Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,813 
|
Post by Georg Ebner on Mar 10, 2024 20:15:13 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by greenhert on Mar 10, 2024 20:44:34 GMT
You have confused PAN with LIVRE. PAN are Portugal's answer to the Animal Welfare Party. |
|
maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,306
|
Post by maxque on Mar 10, 2024 21:33:59 GMT
You have confused PAN with LIVRE. PAN are Portugal's answer to the Animal Welfare Party. Neither. PAN are economically right-wing Greens. |
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,813
|
Post by Georg Ebner on Mar 10, 2024 22:46:01 GMT
You have confused PAN with LIVRE. PAN are Portugal's answer to the Animal Welfare Party. No, Livre are - like CDU - (Dark)redGreen, their focus is not on ecoLogism. |
|
andrea
Non-Aligned
Posts: 7,772
|
Post by andrea on Mar 10, 2024 23:25:33 GMT
So far
PSD and co 74 seats
Socialists 71 seats
Chega! 44 seats
Liberal Initiative 7 seats
Left Bloc 4 seats
Communists 3 seats
LIVRE 3 seats
Seats still to be assigned: 24
|
|
andrea
Non-Aligned
Posts: 7,772
|
Post by andrea on Mar 10, 2024 23:31:40 GMT
PAN just held their seat in Lisbon.
1 more seat to Chega (45 overall)
5th seat for Left Bloc
21 seats left to be assigned.
|
|
andrea
Non-Aligned
Posts: 7,772
|
Post by andrea on Mar 10, 2024 23:50:06 GMT
PSD and co 77 seats
Socialists 74 seats
Chega! 46 seats
Liberal Initiative 8 seats
Left Bloc 5 seats
LIVRE 4 seats
Communists 3 seats
PAN 1 seat
Seats still to be assigned: 12
|
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,813
|
Post by Georg Ebner on Mar 11, 2024 2:43:06 GMT
Don't get a heartAttack, when You look at the EC's site and see, that they have PS by 2,000 votes ahead - that's caused by listing AD-Madeira extra.
But AD is indeed only 51.000 votes (0.83%) in front.
What is bad for AD - and good for Chega!: The combined left will get 92 seats (with PAN 93) and AD+IL only 89. What means either passive toleration (=abStention) by PS or active support by Chega!'s 48 MPs. Of course, in few weeks/months there might be enough Chega!-deFectors provide a relative majority.
|
|
|
|
Post by greenhert on Mar 11, 2024 8:00:53 GMT
The effectively final results in seat terms are:
AD 79
PS 77
Chega 48
IL 8
Left Bloc 5
CDU 4
LIVRE 4
PAN 1.
A grand coalition beckons...
|
|
andrea
Non-Aligned
Posts: 7,772
|
Post by andrea on Mar 11, 2024 8:20:02 GMT
The effectively final results in seat terms are: AD 79 PS 77 Chega 48 IL 8 Left Bloc 5 CDU 4 LIVRE 4 PAN 1. A grand coalition beckons... The 4 seats left are for the ex-pa nts constituency. 2 for Europe and 2 for extra-Europe Last time it was 3 PS 1 AD. Extra-Europe will likely be 1 PS 1 AD again (just with AD in the lead in terms of votes). Europe will likely go from 2 PS to 1-1. So I would say 2 AD and 2 PS are the most likely outcome for the final 4 seats. |
|
|
|
Post by batman on Mar 11, 2024 9:37:45 GMT
I threw a pair of underpants away a few days ago but didn't realise it would get a constituency in the Portuguese Parliament.
