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Focaldata
Nov 27, 2019 16:00:52 GMT
via mobile
Post by evergreenadam on Nov 27, 2019 16:00:52 GMT
I’m not at all convinced by this data. There are a few weird looking Labour holds - for example Grimsby, Blackpool South and Darlington. The data for Labour in the Welsh valleys is abysmal. There is no data given for East Devon, Eastbourne, Runnymede & Weybridge, Beaconsfield, South West Hertfordshire, Leicester East, Broxtowe, Eddisbury There is an exact draw between Labour and the Tories in Heywood & Middleton. The site gives the following seat changes: Conservative gain from Labour (61): Blyth Valley, Bishop Auckland, Sedgefield, Stockton South, Workington, Barrow & Furness, Lancaster & Fleetwood, Chorley, Burnley, Bolton North East, Bury North, Bury South, Stalybridge & Hyde, Wirral West, Weaver Vale, Warrington South, Crewe & Nantwich, Scunthorpe, Bradford South, Keighley, Colne Valley, Dewsbury, Wakefield, Penistone & Stocksbridge, Don Valley, Rother Valley, High Peak, Derby North, Bolsover, Ashfield, Bassetlaw, Lincoln, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Stoke North, Stoke Central, Wolverhampton South West, Dudley North, Warwick & Leamington, Peterborough, Ipswich, Bedford, Reading East, Portsmouth South, Canterbury, Stroud, Bristol North West, Plymouth Sutton & Devonport, Enfield Southgate, Kensington, Croydon South, Eltham, Newport West, Cardiff North, Bridgend, Gower, Clwyd South, Wrexham, Alyn & Deeside, Delyn, Vale of Clwyd, Ynys Mon Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative (6): St Ives, Cheltenham, Winchester, Lewes, Richmond Park, St Albans Liberal Democrat gain from Labour (5): Battersea, Hampstead & Kilburn, Cambridge, Sheffield Hallam, Leeds North West Liberal Democrat gain from Plaid Cymru (1): Ceredigion Lab do not currently hold Croydon South. |
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Post by finsobruce on Nov 27, 2019 16:07:04 GMT
I’m not at all convinced by this data. There are a few weird looking Labour holds - for example Grimsby, Blackpool South and Darlington. The data for Labour in the Welsh valleys is abysmal. There is no data given for East Devon, Eastbourne, Runnymede & Weybridge, Beaconsfield, South West Hertfordshire, Leicester East, Broxtowe, Eddisbury There is an exact draw between Labour and the Tories in Heywood & Middleton. The site gives the following seat changes: Conservative gain from Labour (61): Blyth Valley, Bishop Auckland, Sedgefield, Stockton South, Workington, Barrow & Furness, Lancaster & Fleetwood, Chorley, Burnley, Bolton North East, Bury North, Bury South, Stalybridge & Hyde, Wirral West, Weaver Vale, Warrington South, Crewe & Nantwich, Scunthorpe, Bradford South, Keighley, Colne Valley, Dewsbury, Wakefield, Penistone & Stocksbridge, Don Valley, Rother Valley, High Peak, Derby North, Bolsover, Ashfield, Bassetlaw, Lincoln, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Stoke North, Stoke Central, Wolverhampton South West, Dudley North, Warwick & Leamington, Peterborough, Ipswich, Bedford, Reading East, Portsmouth South, Canterbury, Stroud, Bristol North West, Plymouth Sutton & Devonport, Enfield Southgate, Kensington, Croydon South, Eltham, Newport West, Cardiff North, Bridgend, Gower, Clwyd South, Wrexham, Alyn & Deeside, Delyn, Vale of Clwyd, Ynys Mon Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative (6): St Ives, Cheltenham, Winchester, Lewes, Richmond Park, St Albans Liberal Democrat gain from Labour (5): Battersea, Hampstead & Kilburn, Cambridge, Sheffield Hallam, Leeds North West Liberal Democrat gain from Plaid Cymru (1): Ceredigion Lab do not currently hold Croydon South. The lowest majority of recent times was 8,697 in 2001 - but i presume this is a typo for Croydon North. |
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Post by formerfifer on Nov 27, 2019 16:10:26 GMT
Lab do not currently hold Croydon South. The lowest majority of recent times was 8,697 in 2001 - but i presume this is a typo for Croydon North. Croydon Central surely? |
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Post by finsobruce on Nov 27, 2019 16:20:20 GMT
The lowest majority of recent times was 8,697 in 2001 - but i presume this is a typo for Croydon North. Croydon Central surely? You're right of course. I was forgetting.  |
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jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 7,065 
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Post by jamie on Nov 27, 2019 17:26:51 GMT
Not an expert on MRP, but from what i know i expect that they struggle to account for local factors eg; strong Lib Dem campaign. Case in point, they have Ashfield Independents doing worse than 2017 despite having their very popular leader now standing as the candidate and much expectation that they are in contention if not favourites.
