Bulgarian elections

[Georg Ebner]

ExCommunists:



Their female PartyLeader refused to retire.

[Georg Ebner]

Here are the numbers of Gallup - but for the election in April (those for yesterDay aren't out so far)!:

[Georg Ebner]

3,01% ReVival (nat.):

3,14% Bulg. Patriots (nat.9:

5,01% IS! MV! (antiCorruption; leftlib.):

10,71% DPS:

12,64% DB:

13.39% BSP+...:

23.51% GERB+SDS:

24.08% ITN:

[Georg Ebner]

Gallup (unfortunately published so far only in Cyrillic):

[Georg Ebner]

[Georg Ebner]

Does anyone want to make maps of the changes from April to July?

If so, then inform me for coordination, please.

[Georg Ebner]

[Georg Ebner]

President Radev announced snapElections on October 2nd - the 5th (?) in a row.

[rcronald]

Aug 2, 2022 15:05:02 GMT Georg Ebner said:

President Radev announced snapElections on October 2nd - the 5th (?) in a row.

Giving Israel a run for our money!

[Georg Ebner]

November 2021 vs. October 2022 (allWays 1%-grades):

[Georg Ebner]

OpinionPolls (thankfully taken from bg.wikipedia):

[Georg Ebner]

The 5th election in 2 years Bulgaria stands with 50% counted roughly, where the pollsters had expected it to be:

According to an exitPoll (by Alpha Research) ~50% of both "big" parties are open to a Grand Coalition (or anything else).

[The Bishop]

BSP drop below 10%, I see - is it mostly old people voting for them now?

[Georg Ebner]

Apr 3, 2023 10:59:12 GMT The Bishop said:

BSP drop below 10%, I see - is it mostly old people voting for them now?

Yes. 
Cf. the numbers of AlphResearch:


And of low (formal) education:



Of Bulgarian plus Roma:



Of small&medium-sized towns (excl. provincial capitals):



...and also of rural villages:


Amusingly they began recently - to hold at least the elderly - a crusade against homo"marriage" aso....

[Georg Ebner]

Votes:

% (measured at only valid votes):

%-deViation from national average:

[Georg Ebner]

Once again statistics of the elec.districts, but this time the partyVotes are measured at the sum of all eligible votes (and not just the valid ones as in my post before):
- votes (naturally the same):

- %:

- %-deViation from national average:

[Georg Ebner]

Comparison of 2022 and 2023.
- vote-changes:

- partyVotes measured at all eligible votes:
-- %:

-- %-deViation from national average:

- partyVotes measured at only valid votes:
-- %:

-- %-deViations:

[Georg Ebner]

The deViations of the electoral districts, as usual in 4 variants:
1) Votes measured at all eligible votes:
a) District-% minus Bulgarian %:
- participation

- invalid:

- none-of-the-above:






b) District divided by Bulgaria:








2) Votes measured at only valid votes:
a) District minus Bulgaria:








b) District divided by Bulgaria:

[Georg Ebner]

The pollingStations have now closed.

First opinionPolls indicate, that in Sofia the PP/DBer (IT-businessMan, son of secretService-torturer) will be far ahead (40%), what was initially expected, but did recently not look so safe any longer. BSP & GERB at 20%.

In Varna GERB & PP/DB are neckToNeck at 27%, with ReNaissance just third (they had hoped for more).

In Plovdiv GERB is in front, though (37:19).

In BlagoevGrad PP/DB is far stronger than GERB.

[Georg Ebner]

Numbers are slowly coming in now here:

results.cik.bg/mi2023/tur1/rezultati/0103.html

The loss of Sofia by GERB to PP&DB will overshadow, that the latter have - if the exitPolls are right - done not so well in the smaller cities&towns (let alone the villages). Not surprising, given the present federal opinionPolls.