Portuguese elections

[Georg Ebner]

After the Acores had been ruled by PSD for 2 decades, 1996 PS received more votes (45%:41%), but as many seats as PSD. It was CDS (!), which decided for PS, thus paving the way for a hegemony lasting at least 24 years.

[Georg Ebner]

Results of the Islands (or more correctly: Electoral Units) since 1976 (2008 missing):

[Georg Ebner]

PS lost support especially on the main islands (while little on some smaller ones [plus gaining in the CDS-fortress of Flores]).

[Georg Ebner]

The PresidentialElection was happening yesterDay!
Of course, the incumbent - (half-)heartedly endorsed by PSD&CDS - was reelected with 60% and swept even the - not any longer so - communistic AlenTejo-region. Xenophobic Ventura performed best in the BackLand:



The only exciting element was, whether he would end behind an antiFa-woman (supported by Greens&Livre) and have to resign as PartyLeader as promised. And indeed he received with 12% 1% less than her and announced to step down (what will quite certainly result in another reelection).

[The Bishop]

Exit polls did not understate Ventura, intriguingly.

[Georg Ebner]

Ventura performed well also in the eastern parts of AlenTejo:



...what raised speculations of switchers from CDU to Chega!. But CDU held its % there not badly and these are the correlations (not necessarily proving anything, of course) with the last parliamentary election in 2019 of

- CDU:



- PSD&CDS:

[Georg Ebner]

MunicipalityMaps of all candidates:

[Georg Ebner]

CorRelations with ParliamentaryElection 2019:



Though it does not prove anything, as we all know. When Ventura was favoured in the district of Beja in municipalities with more gypsies:



...it's still not so likely, that he was elected by them.

[Georg Ebner]

On SunDay happened also the LocalElections in Portugal.
Different to OpinionPolls they ended with spectacular losses of PS (als CDU was once again retreating). OutStanding was PSD's narrow (1%) gain of Lisbon. Here the mayors of all cities (100.000+) and DistrictCapitals:

But this has hidden the fact, that the PS was all in all still ~5% ahead - the expectations were for PSD just so low. (And these "successes" on the SurFace will enable Rui Rio to hang on as PSD-leader, so in the end - i.e. at the next G.E. - Costa could be the big winner...)

[minionofmidas]

The PS has now essentially punted on four presidential elections in a row. I dimly remember how that came to happen in 2006, and 2011 and 2021 tie to an apparent expectation (/unwritten rule by now?, they're at 5 out of 5) that presidents will serve two terms but what in the world was going on in 2016?

[Georg Ebner]

Feb 2, 2022 16:52:26 GMT minionofmidas said:

The PS has now essentially punted on four presidential elections in a row. I dimly remember how that came to happen in 2006, and 2011 and 2021 tie to an apparent expectation (/unwritten rule by now?, they're at 5 out of 5) that presidents will serve two terms but what in the world was going on in 2016?

It was less, that Costa had underperformed shortly before in his first bid and the geringonca receiving only a small HoneyMoon. More, that prof. Rebelo was from the beginning - even in the final days of PSD&CDS - far ahead (despite having failed once as PartyLeader). As a respectable law-expert on TeleVision being perceived by many as a perfect fit for a position, which is a very much ceremonial one, so being tolerable for lefties, too.

[Deleted]

PS and PSD take one seat each from the European constituency

[Deleted]

UK results:

PS 11,375
PSD 6,963
CH 1,950
BE 1,426
PAN 1,404
IL 1,173
L 846
PCP-PEV 794

Turnout 19.8%

[Georg Ebner]

Madeira is reelecting toDay its government of PSD (+CDS), which has been in power since "forever" (=1976).
With the present climate on the mainLand there is no chance for PS and regionalist JPP is also weakened due to internal quarrels; the performance of Chega! and IL will be not without interEst, but the only question concerning power will be, whether PSD&CDS can achieve an overAll-majority of votes (one of seats is quasi guaranteed).

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Madeiran_regional_election#Graphical_summary

[Devil Wincarnate]

Sept 24, 2023 16:21:52 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Madeira is reelecting toDay its government of PSD (+CDS), which has been in power since "forever" (=1976).
With the present climate on the mainLand there is no chance for PS and regionalist JPP is also weakened due to internal quarrels; the performance of Chega! and IL will be not without interEst, but the only question concerning power will be, whether PSD&CDS can achieve an overAll-majority of votes (one of seats is quasi guaranteed).

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Madeiran_regional_election#Graphical_summary

Once the fief of noted political bruiser Alberto Jardim. Who did nearly 40 years in charge of the island.

[Georg Ebner]

Nearly everything counted and PSD&CDS are at dissppointing 43%, whereas Chega! is with 9% a little bit higher than expected.

The overall seatMajority seems to be out of reach, could be interesting, whom they will prefer, Chega! or localists.

[markgoodair]

Next Election will be held on 10th March 2024.

[Georg Ebner]

The Azores had toDay snapElections.
The opinionPolls saw a close race between PS and PSD&CDS&PPM (monArchists). With Chega! being perhaps once again kingMaker despite their unimpressive apPearance so far (their 2 MPs split with lots of dramas), if most/all of the small parties (IL; PAN; BE, CDU) fail to come in.

[Georg Ebner]

[Georg Ebner]

All pollsters have reported recently a majority for the right bloc:

Aximage saw PS ahead, but 2022 they had performed worst of all: