Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 27, 2019 10:03:29 GMT
Local elections are held today.
2015 GERB performed very well, so they should lose some ground. Possible seems, that "blue" Sofija - perhaps also Plovdiv - will be lost for the first time since 1990. (What might mean, that Bulgaria is moving from the camp of Romania, Slovakia, Czechia [right-liberal cities] into that of western normality a la Croatia, Hungary, Poland, Russia [left-liberal cities].)
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 27, 2019 22:58:08 GMT
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,796
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Post by Georg Ebner on Nov 3, 2019 18:10:18 GMT
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,796
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jul 11, 2021 1:20:04 GMT
SnapElection not only in Moldova, but also in Bulgaria.
GERB and ITN are polled NeckToNeck, the nationalists are surprisingly low. ITN came out as "liberals", so a coalitiin with the "old right" (= anticommunistic RightLiberals) and the LeftLiberals is likely, perhaps added by DPS.
Despite all the revelations of GERB-corruption by the present CareTaker-cabinet i am personally not sure they will really get a majority, after all the market for this kind of parties is limited.
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rcronald
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Post by rcronald on Jul 11, 2021 2:55:57 GMT
What do you mean that they 'came out as liberals'?
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Post by timrollpickering on Jul 11, 2021 16:39:44 GMT
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jul 11, 2021 16:56:10 GMT
What do you mean that they 'came out as liberals'? Last time ITN refused to take part in debates outside the private channel of their PartyLeader; thus their positions were widely unknown at the last election. But now this has changed partly. |
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rcronald
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Post by rcronald on Jul 11, 2021 17:01:12 GMT
What do you mean that they 'came out as liberals'? Last time ITN refused to take part in debates outside the private channel of their PartyLeader; thus their positions were widely unknown at the last election. But now this has changed partly. So during the debates it turned out they are a centre-right party? |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jul 11, 2021 17:26:46 GMT
Last time ITN refused to take part in debates outside the private channel of their PartyLeader; thus their positions were widely unknown at the last election. But now this has changed partly. So during the debates it turned out they are a centre-right party? Well, their leader Trifonov gave LeMonde an InterView ("because Bulgarian media cannot be trusted") and mentioned Reagan, Thatcher (and Macron...) as his idols. |
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rcronald
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Post by rcronald on Jul 11, 2021 17:30:27 GMT
So during the debates it turned out they are a centre-right party? Well, their leader Trifonov gave LeMonde an InterView ("because Bulgarian media cannot be trusted") and mentioned Reagan, Thatcher (and Macron...) as his idols. So basically an anti-Communist populist? (which would idicate a likely prefrence towards the anti-Communist rght?) |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jul 11, 2021 17:30:49 GMT
ExitPoll:
22.1% Gerb
21.5% ITN
15.1% BSP (Soc.)
13.7% DB (RightLib.)
12.0% DPS (Turks)
04.8% LeftLiberals
below 4%-treshold Nationalists
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jul 11, 2021 17:33:40 GMT
Well, their leader Trifonov gave LeMonde an InterView ("because Bulgarian media cannot be trusted") and mentioned Reagan, Thatcher (and Macron...) as his idols. So basically an anti-Communist populist? (which would idicate a likely prefrence towards the anti-Communist rght?) In the 1990ies he was. Presently apparently rather an antiGERB one. Likliest coalition seem to be with rightlib. ("Old Right") Dem.B. & LeftLiberals, perhaps including "liberal" (=proMinorities) DPS and even the exCommunists. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jul 11, 2021 17:36:47 GMT
ExitPoll: 22.1% Gerb 21.5% ITN 15.1% BSP (Soc.) 13.7% DB (RightLib.) 12.0% DPS (Turks) 04.8% LeftLiberals below 4%-treshold Nationalists by Gallup. Another one by AlphaResearch: 23.5% Gerb 22.3% ITN 14.1% BSP 11.7% DPS 05.5% LeftLib. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jul 11, 2021 17:39:48 GMT
AlphaResearch polled the nationalists as perfectly split:
3.3% Renaissance
3.2% Bulg.Patriots
2.2% Bulg.Summer
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jul 12, 2021 2:57:40 GMT
1 ExitPoll was conducted by AlphaResearch, these were their numbers at 19.00 (but they released their SubSamples during the night, so some AdJusting to the results coming in might have taken place):  Streams since the April-election:  Age: - 18-30:  - 31-60:  - 61-..:  Formal education: - high:  - middle.  - low:  Sexes: -ladies:  -gentlemen:  DecisionMaking (red = more than 1 month ago, blue = during campaign, grey = final days)::  |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jul 12, 2021 11:06:28 GMT
Once again SubSamples from the ExitPoll of AlphaResearch, this time the kind of location. Parishes:  Big towns:  Small towns:  Sophia:  |
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Post by markgoodair on Jul 12, 2021 15:56:00 GMT
Votes % Seats +/–
There Is Such A People 622.591 23,91 64 +13
GERB–SDS 616.076 23,66 63 −12
BSP for Bulgaria 354.937 13,63 37 −6
Democratic Bulgaria 326.732 12,55 34 +7
Movement for Rights and Freedoms 275.760 10,59 27 −3
Stand Up! Mafia, Get Out! 131.371 5,04 14 0
Bulgarian Patriots 83.718 3,21 0 New
Independents 142 0 0
None of the above 33.974 –
Total 100,00 240 0
Valid votes 3,247,470
Invalid/blank votes
Total votes 3,333,997
Registered voters/turnout 6,578,716 50,68
Source: CIK
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Post by John Chanin on Jul 12, 2021 16:25:58 GMT
Votes % Seats +/– There Is Such A People 622.591 23,91 64 +13 GERB–SDS 616.076 23,66 63 −12 BSP for Bulgaria 354.937 13,63 37 −6 Democratic Bulgaria 326.732 12,55 34 +7 Movement for Rights and Freedoms 275.760 10,59 27 −3 Stand Up! Mafia, Get Out! 131.371 5,04 14 0 Bulgarian Patriots 83.718 3,21 0 New Independents 142 0 0 None of the above 33.974 – Total 100,00 240 0 Valid votes 3,247,470 Invalid/blank votes Total votes 3,333,997 Registered voters/turnout 6,578,716 50,68 Source: CIK Very curious. Why are you using a dot instead of a comma for numbers, and a comma instead of a dot for percentages? |
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Post by johnloony on Jul 12, 2021 17:15:18 GMT
Votes % Seats +/– There Is Such A People 622.591 23,91 64 +13 GERB–SDS 616.076 23,66 63 −12 BSP for Bulgaria 354.937 13,63 37 −6 Democratic Bulgaria 326.732 12,55 34 +7 Movement for Rights and Freedoms 275.760 10,59 27 −3 Stand Up! Mafia, Get Out! 131.371 5,04 14 0 Bulgarian Patriots 83.718 3,21 0 New Independents 142 0 0 None of the above 33.974 – Total 100,00 240 0 Valid votes 3,247,470 Invalid/blank votes Total votes 3,333,997 Registered voters/turnout 6,578,716 50,68 Source: CIK Very curious. Why are you using a dot instead of a comma for numbers, and a comma instead of a dot for percentages? That's very common for bontinental people. |
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jul 12, 2021 20:23:55 GMT
Last (?) release from that ExitPoll made by AlphaResearch - this time ethnies:  |
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