sign of inErudition, i.e. of not knowing, that he is just a - for politics (and probably also for policies) unimportant - placeHolder.

[markgoodair]

Sept 13, 2024 23:06:00 GMT Foggy said:

Sept 13, 2024 17:53:32 GMT Andrew_S said:

"Do you know the name of the Bulgarian prime minister? I am fairly sure you do not. 

The only time I could've given a name as an answer to that question is when the post was (unwisely) occupied by Simeon Saksecoburggotski. 

The last surviving World War Two head of. state still alive .

[doktorb🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️]

A thread on Xitter about the upcoming Bulgarian elections 

[Georg Ebner]

Today took the - i think - 7th election in a row place. (1 of 10 elections this weekEnd...)
The big parties might gain a little bit, but otherWise no end of the series is to be expected.
The only interEst of the public has been the feud within DPS.

[Georg Ebner]

ExitPolls:

The one of AlphaResearch with the seats:

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Gerb-sds  69 (+2)
Pp-db 64 (-9)
Revival 37 (+10)
DPS 36 (=)
BPSzB 23 (-2)
ITN 11 (+11)
BV 0 (-12)

[Georg Ebner]

I have forgotten to post this here:

- %, measured at all eligibe votes:

- %-deViations from national average:


- %, measured at only valid votes:

- %-deViations from national average:

[Georg Ebner]

Since 2005:
1st place in electoral units;


%-deViations from nat. average, measured at all eligible votes, district minus Bulgaria:









%-deViations from nat. average, measured at all eligible votes, district divided by Bulgaria:









%-deViations from nat. average, measured at only valid votes, district minus Bulgaria:









%-deViations from nat. average, measured at only valid votes, district divided by Bulgaria:

[Georg Ebner]

Ad this one:

I coloured both - DPS & APS - with yellow. Each came first in 3 entities.