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Post by bjornhattan on Dec 10, 2019 21:47:27 GMT
Altrincham and Sale West Con 46% Lab 33% LD 16%. Really? These kind of figures make me doubt the whole model. That figure is almost identical to YouGov, and feels in the right ballpark. Unless things are radically different on the ground, that's not a figure which makes me suspicious. Blaydon being Con 40% Lab 30% (making it Tyne and Wear's most marginal seat by some way) is a result which does. |
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Post by AdminSTB on Dec 10, 2019 21:49:20 GMT
Great, thank you! If only it would let me copy and paste. |
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,733
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Focaldata
Dec 10, 2019 21:53:30 GMT
via mobile
Post by CatholicLeft on Dec 10, 2019 21:53:30 GMT
Altrincham and Sale West Con 46% Lab 33% LD 16%. Really? These kind of figures make me doubt the whole model. That figure is almost identical to YouGov, and feels in the right ballpark. Unless things are radically different on the ground, that's not a figure which makes me suspicious. Blaydon being Con 40% Lab 30% (making it Tyne and Wear's most marginal seat by some way) is a result which does. An area I know, no 16% for Lib Dems. Paging Devil Wincarnate. |
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Post by AdminSTB on Dec 10, 2019 21:55:39 GMT
Lib Dems 2% ahead in Cities of London and Westminster there...
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froome
Green
Posts: 4,555
Member is Online
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Post by froome on Dec 10, 2019 21:57:40 GMT
The Brighton Pavilion result looks distinctly odd. 17% for 'Other'! And Caroline's percentage falling from over 52% to 31% when we have risen in the polls since 2017's election. No I don't think so.
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Post by bjornhattan on Dec 10, 2019 21:58:00 GMT
Lib Dems 2% ahead in Cities of London and Westminster there... But not even close to third in Kensington or Finchley and Golders Green. |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,931
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Post by Tony Otim on Dec 10, 2019 21:58:29 GMT
17% other in Brighton Pavilion - wtf?  |
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Post by AdminSTB on Dec 10, 2019 22:00:05 GMT
Shipley looks more promising than expected for the Conservatives - 18 points ahead here.
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Post by AdminSTB on Dec 10, 2019 22:01:36 GMT
Labour to beat the Lib Dems by 7 points in Sheffield Hallam.
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middyman
Conservative
"The problem with socialism is that, sooner or later, you run out of other people's money."
Posts: 8,050 
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Post by middyman on Dec 10, 2019 22:01:54 GMT
Disappointing that Ipswich shown as Labour hold even if desperately close.
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Post by tonygreaves on Dec 10, 2019 22:04:15 GMT
What a load of rubbish...
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Rural Radical
Labour
Now living in a Labour held ward at Borough level for the first time in many years
Posts: 1,627
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Focaldata
Dec 10, 2019 22:08:43 GMT
via mobile
Post by Rural Radical on Dec 10, 2019 22:08:43 GMT
Labour hold Barrow
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Post by bjornhattan on Dec 10, 2019 22:08:57 GMT
What a load of rubbish... I have to say it's a bit like the old adage in football - there's only one stat that matters here. |
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Focaldata
Dec 10, 2019 22:50:13 GMT
via mobile
Post by Devil Wincarnate on Dec 10, 2019 22:50:13 GMT
That figure is almost identical to YouGov, and feels in the right ballpark. Unless things are radically different on the ground, that's not a figure which makes me suspicious. Blaydon being Con 40% Lab 30% (making it Tyne and Wear's most marginal seat by some way) is a result which does. An area I know, no 16% for Lib Dems. Paging Devil Wincarnate. Although I'm there at least twice a week, I think owainsutton might be able to give us a better view. But I am inclined to agree with yoj, I can't see 16 per cent for the Lib Dems. Especially as the Greens are standing and heavily working Altrincham. |
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Focaldata
Dec 10, 2019 23:34:24 GMT
via mobile
Post by thirdchill on Dec 10, 2019 23:34:24 GMT
For the couple of seats I have made predictions for, focaldata's lab and con shares virtually match my own.
Starting to doubt my own predictions.......
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Post by thirdchill on Dec 10, 2019 23:35:59 GMT
Although I'm there at least twice a week, I think owainsutton might be able to give us a better view. But I am inclined to agree with yoj, I can't see 16 per cent for the Lib Dems. Especially as the Greens are standing and heavily working Altrincham. There will be some remain vote that will not switch labour (even with Western as the candidate) so saving deposit and getting between 5 and 10 percent is likely. Not 16 percent. |
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Focaldata
Dec 10, 2019 23:59:26 GMT
via mobile
Post by thirdchill on Dec 10, 2019 23:59:26 GMT
It looks as though focaldata has fewer seats changing hands from lab to con, little if anything switching from con to lab.
Majorities for con bigger in their marginal seats than YouGov have, and more instances of labour increasing their majorities in marginals.
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Toylyyev
Mebyon Kernow
CJ Fox avatar
Posts: 1,067
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Post by Toylyyev on Dec 11, 2019 9:10:38 GMT
Great, thank you! If only it would let me copy and paste. The print function of the Lynx web-browser (p keystroke) can save the sheet to a text file. Which might then need some more attention if a specific format is needed. Gnumeric for instance can convert it to a range of formats. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lynx_(web_browser)en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gnumeric |
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Post by greenchristian on Dec 12, 2019 0:31:38 GMT
17% other in Brighton Pavilion - wtf? Loony Landslide.  |
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Post by owainsutton on Dec 13, 2019 19:44:20 GMT
Although I'm there at least twice a week, I think owainsutton might be able to give us a better view. But I am inclined to agree with yoj, I can't see 16 per cent for the Lib Dems. Especially as the Greens are standing and heavily working Altrincham. There will be some remain vote that will not switch labour (even with Western as the candidate) so saving deposit and getting between 5 and 10 percent is likely. Not 16 percent. Well called, they ended up on 11%. Sorry I missed the tag the other day, I'd have predicted similar. |
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