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Post by finsobruce on Oct 19, 2022 15:00:45 GMT
Survation have dumped some polls etc for Greater Manchester, South Yorkshire, West Yorkshire and West Midlands. As expected massive swings with Labour projected to win every seat. Even Cheadle and Hazel Grove. This is getting a bit silly now. Labour haven't been second in Cheadle since 1955.
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clyde1998
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Post by clyde1998 on Oct 19, 2022 15:09:58 GMT
Survation have dumped some polls etc for Greater Manchester, South Yorkshire, West Yorkshire and West Midlands. As expected massive swings with Labour projected to win every seat. Even Cheadle and Hazel Grove. WalesLab 51% (+15) Con 24% (-17) PC 13% (+3) LDm 6% (nc) Oth 7% (-1) Seats: Lab 39 (+17), PC 1 (-3), Con 0 (-14), LDm 0 (nc), Oth 0 (nc) North EastVote shares TBC Seats: Lab 29, Con 0, LDm 0, Oth 0 Greater ManchesterLab 63% (+15) Con 23% (-12) LDm 7% (-2) Oth 6% (-2) Seats: Lab 27 (+9), Con 9 (-9), LDm 0 (nc), Oth 0 (nc) South YorkshireLab 64% (+22) Con 18% (-14) LDm 12% (+4) Oth 7% (-11) Seats: Lab 14 (+3), Con 0 (-3), LDm 0 (nc), Oth 0 (nc) West MidlandsLab 60% (+16) Con 27% (-17) LDm 6% (nc) Oth 7% (+2) Seats: Lab 28 (+14), Con 0 (-14), LDm 0 (nc), Oth 0 (nc) West YorkshireLab 62% (+13) Con 25% (-17) LDm 7% (nc) Oth 7% (+5) Seats: Lab 22 (+8), Con 0 (-8), LDm 0 (nc), Oth 0 (nc)
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YL
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Post by YL on Oct 19, 2022 15:11:19 GMT
Survation have dumped some polls etc for Greater Manchester, South Yorkshire, West Yorkshire and West Midlands. As expected massive swings with Labour projected to win every seat. Even Cheadle and Hazel Grove. Tables for those areasHilariously it seems to think that 13 out of 14 seats in South Yorkshire are 100% likely to be won by Labour, and the exception, with a 5% chance of voting Lib Dem, is Barnsley East. They also did the North East. Labour 18 points ahead in Berwick, so you can guess the rest.
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clyde1998
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Post by clyde1998 on Oct 19, 2022 15:12:35 GMT
Survation have dumped some polls etc for Greater Manchester, South Yorkshire, West Yorkshire and West Midlands. As expected massive swings with Labour projected to win every seat. Even Cheadle and Hazel Grove. WalesLab 51% (+15) Con 24% (-17) PC 13% (+3) LDm 6% (nc) Oth 7% (-1) Seats: Lab 39 (+17), PC 1 (-3), Con 0 (-14), LDm 0 (nc), Oth 0 (nc) The Lib Dems on 0.35% in Ceredigion and Plaid third in Arfon behind the Conservatives.
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Post by finsobruce on Oct 19, 2022 15:25:42 GMT
Survation have dumped some polls etc for Greater Manchester, South Yorkshire, West Yorkshire and West Midlands. As expected massive swings with Labour projected to win every seat. Even Cheadle and Hazel Grove. Tables for those areasHilariously it seems to think that 13 out of 14 seats in South Yorkshire are 100% likely to be won by Labour, and the exception, with a 5% chance of voting Lib Dem, is Barnsley East. They also did the North East. Labour 18 points ahead in Berwick, so you can guess the rest. Berwick is an interesting seat though as the Liberal vote has sunk by 34% since 2005, with Labour holding second in 2019, having regained it in 2017 for the first time since 1970 (candidate was Bob Wareing!).
It's taken a very, very long time for the 1973 by-election to unwind, but the potential for quite strong growth in the Labour vote would seem to be there.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Oct 19, 2022 16:24:13 GMT
Berwick is an interesting seat though as the Liberal vote has sunk by 34% since 2005, with Labour holding second in 2019, having regained it in 2017 for the first time since 1970 (candidate was Bob Wareing!). It's taken a very, very long time for the 1973 by-election to unwind, but the potential for quite strong growth in the Labour vote would seem to be there. Labour has a very good council vote in the ex-coal mining villages from Ellington up to Amble, places like Berwick and Alnwick have latent Labour potential, and even most of the countryside isn’t quite as nailed on for the Conservatives as you would see elsewhere. Labour probably aren’t going to win it next election, but it’s probably an easier gain than UNS would suggest.
