Jack
Reform Party
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Post by Jack on Jan 2, 2021 20:05:43 GMT
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Jan 2, 2021 20:07:02 GMT
Those Green and Brexit Party figures look very high. I wonder at what point pollsters will stop including the BP? |
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iain
Lib Dem
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Focaldata
Jan 2, 2021 20:10:30 GMT
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Post by iain on Jan 2, 2021 20:10:30 GMT
Looking back through the thread it looks like a lot of what Focaldata has published in the past has been complete tosh, but FWIW they have done a new MRP model:
Conservative - 284 (35.6%)
Labour - 282 (37.7%)
SNP - 57 (3.8%)
LD - 2 (8.7%)
Green - 1 (6.9%)
Brx - 0 (4.4%)
Other - 6 (4 PC, 1 Spk, 1 ?)
NI - 18
I’d certainly be interested in the details of a Con -> LD swing which sees them gain virtually all of our seats.
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jamie
Top Poster
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Post by jamie on Jan 2, 2021 20:21:53 GMT
The Lib Dem vote share is realistic, but at least in practice they would hold onto more of their seats. I’m not sure how they have Orkney and Shetlands gone given it was held when the SNP got 50% Scotland wide in 2015 (and are flatlining compared to 2019 in this poll) while the Lib Dem vote should hold up better in the Conservative facing marginals come an actual election.
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Post by greenchristian on Jan 2, 2021 20:32:38 GMT
Looking back through the thread it looks like a lot of what Focaldata has published in the past has been complete tosh, but FWIW they have done a new MRP model: Conservative - 284 (35.6%) Labour - 282 (37.7%) SNP - 57 (3.8%) LD - 2 (8.7%) Green - 1 (6.9%) Brx - 0 (4.4%) Other - 6 (4 PC, 1 Spk, 1 ?) NI - 18 I’d certainly be interested in the details of a Con -> LD swing which sees them gain virtually all of our seats. Remember that an MRP model is relatively likely to underestimate the seat share of parties which are only competitive in a handful of seats, especially if its support is built on tactical votes.
But those headline figures are weird (I'm incredibly sceptical that the Green vote would have climbed to 6.9%), so I'm more sceptical of the figures.
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Post by Andrew_S on Jan 2, 2021 20:51:06 GMT
Just when you think there won't be another MRP study until 2024 one gets published. The LDs wouldn't really be reduced to 2 seats though.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jan 2, 2021 20:58:49 GMT
Just when you think there won't be another MRP study until 2024 one gets published. The LDs wouldn't really be reduced to 2 seats though. But just imagine the larks if the Lib Dem Parliamentary party consisted only of Sir Ed Davey and Wera Hobhouse. |
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Merseymike
Independent
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Post by Merseymike on Jan 2, 2021 21:01:02 GMT
This seems to take little account of voter distribution
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
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Post by john07 on Jan 2, 2021 21:48:52 GMT
Just when you think there won't be another MRP study until 2024 one gets published. The LDs wouldn't really be reduced to 2 seats though. But just imagine the larks if the Lib Dem Parliamentary party consisted only of Sir Ed Davey and Wera Hobhouse. There used to be jokes about the entire Parliamentary Liberal Party fitting into a Taxi. Until Cyril Smith was elected! |
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nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Jan 2, 2021 21:49:04 GMT
Just when you think there won't be another MRP study until 2024 one gets published. The LDs wouldn't really be reduced to 2 seats though. I live in hope |
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Post by tonygreaves on Jan 2, 2021 22:05:16 GMT
Oh what tosh!
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Post by greenchristian on Jan 2, 2021 22:27:50 GMT
But just imagine the larks if the Lib Dem Parliamentary party consisted only of Sir Ed Davey and Wera Hobhouse. There used to be jokes about the entire Parliamentary Liberal Party fitting into a Taxi. Until Cyril Smith was elected! I've heard the two taxis version of that joke from after he was elected. |
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Post by greenhert on Jan 2, 2021 23:31:16 GMT
This seems to take little account of voter distribution This is true of most polls and of Electoral Calculus' predictions. The Guardian article about this poll also claimed Colne Valley was a "red wall seat" (in relation to the few red wall seats they believed the Conservatives would keep on the basis of these polling figures)-which it most certainly is not. |
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Post by hullenedge on Jan 3, 2021 8:52:51 GMT
Wonder who commissioned a rather pricey MRP poll? Fieldwork dates are 4-29 December. A few extracts:-
The poll says the Lib Dems would cling on only to Bath, and Kingston and Surbiton, both by the tightest of margins.
Of the constituencies that Labour would gain, half (41) are seats in the north of England, Midlands and Wales that voted Labour in 2017 before switching to the Tories in 2019, suggesting that the Labour leader, Sir Keir Starmer, is on course to rebuild his party’s red wall.
Labour is also predicted to win five London seats from the Conservatives, taking Chingford and Woodford Green, Chipping Barnet, Finchley and Golders Green, Hendon, and Kensington.
The Conservatives cling on to just eight of the 43 red wall seats that they won at the last election — Bassetlaw, Bishop Auckland, Colne Valley, Dudley North, Great Grimsby, Penistone and Stocksbridge, Scunthorpe, and Sedgefield.
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Post by monksfield on Jan 3, 2021 10:58:37 GMT
Re: London, The Tories will surely be vulnerable in Wimbledon too? It was only the split between LD and Lab that saved Hammond in 2019.
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Post by london(ex)tory on Jan 3, 2021 11:03:09 GMT
Does this poll allow for creation of regional vote share estimates? Might actually be more interesting / useful than individual constituencies.
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Post by hullenedge on Jan 3, 2021 11:28:53 GMT
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Jan 3, 2021 11:34:12 GMT
There are a couple of inaccuracies on that website. They are using Johnson’s 2017 majority in Uxbridge rather than 2019. They say he will lose Uxbridge then don’t include that seat on the Conservative losses to Labour in London list. |
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Focaldata
Jan 3, 2021 11:45:32 GMT
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Post by pragmaticidealist on Jan 3, 2021 11:45:32 GMT
I really don't know why Colne Valley (which Labour has only won once in the past four elections, and that very narrowly) counts as being part of the 'Red Wall'.
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Post by hullenedge on Jan 3, 2021 11:48:11 GMT
I really don't know why Colne Valley (which Labour has only won once in the past four elections, and that very narrowly) counts as being part of the 'Red Wall'. It is odd or just poor journalism. Hopefully more details of this poll will be released soon. |
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