|
|
|
|
Post by finsobruce on Mar 11, 2024 10:39:39 GMT
I threw a pair of underpants away a few days ago but didn't realise it would get a constituency in the Portuguese Parliament. Which grouping are the Y Front part of? |
|
|
|
Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Mar 11, 2024 18:05:08 GMT
The effectively final results in seat terms are: AD 79 PS 77 Chega 48 IL 8 Left Bloc 5 CDU 4 LIVRE 4 PAN 1. A grand coalition beckons... The 4 seats left are for the ex-pa nts constituency. 2 for Europe and 2 for extra-Europe Last time it was 3 PS 1 AD. Extra-Europe will likely be 1 PS 1 AD again (just with AD in the lead in terms of votes). Europe will likely go from 2 PS to 1-1. So I would say 2 AD and 2 PS are the most likely outcome for the final 4 seats. So left of centre parties would be on 93 (PS+LIVRE+PAN+CDU + Left Bloc), the centre-right would be on 89 seats (AD+IL), and Chega on the far right at 48. |
|
|
|
Post by Devil Wincarnate on Mar 11, 2024 19:26:18 GMT
I threw a pair of underpants away a few days ago but didn't realise it would get a constituency in the Portuguese Parliament. Strange, when you consider that the Portuguese sat out the Boxer Rebellion. |
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,813
|
Post by Georg Ebner on Mar 12, 2024 2:39:47 GMT
Pollster-perFormance: - chronologically:  - best (=lowest deViation per polled party):  - last poll of every company:  - seat-proJections:  2022 Pitagórica did best, but not this time. Perhaps only, because their last one was conducted already 2 months ago? |
|
andrea
Non-Aligned
Posts: 7,772
|
Post by andrea on Mar 20, 2024 23:42:03 GMT
The effectively final results in seat terms are: AD 79 PS 77 Chega 48 IL 8 Left Bloc 5 CDU 4 LIVRE 4 PAN 1. A grand coalition beckons... The 4 seats left are for the ex-pa nts constituency. 2 for Europe and 2 for extra-Europe Last time it was 3 PS 1 AD. Extra-Europe will likely be 1 PS 1 AD again (just with AD in the lead in terms of votes). Europe will likely go from 2 PS to 1-1. So I would say 2 AD and 2 PS are the most likely outcome for the final 4 seats. Europe result is in. I got it wrong. PS got 1 seat but lost the second to Chega rather than AD. Chega 18.31% PS 16.22% AD 14.21% UK PS 15.22% (5,670 votes) AD 12.57% Chega 10.12% Left Block 3.68% IL 2.99% PAN 2.77% Livree 2.30% Communists 1.13% 1 consulate is missing for Extra-Europe constituency. AD will get 1 seat. Second is close between Chega and PS. The missing one is Brazil outside San Paulo. |
|
andrea
Non-Aligned
Posts: 7,772
|
Post by andrea on Mar 21, 2024 10:11:39 GMT
1 AD and 1 Chega are the final two seats.Not close for the final seat as the missing parts of Brazil were heavily for Chega over PS
Final
AD 80 MPs (+3)
PS 78 (-42)
Chega 50 (+38)
IL 8 (=)
Left Bloc 5 (=)
Communists 4 (-2)
LIVRE 4 (+3)
PAN 1 (=)
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,916
|
Post by The Bishop on Mar 21, 2024 12:55:38 GMT
As with the actual vote shares, pretty much a straight swap between the PS and Chega.
|
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,813
|
Post by Georg Ebner on Apr 6, 2024 14:13:01 GMT
If anyone is interested in numberCrunching, he can find dozens of spreadSheet-screenShots at my Twitter=X-acCount (on which platForm i have otherWise found disappointingly little this time).
|
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,813
|
Post by Georg Ebner on Apr 6, 2024 14:43:32 GMT
Chega began 2019 in LisbonCity (which includes n.b. with 500k only a small part of the metro!) above national average, but fell 2022 below it. But IL had such a strong overPerFormance, that the (mid)rightBloc in toto received a recordHigh - totally contrary to the Global Trends! (The latter doing since the TroikaYears terribly with pensionists played a big role.) Yet, this time the city swung 5.2% to the left (from 6.2% right of Portugal to 4.2% left of it). PortoCity even 7.4%, though Vila Nova de Gaia (its industrial - portwine - twin across the Douro) just 2.2%, similarily also other more industrial cities like Setúbal or Braga.
Chega gained the most in the Algarve, where it came narrowly first, but then not so much in the (dark)red AlenTejo, as the sensationalists brought up; instead more in Portugal's "MidLands", i.e. the eastern TejoValley (Santarém&PortAlegre).
|
|
