Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,931
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Post by Tony Otim on Jul 12, 2024 12:28:50 GMT
I think pollsters now have very advanced means by which they can make MRP-style projections based on vote share reported back to them and the 'science' is far better than it was 30-40 years ago. What they missed out on this time was the fact that - acc to research I saw a few days ago and was posted elsewhere - around 50% of those who voted LD and Green only decided to do so in the last day or so. This implies they were telling pollsters maybe a week before the GE that they were 'likely' to vote Labour, but once it became clear that a Labour landslide was certain, there was an acknowledgment amongst a lot of voters that Labour needed to have some sort of opposition and switched accordingly. So either 'soft' Labour support was diverted to those parties, as a 2nd preference if you like, or natural LD/Green voters were telling pollsters earlier in the campaign that they were likely to vote Labour to 'get the Tories out' but once they realised mission was going to be accomplished, they felt able to vote for their 1st preference. This meant Greens hit their target seats and LDs exceeded their targets, but as a result, Labour vote share fell from that shown in polling data only days before. One of the next challenges for pollsters is how they accurately assess the 'weight' of tactical voting which may occur (and often late in the day). How do you calculate whether it will be a trickle or a tidal wave, as it seems to have been this time? And yet most polls were pretty accurate on the Green vote share that was actually achieved and may be a point under, but no more for Lib Dems, but 4-5 points over for Labour - so I'm not sure that the Maths really adds up for this to be the whole explanation... |
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Post by redtony on Jul 12, 2024 21:07:23 GMT
When will be the next Poll and who by
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Post by swanarcadian on Jul 12, 2024 21:58:39 GMT
When will be the next Poll and who by Difficult to say. We can’t use the beginning of the last Parliament as a reference guide because it was in the run up to Christmas and the first poll (with BMG) wasn’t conducted until 8-10 January. So going back to June 2017 (although I’d prefer not to..), there were three VI polls conducted within two weeks of polling day. We’re 8 days after the election now so you shouldn’t have too much longer to wait. |
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nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
Posts: 4,463
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Jul 13, 2024 10:41:40 GMT
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,067
Member is Online
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 13, 2024 10:44:44 GMT
I think pollsters now have very advanced means by which they can make MRP-style projections based on vote share reported back to them and the 'science' is far better than it was 30-40 years ago. What they missed out on this time was the fact that - acc to research I saw a few days ago and was posted elsewhere - around 50% of those who voted LD and Green only decided to do so in the last day or so. This implies they were telling pollsters maybe a week before the GE that they were 'likely' to vote Labour, but once it became clear that a Labour landslide was certain, there was an acknowledgment amongst a lot of voters that Labour needed to have some sort of opposition and switched accordingly. So either 'soft' Labour support was diverted to those parties, as a 2nd preference if you like, or natural LD/Green voters were telling pollsters earlier in the campaign that they were likely to vote Labour to 'get the Tories out' but once they realised mission was going to be accomplished, they felt able to vote for their 1st preference. This meant Greens hit their target seats and LDs exceeded their targets, but as a result, Labour vote share fell from that shown in polling data only days before. One of the next challenges for pollsters is how they accurately assess the 'weight' of tactical voting which may occur (and often late in the day). How do you calculate whether it will be a trickle or a tidal wave, as it seems to have been this time? And yet most polls were pretty accurate on the Green vote share that was actually achieved and may be a point under, but no more for Lib Dems, but 4-5 points over for Labour - so I'm not sure that the Maths really adds up for this to be the whole explanation... Though its far from impossible that Greens took some last minute support from Labour whilst losing others to late Tory scare tactics ("stop the supermajority", "they will TAX YOUR PENSION" and so on) so it might all have evened out in the end. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,058
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Post by Sibboleth on Jul 13, 2024 11:04:57 GMT
Though British polling tends to be accurate in broad and general terms (and was again) it does tend to struggle with details, at least most of the time: 2019 seems likely to have been an exception because of quite how frighteningly effective Remain/Leave was as a weight that year. One obvious issue is that they are now very bad at getting demographically representative samples: for instance they often include more enthusiastic, Labour-voting young professionals than is entirely realistic or even plausible outside of certain parts of South London, and that has obvious consequences when actually most parts of the Labour electorate are at the lower end of the motivation and turnout scale, as anyone who has ever worked on a Labour campaign knows...
