Focaldata

[Deleted]

Jan 3, 2021 11:45:32 GMT pragmaticidealist said:

I really don't know why Colne Valley (which Labour has only won once in the past four elections, and that very narrowly) counts as being part of the 'Red Wall'.

Because it's north of Birmingham and journalists are idiots?

[finsobruce]

Jan 3, 2021 11:45:32 GMT pragmaticidealist said:

I really don't know why Colne Valley (which Labour has only won once in the past four elections, and that very narrowly) counts as being part of the 'Red Wall'.

Being kind, it's probably because Labour won it as long ago as 1907 (or rather Victor Grayson did), but as you say, basically nonsense.

Only once since Grayson lost in 1910 have Labour been below 30% of the vote (when contesting). The Conservative nadir was 8.4% in 1966 when the Wainwright squeeze got the Liberals over the top, and the Lib Dems declined to 4.1% in 2017.

Apart from an uncontested by election in 1886 (when the unopposed winner was a Liberal Unionist who had previously been the Liberal MP) the Liberals/Lib Dems only failed to contest the seat in 1955, not something that can be said about many seats in the UK.

[jamie]

Jan 3, 2021 11:45:32 GMT pragmaticidealist said:

I really don't know why Colne Valley (which Labour has only won once in the past four elections, and that very narrowly) counts as being part of the 'Red Wall'.

Because the Red Wall is a poorly defined concept that is changed depending on the agenda of the author? 

[Pete Whitehead]

change the o to e and d to m and you get a far more accurate name for this outfit

[Adam in Stroud]

Jan 3, 2021 12:21:33 GMT jamie said:

Jan 3, 2021 11:45:32 GMT pragmaticidealist said:

I really don't know why Colne Valley (which Labour has only won once in the past four elections, and that very narrowly) counts as being part of the 'Red Wall'.

Because the Red Wall is a poorly defined concept that is changed depending on the agenda of the author? 

I presume everyone on here saw the article by Anthony Wells on UKPR a month or two back on the meaning of the phrase.

[justin124]

Jan 2, 2021 20:51:06 GMT Andrew_S said:

Just when you think there won't be another MRP study until 2024 one gets published. The LDs wouldn't really be reduced to 2 seats though.

Indeed - the LDs would be more likely to gain than lose seats. Moreover the Greens would be nearer 2% than 7%.

[iain]

Here’s the spreadsheet:
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1n_iziu4kEuVwjWpO3izXPd8MSlxxwH-Z2DltHbOgN2k/htmlview#

I’d guess that the main problem is that people aren’t thinking about tactical voting outside of election time.

[andrewp]

Jan 3, 2021 13:35:38 GMT iain said:

Here’s the spreadsheet:
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1n_iziu4kEuVwjWpO3izXPd8MSlxxwH-Z2DltHbOgN2k/htmlview#

I’d guess that the main problem is that people aren’t thinking about tactical voting outside of election time.

Labour coming 2nd in Wells, and nearly 2nd in Taunton Deane and St Ives. Hmmm

[bjornhattan]

Jan 3, 2021 13:46:29 GMT andrewp said:

Jan 3, 2021 13:35:38 GMT iain said:

Here’s the spreadsheet:
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1n_iziu4kEuVwjWpO3izXPd8MSlxxwH-Z2DltHbOgN2k/htmlview#

I’d guess that the main problem is that people aren’t thinking about tactical voting outside of election time.

Labour coming 2nd in Wells, and nearly 2nd in Taunton Deane and St Ives. Hmmm

And some of their Labour figures further east seem ridiculously high. They seem to think that the Conservative majorities in the Isle of Wight, Aylesbury, Banbury, and the Bournemouth seats will all be less than 10% (with Labour second in all of those), and that even Winchester will see a Labour vote of over 20%.

I can accept that Labour are doing well in the Home Counties at the moment, but I struggle to see them exceeding their 1997 performance in huge swathes of the region.

[justin124]

Jan 3, 2021 14:27:46 GMT bjornhattan said:

Jan 3, 2021 13:46:29 GMT andrewp said:

Labour coming 2nd in Wells, and nearly 2nd in Taunton Deane and St Ives. Hmmm

And some of their Labour figures further east seem ridiculously high. They seem to think that the Conservative majorities in the Isle of Wight, Aylesbury, Banbury, and the Bournemouth seats will all be less than 10% (with Labour second in all of those), and that even Winchester will see a Labour vote of over 20%.

