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Post by mattbewilson on Feb 12, 2023 17:45:42 GMT
A bit surprised at this oneā¦ changes are wrong. I've had the email from Survation. Labour down 5 not 8. Tories down 2 not 1
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Post by batman on Feb 12, 2023 17:57:10 GMT
Lab 45 would not be a huge departure from other polling, Lab 42 would be.
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YL
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Post by YL on Feb 12, 2023 18:01:29 GMT
If the figures in the tweet above are correct, then so are the changes (except for the Greens, who should be +2): the last Survation poll in November was Lab 50, Con 27, LD 7, SNP 4, Greens 3, Reform UK 3.
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Survation
Feb 12, 2023 18:22:13 GMT
via mobile
Post by andrewp on Feb 12, 2023 18:22:13 GMT
It is Lab 42
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Post by batman on Feb 12, 2023 18:30:37 GMT
that is quite low by recent standards, let's see if it is borne out in other polling. Not that it is very encouraging for the Tories, a share of the vote of 26% is very low by normal standards
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 13, 2023 9:53:06 GMT
There have been four polls actually taken since this one, which gave Labour a minimum score of 46%. But as ever, we need more data to confirm either way.
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Post by batman on Feb 13, 2023 13:00:06 GMT
Survation used to give Labour the most optimistic results, then they changed their methodology and have tended somewhat (though not heavily I think) towards the more pessimistic. I think that methodology change is still in operation
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Post by andrewp on Mar 11, 2023 22:20:51 GMT
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clyde1998
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Post by clyde1998 on Mar 11, 2023 22:51:49 GMT
A Survation MRP has seemingly gone under the radar on here (standard comment about MRPs):
Survation/38 Degrees (10-17 February) Headline vote share Lab 47.7% (Range of 46-50) Con 29.1% (27-31) LDm 9.7% (8-11) SNP 3.5% (3-4) RUK 3.5% (2-5) Grn 3.0% (2-4) PC 0.7% (0-1) Oth 2.9% (2-4)
Headline seat forecast (probability sum; using 2010 boundaries) Lab 475 (Range of 434-519) Con 100 (57-143) SNP 45 (37-51) LDm 5 (1-12) PC 2 (1-7) Grn 2 (1-4) RUK 2 (1-5) Oth 1 (1-1)
Largest party in each seat forecast: Lab 500; Con 78; SNP 47; LDm 5; Grn 1; PC 0; RUK 0; Oth 0
I would say the Welsh figures for the largest party method would be completely unusable due to stupidly large confidence interval for each parties: examples include a range of 8.5% to 71.8% for Plaid in Dwyfor Meirionnydd and between 14.4% and 55.8% for the Conservatives in Arfon. Scotland and England sees some large ranges too, but nothing akin to Wales from a quick glance. This is probably why the headline figures use a probability sum, but even then it's not great.
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robert1
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Post by robert1 on Mar 12, 2023 8:44:21 GMT
The wikipedia running record of polls has the last Survation poll (10-16th Feb) as Lab on 48. This would result in -3 not -2 as shown. Given others' comments re the Feb figures somewhat confusing?!
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 12, 2023 11:34:56 GMT
Survation don't seem to give some of their polls much publicity.
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Post by andrewp on Mar 17, 2023 17:39:31 GMT
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Mar 21, 2023 17:52:54 GMT
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Post by andrewp on Mar 21, 2023 18:00:45 GMT
Well within the margin of error, and only a change of 1% but the Labour lead of 15 is the smallest lead with Survation since last September.
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Post by woollyliberal on Mar 21, 2023 18:26:36 GMT
Very small sample size of 787 people (812 when weighted).
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Post by batman on Mar 21, 2023 19:00:04 GMT
One poll says Green 13%, this one 2%. They sho' as hail can't both be right. Although all the polls put Labour clearly ahead, there is astonishing variety in the size of their lead, and in the votes for the somewhat smaller parties, as well as in the Conservative vote. The Labour vote is a little steadier in the polls and so is that for the Lib Dems.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 30, 2023 11:58:04 GMT
The latest from this pollster has a 45-31 Labour lead. Pretty slack water as they say.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 15, 2023 10:49:56 GMT
And the latest has Labour increasing their lead to 17 points, apparently.
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carolus
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Post by carolus on May 3, 2023 13:31:38 GMT
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Post by manchesterman on Jun 5, 2023 17:17:58 GMT
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