carlton43
Reform Party
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Post by carlton43 on Jul 26, 2024 6:57:57 GMT
it is now 3 weeks withut a single poll have the pollsters lost there jobs Wonderful! Three weeks without gibberish and nonsense. And a GE probably just over 4-years away. Perhaps a full 3-years with no polls at all please. |
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Post by batman on Jul 26, 2024 7:36:53 GMT
please, have pity on those of us who work in the polling industry. Even if we don't work on voting intention polls.
The polls mostly didn't do a bad job in the general election, though it was certainly not perfect either. We got the picture pretty well.
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Post by stodge on Jul 26, 2024 8:30:39 GMT
The 2024 GE was a difficult one for the pollsters.
Had it been one way traffic just from Conservative to Labour as it used to be forecasting the outcome would have been simple.
This time the Conservative vote didn't move en bloc - it fragmented. Some went to Labour, some to the Liberal Democrats, some to the Greens, some to Reform and some stayed at home. That wouldn't have been easy to pick up in some areas and you had the added issue of the Labour vote breaking up in some inner urban seats.
We also now know at least half those who voted only decided in the last fortnight - my personal view remains a lot of potential Labour supporters decided the election was won and stayed at home. This is basically what happened in both 2001 and 2005.
There was also a small move back to the Conservatives in the final few days possibly following Farage's comments on Ukraine.
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Post by Merseymike on Jul 26, 2024 8:48:08 GMT
The 2024 GE was a difficult one for the pollsters. Had it been one way traffic just from Conservative to Labour as it used to be forecasting the outcome would have been simple. This time the Conservative vote didn't move en bloc - it fragmented. Some went to Labour, some to the Liberal Democrats, some to the Greens, some to Reform and some stayed at home. That wouldn't have been easy to pick up in some areas and you had the added issue of the Labour vote breaking up in some inner urban seats. We also now know at least half those who voted only decided in the last fortnight - my personal view remains a lot of potential Labour supporters decided the election was won and stayed at home. This is basically what happened in both 2001 and 2005. There was also a small move back to the Conservatives in the final few days possibly following Farage's comments on Ukraine. I definitely agree - Labour voters didn't bother because they were winning. However... 1. Muslim voters felt disillusioned because of Palestine so some voted for Independent candidates. 2. Labour voters decided to vote LibDem because the LD's were likely to win - say seats like Newbury, Maidenhead and South Cotswolds. Labour would not win. |
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Post by batman on Jul 26, 2024 9:24:18 GMT
Clearly some Labour voters who thought the election was won, and that therefore their votes were not needed by Labour, went Green as well in many areas. I have friends & acquaintances who did that.
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Post by stodge on Jul 26, 2024 9:42:33 GMT
The 2024 GE was a difficult one for the pollsters. Had it been one way traffic just from Conservative to Labour as it used to be forecasting the outcome would have been simple. This time the Conservative vote didn't move en bloc - it fragmented. Some went to Labour, some to the Liberal Democrats, some to the Greens, some to Reform and some stayed at home. That wouldn't have been easy to pick up in some areas and you had the added issue of the Labour vote breaking up in some inner urban seats. We also now know at least half those who voted only decided in the last fortnight - my personal view remains a lot of potential Labour supporters decided the election was won and stayed at home. This is basically what happened in both 2001 and 2005. There was also a small move back to the Conservatives in the final few days possibly following Farage's comments on Ukraine. I definitely agree - Labour voters didn't bother because they were winning. However... 1. Muslim voters felt disillusioned because of Palestine so some voted for Independent candidates. 2. Labour voters decided to vote LibDem because the LD's were likely to win - say seats like Newbury, Maidenhead and South Cotswolds. Labour would not win. I think 2 . was going to happen anyway and there was probably anti-Conservative tactical voting which benefited Labour and the Greens as well in some areas. Redfield & Wilton polled about tactical voting and came up with some quite stark numbers about the percentage of Labour and LD voters who would be prepared to vote tactically to defeat a Conservative candidate. For balance, about 45% of Conservatives would be prepared to vote tactically to defeat a Labour or LD candidate as well. 1. - yes, absolutely and given it was small scale set against the country as a whole probably wasn't picked up by the national pollsters. In East Ham, my constituency, the MRPs and predictions all had Timms between 65 and 75% - he got 52%. The Newham Independent running on a pro-Palestine ticket got 18% but the Green got 12%. Absent the Newham Independent, where would the vote have gone? I suspect a lot would have gone to the Green, some for Labour and some would have stayed at home. It's going to be fascinating to see how this impacts on the local polls in 2026. |
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Post by matureleft on Jul 26, 2024 9:51:42 GMT
Clearly some Labour voters who thought the election was won, and that therefore their votes were not needed by Labour, went Green as well in many areas. I have friends & acquaintances who did that. Yup. It's pretty clear that the consistent polls plus Tory defeatist statements ('please don't beat us this hard') gave a lot of left-leaning Labour voters, particularly in seats where the Tories were no threat, a free pass to vote 'with their hearts'. I don't think the Tory swing back was much to do with Farage and Ukraine. Far more likely is that Sunak's effective early concession and repeated stated desire for a strong opposition found some sympathy. Some Tories must have hesitated to hand the party quite the thrashing that some polls were suggesting. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 26, 2024 10:06:14 GMT
There has been one VI survey since the GE, from Omnisis (or whatever they are called now)
If nothing else, it backed up other poll findings showing that the new government is enjoying a post-election honeymoon.