I can accept that Labour are doing well in the Home Counties at the moment, but I struggle to see them exceeding their 1997 performance in huge swathes of the region.

Labour did win Taunton in 1945 and nearly held it in 1950. Even in 1966 they were only 3,000 or so behind Edward Du Cann.
Interesting that the poll has Labour almost taking Wimbledon again - having held the seat 1997 - 2005 - despite being third place in 2019. A lot of potential to confuse tactical voters there - as happened in Kensington in 2019.Labour is also shown as back in a clear second place in Sutton Carshalton & Wallington which was a Tory/Labour marginal back in the 1970s.

[jamie]

While tactical voting/local campaigning should help the Lib Dems in quite a few seats, we shouldn’t dismiss out of hand the idea that Labour are gaining significantly in seats where the Lib Dems were the main challengers in 2019. A similar thing happened in 2017 where the MRP showed Labour doing surprisingly well in a lot of former Lib Dem held seats and in many cases this was borne out in practice. If the Lib Dems are back in single figures nationally and Labour back near 40%, then Labour will be overtaking them in a lot of their former seats in the south of England.

[Deleted]

"North Somerset North"
"North Swindon North"
"North Thanet North"

[Merseymike]

Jan 3, 2021 14:27:46 GMT bjornhattan said:

Jan 3, 2021 13:46:29 GMT andrewp said:

Labour coming 2nd in Wells, and nearly 2nd in Taunton Deane and St Ives. Hmmm

And some of their Labour figures further east seem ridiculously high. They seem to think that the Conservative majorities in the Isle of Wight, Aylesbury, Banbury, and the Bournemouth seats will all be less than 10% (with Labour second in all of those), and that even Winchester will see a Labour vote of over 20%.

I can accept that Labour are doing well in the Home Counties at the moment, but I struggle to see them exceeding their 1997 performance in huge swathes of the region.

This is what I mean about these figures being unbelievable when considering voter distribution

[Deleted]

I'm also struggling to see the Tories under 55% in South Holland and the Greens at 10% in Stroud while under 50% in Brighton Pavilion. This looks like nonsense

[Merseymike]

Jan 3, 2021 11:45:32 GMT pragmaticidealist said:

I really don't know why Colne Valley (which Labour has only won once in the past four elections, and that very narrowly) counts as being part of the 'Red Wall'.

It's a classic marginal which is if anything moving towards Labour as it has a reasonable Guardianista population.

[bjornhattan]

Jan 3, 2021 15:36:09 GMT @europeanlefty said:

"North Somerset North"
"North Swindon North"
"North Thanet North"

Not to mention
"Bedford and Kempston"
"Richmond Park and North Kingston"

[jollyroger93]

The fact the data for this was taking over the whole of December, says it all ready, ignore it.

[hullenedge]

Jan 3, 2021 15:56:36 GMT jollyroger93 said:

The fact the data for this was taking over the whole of December, says it all ready, ignore it.

Fieldwork is far too long. YouGov was churning out MRPs in under a week last year.

Matt Singh's thoughts:-

[iain]

Jan 3, 2021 15:35:21 GMT jamie said:

While tactical voting/local campaigning should help the Lib Dems in quite a few seats, we shouldn’t dismiss out of hand the idea that Labour are gaining significantly in seats where the Lib Dems were the main challengers in 2019. A similar thing happened in 2017 where the MRP showed Labour doing surprisingly well in a lot of former Lib Dem held seats and in many cases this was borne out in practice. If the Lib Dems are back in single figures nationally and Labour back near 40%, then Labour will be overtaking them in a lot of their former seats in the south of England.

I am willing to believe that Labour could get up to 10 or 12 per cent in Winchester or Cheltenham. But 20 per cent? Nope.

[Merseymike]

Jan 3, 2021 16:12:21 GMT iain said:

Jan 3, 2021 15:35:21 GMT jamie said:

While tactical voting/local campaigning should help the Lib Dems in quite a few seats, we shouldn’t dismiss out of hand the idea that Labour are gaining significantly in seats where the Lib Dems were the main challengers in 2019. A similar thing happened in 2017 where the MRP showed Labour doing surprisingly well in a lot of former Lib Dem held seats and in many cases this was borne out in practice. If the Lib Dems are back in single figures nationally and Labour back near 40%, then Labour will be overtaking them in a lot of their former seats in the south of England.

I am willing to believe that Labour could get up to 10 or 12 per cent in Winchester or Cheltenham. But 20 per cent? Nope.

If Labour want to even think about government they should be standing down in Winchester and Cheltenham.