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Post by AdminSTB on Nov 27, 2019 20:14:48 GMT
The Conservatives gaining Chorley, even without a candidate, would be quite an achievement.
I haven't even considered adding polls for some of the seats mentioned above, at least not yet.
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Post by afleitch on Nov 27, 2019 20:20:46 GMT
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,144
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Post by cogload on Nov 27, 2019 20:36:21 GMT
17% vote share for the Conservatives in O&S? Rightyho |
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Post by afleitch on Nov 27, 2019 20:47:51 GMT
17% vote share for the Conservatives in O&S? Rightyho You're also third in Caithness... If you look at the average vote shares for the 59 seats (which isn't exactly the same as national share but close enough), it's basically the same as Panelbase. Which makes me think that's what they used in Scotland to model with. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Nov 27, 2019 20:51:47 GMT
17% vote share for the Conservatives in O&S? Rightyho A lot of those Scottish figures are pretty dodgy looking, the Western Isles prediction sticks out as well... |
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Post by greenchristian on Nov 28, 2019 14:14:58 GMT
The Coventry figures look odd. Two things stand out. Firstly, Labour's best percentage is in South (the one that's always been most marginal), rather than North East (which has always been super-safe). Secondly, the Greens do best in North East (which has always been the worst constituency for us) and worst in North West (which contains our best two wards). On those figures, South has become a safe seat whilst both North West and North East are marginals. |
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jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 7,065
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Post by jamie on Dec 7, 2019 20:49:54 GMT
Best for Britain have released their final MRP numbers. Also made it easy to compare all 3 waves of data.
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jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 7,065
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Post by jamie on Dec 9, 2019 12:24:40 GMT
Shame they don't put it in spreadsheet format like YouGov.
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Post by andrewp on Dec 10, 2019 20:53:16 GMT
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nelson
Non-Aligned
Posts: 2,645
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Post by nelson on Dec 10, 2019 20:55:12 GMT
PC on 3 when the Lib Dems are only at 14? Hard to see Ceredigion go LD if they're that low. |
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Rural Radical
Labour
Now living in a Labour held ward at Borough level for the first time in many years
Posts: 1,627
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Post by Rural Radical on Dec 10, 2019 20:57:32 GMT
PC on 3 when the Lib Dems are only at 14? Hard to see Ceredigion go LD if they're that low. It could be Labour gaining Arfon |
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Post by manchesterman on Dec 10, 2019 20:58:31 GMT
PC on 3 when the Lib Dems are only at 14? Hard to see Ceredigion go LD if they're that low. Maybe they have them losing Arfon? Although I agree this is unlikely too. |
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Post by manchesterman on Dec 10, 2019 20:59:02 GMT
Great minds  |
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Post by No Offence Alan on Dec 10, 2019 21:20:41 GMT
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,732
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Post by CatholicLeft on Dec 10, 2019 21:42:16 GMT
Altrincham and Sale West Con 46% Lab 33% LD 16%. Really? These kind of figures make me doubt the whole model. |
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