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Post by bigfatron on Jul 26, 2024 10:58:11 GMT
From my anecdotal experience, the expected size of the Tory defeat allowed some Lib Dem and Green voters to feel safe to vote their preference rather than voting tactically for Labour.
I suspect this, combined with low-commitment Labour voters deciding they were safe to stay at home and Tory waverers plumping for their usual party after all, mix together to create the swing effect between the final polls and the actual result.
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Post by Andrew_S on Jul 26, 2024 11:19:56 GMT
From my anecdotal experience, the expected size of the Tory defeat allowed some Lib Dem and Green voters to feel safe to vote their preference rather than voting tactically for Labour. I suspect this, combined with low-commitment Labour voters deciding they were safe to stay at home and Tory waverers plumping for their usual party after all, mix together to create the swing effect between the final polls and the actual result. On 15th June Labour were 110/1 to win between 32% and 34% (in the UK, not GB) with Betfair Exchange. Shows how unlikely people believed that type of result to be at the time. |
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Raddy
Non-Aligned
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Post by Raddy on Jul 30, 2024 8:17:25 GMT
Surely the absence of polls let's everybody reset, come up with their analytical reasons(excuses)for any discrepancy in their polling results, and like astrology leave enough time for people to conveniently forget how wrong they were last time.
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Post by batman on Jul 30, 2024 9:19:09 GMT
it is now 3 weeks withut a single poll have the pollsters lost there jobs Wonderful! Three weeks without gibberish and nonsense. And a GE probably just over 4-years away. Perhaps a full 3-years with no polls at all please. we've had gibberish & nonsense, just not from pollsters. |
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carlton43
Reform Party
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Post by carlton43 on Jul 30, 2024 9:58:00 GMT
Wonderful! Three weeks without gibberish and nonsense. And a GE probably just over 4-years away. Perhaps a full 3-years with no polls at all please. we've had gibberish & nonsense, just not from pollsters. I was in a testy mood when posting and I know of your involvement in that industry. I have quite an ambivalence to polls but feel them to be far too influential especially in the fervid atmosphere of a GE where there are serious fractures in the support for the government of both nations, plus a tricky interloper causing significant uncertainty to many results. And I agree that the gibberish and nonsense by media commentators and many on this Forum are often worse and based on far less evidence. |
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Post by london(ex)tory on Aug 11, 2024 15:37:22 GMT
Wonderful! Three weeks without gibberish and nonsense. And a GE probably just over 4-years away. Perhaps a full 3-years with no polls at all please. we've had gibberish & nonsense, just not from pollsters. Thankfully we've had an Islington by-election to keep us occupied! |
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Post by batman on Aug 11, 2024 16:14:21 GMT
I don't know about you, but I wish that by-election were over rather than the Olympics.
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nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
Posts: 4,463
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Aug 14, 2024 8:36:45 GMT
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Aug 14, 2024 21:03:01 GMT
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Post by London Lad on Aug 29, 2024 6:25:25 GMT
Pollsters still struggling - although to be fair we dont seem half as bad as some other countries.
It comes amid a broader global phenomenon which has seen the popularity of parties of the Left widely overestimated in opinion polling, including in the US presidential race in 2020.
Analysis by polling expert Prof Will Jennings has revealed that pollsters overestimated Labour’s support at the ballot box by the most significant margin since 1970.
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Post by hullenedge on Aug 29, 2024 8:21:58 GMT
A bit more from yesterday:-
There's a global bias to the Left.
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Post by robert1 on Aug 29, 2024 8:50:03 GMT
I hosted and contributed to the session referred to above. Some might want to refer back to page 8 of this thread.....others may prefer not to do so!
The left hand slide was produced by Prof Will Jennings and the right hand slide by Martin Boon.
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