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,931
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Post by Tony Otim on Jul 13, 2024 15:36:32 GMT
And yet most polls were pretty accurate on the Green vote share that was actually achieved and may be a point under, but no more for Lib Dems, but 4-5 points over for Labour - so I'm not sure that the Maths really adds up for this to be the whole explanation... Though its far from impossible that Greens took some last minute support from Labour whilst losing others to late Tory scare tactics ("stop the supermajority", "they will TAX YOUR PENSION" and so on) so it might all have evened out in the end. That may be true to some extent. I would suggest that bigger factors were polls overestimating the number of Labour voters who would actually turn out to vote as I think sibboleth is suggesting. I think the polls were maybe picking up more Labour voters who just didn't bother than who then voted Green or Lib Dem. I also think the polls in general seem to have understimated the others vote, especially with various indies having done a lot better than anticipated, but I guess this might be something quite hard for polling to pick up. |
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Post by hullenedge on Jul 15, 2024 9:45:18 GMT
Thanks to NM for calculating this stat:-
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,067
Member is Online
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 15, 2024 10:05:44 GMT
Is that a really surprising stat though? In opposition, you *tend* (even if not always) to be ahead in the polls.
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Post by hullenedge on Jul 17, 2024 11:20:39 GMT
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Terry Weldon
Lib Dem
Councilor, Waverley BC and Haslemere TC. Lifelong liberal, in S Africa and now UK
Posts: 307 
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Post by Terry Weldon on Jul 17, 2024 12:01:39 GMT
Fascinating poll on who parties stack up against each other well worth reading the write up. Also starkly illustrates the challenge for those Tories angling to get closer to Reform. Tack right, they could lose to the left. Tack left, they could lose to the right. "One-third (34%) of Conservatives rate Labour more highly than Reform, with a narrow majority (51%) opting for Ed Davey’s Lib Dems over Nigel Farage’s party. Reform voters likewise fail to uniformly favour the Tories over the alternatives, with a quarter (25%) ranking Labour and three in ten (30%) the Lib Dems ahead of the Conservatives. This suggests any such merger would struggle to carry all voters from both parties with it."The table also show that LibDems have their highest favourable rating with youngest voters. Moving beyond the tuition fees issue? ygo-assets-websites-editorial-emea.yougov.net/documents/Internal_PartyRanking_240709_W.pdf |
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Post by observer on Jul 17, 2024 12:18:53 GMT
Very interesting. Suggests that Reform's ceiling - at the moment is 30-35%. Plenty of room for growth there. Labour had a 'landslide' on 33.7% |
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Post by bigfatron on Jul 17, 2024 13:13:16 GMT
Very interesting. Suggests that Reform's ceiling - at the moment is 30-35%. Plenty of room for growth there. Labour had a 'landslide' on 33.7% But 48% of the population rank Reform absolute bottom - those (many) who dislike Reform tend to dislike it intensely and are, presumably, willing to vote tactically to keep it out. Even a slight majority of current Tory voters would vote Lib Dem ahead of Reform. This aligns with my experience of commuter belt Tories of my acquaintance who are currently saying that they will never, ever vote for Farage. |
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Post by hullenedge on Jul 17, 2024 13:54:13 GMT
Very interesting. Suggests that Reform's ceiling - at the moment is 30-35%. Plenty of room for growth there. Labour had a 'landslide' on 33.7% The Brexit Party achieved 31% at the 2019 Euros, albeit a different system and circs, but 30-35% looks a fair range. A successful electoral geography for Reform (or equivalent) would probably see a sweep from South Wales through the Midlands and upwards to the North East. The Home Counties, cities, university towns and Scotland would be unlikely to prove fertile. |
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Post by No Offence Alan on Jul 17, 2024 14:06:16 GMT
Very interesting. Suggests that Reform's ceiling - at the moment is 30-35%. Plenty of room for growth there. Labour had a 'landslide' on 33.7% The Brexit Party achieved 31% at the 2019 Euros, albeit a different system and circs, but 30-35% looks a fair range. A successful electoral geography for Reform (or equivalent) would probably see a sweep from South Wales through the Midlands and upwards to the North East. The Home Counties, cities, university towns and Scotland would be unlikely to prove fertile. Turnout in the 2019 Euro election was about half that in the subsequent general election. |
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Post by hullenedge on Jul 17, 2024 14:31:07 GMT
The Brexit Party achieved 31% at the 2019 Euros, albeit a different system and circs, but 30-35% looks a fair range. A successful electoral geography for Reform (or equivalent) would probably see a sweep from South Wales through the Midlands and upwards to the North East. The Home Counties, cities, university towns and Scotland would be unlikely to prove fertile. Turnout in the 2019 Euro election was about half that in the subsequent general election. True but I wouldn't discount some of its pointers for an alternative electoral geography esp Lib Dems capturing swathes of the Home Counties. |
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Post by hullenedge on Jul 23, 2024 22:41:52 GMT
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Post by hullenedge on Jul 24, 2024 8:01:30 GMT
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Post by hullenedge on Jul 25, 2024 13:02:53 GMT
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Post by redtony on Jul 25, 2024 20:19:11 GMT
it is now 3 weeks withut a single poll
have the pollsters lost there jobs
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