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Post by aargauer on Oct 19, 2022 16:38:42 GMT
Berwick is an interesting seat though as the Liberal vote has sunk by 34% since 2005, with Labour holding second in 2019, having regained it in 2017 for the first time since 1970 (candidate was Bob Wareing!). It's taken a very, very long time for the 1973 by-election to unwind, but the potential for quite strong growth in the Labour vote would seem to be there. Labour has a very good council vote in the ex-coal mining villages from Ellington up to Amble, places like Berwick and Alnwick have latent Labour potential, and even most of the countryside isn’t quite as nailed on for the Conservatives as you would see elsewhere. Labour probably aren’t going to win it next election, but it’s probably an easier gain than UNS would suggest. From this Northumbrians perspective: Alnwick is a very pleasant little town. I don't think labour have much potential here if they are polling more usual figures. Even the horrible little places on the coast are mostly less awful than they used to be and I suspect are getting weaker for labour. If labour take this seat it's going to be a 1931 type win.
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European Lefty
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Post by European Lefty on Oct 19, 2022 17:27:02 GMT
Hexham might be plausible but I struggle to think of any circumstances under which Berwick goes Labour
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Post by finsobruce on Oct 19, 2022 17:51:55 GMT
Hexham might be plausible but I struggle to think of any circumstances under which Berwick goes Labour Just for the avoidance of doubt, I'm not suggesting that we'll actually win it. But we are in a very good position to be the main challengers in a seat where people have written us off for forty years and more.
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Post by andrewp on Oct 19, 2022 18:06:34 GMT
Hexham might be plausible but I struggle to think of any circumstances under which Berwick goes Labour Just for the avoidance of doubt, I'm not suggesting that we'll actually win it. But we are in a very good position to be the main challengers in a seat where people have written us off for forty years and more. Aside from the often discussed Bournemouth’s and Worthing’s which Labour could win for the first time in a big win, there are another group of seats which were won, or fairly narrowly missed, by the LDs in 1997 but where Labour are stronger than they were in 1992 and are starting less far back so on paper could win them in a big win like the often discussed Devon Central and Berwick, Cornwall SE, Truro, Poole, Solihull, Folkestone, Isle of Wight, North Somerset, Weston SM, St Austell. I suppose the untested question is whether in a big win, Labour still have a ceiling in those seats or not.
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Post by aidypiez on Oct 19, 2022 18:12:03 GMT
Tables for those areasHilariously it seems to think that 13 out of 14 seats in South Yorkshire are 100% likely to be won by Labour, and the exception, with a 5% chance of voting Lib Dem, is Barnsley East. They also did the North East. Labour 18 points ahead in Berwick, so you can guess the rest. Berwick is an interesting seat though as the Liberal vote has sunk by 34% since 2005, with Labour holding second in 2019, having regained it in 2017 for the first time since 1970 (candidate was Bob Wareing!).
It's taken a very, very long time for the 1973 by-election to unwind, but the potential for quite strong growth in the Labour vote would seem to be there.
Just to point out, labour came second in Berwick in 1997 when the Tories were third
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Post by greenchristian on Oct 19, 2022 18:12:31 GMT
Survation have dumped some polls etc for Greater Manchester, South Yorkshire, West Yorkshire and West Midlands. As expected massive swings with Labour projected to win every seat. Even Cheadle and Hazel Grove. Note that this is West Midlands county, not to be confused with West Midlands region.
And the tables that YL linked to not bothering to break down those "other" numbers in the tables seems somewhat unprofessional from Survation.
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Post by batman on Oct 19, 2022 21:12:32 GMT
Berwick is an interesting seat though as the Liberal vote has sunk by 34% since 2005, with Labour holding second in 2019, having regained it in 2017 for the first time since 1970 (candidate was Bob Wareing!). It's taken a very, very long time for the 1973 by-election to unwind, but the potential for quite strong growth in the Labour vote would seem to be there. Labour has a very good council vote in the ex-coal mining villages from Ellington up to Amble, places like Berwick and Alnwick have latent Labour potential, and even most of the countryside isn’t quite as nailed on for the Conservatives as you would see elsewhere. Labour probably aren’t going to win it next election, but it’s probably an easier gain than UNS would suggest. I seem to recall Labour not that strong in Berwick itself in the Blair years, but quite strong in the Tweedmouth part of it. I also doubt that Alnwick, in the normal course of events, has much Labour potential, though it might well do at the moment.
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Post by michaelarden on Oct 19, 2022 21:16:57 GMT
Hexham might be plausible but I struggle to think of any circumstances under which Berwick goes Labour I don't see why that's the case at all. Hexham I don't think has ever been anything other than Tory. Berwick has been won by the Liberals on at least one occassion and held for 40+ years. The Lib Dems have collapsed completely in many of the seats they held as recently as 2015 - there is no reason to think a non-Tory alternative couldn't win it given the Tories polling in the 20s or very early 30s.
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Post by batman on Oct 19, 2022 21:47:48 GMT
it does require a significantly smaller swing for Labour to win Hexham than it does Berwick. And while Labour has never been close to winning the latter, on identical boundaries they only missed Hexham by 222 votes in 1997. In stark contrast to much of the North-East, the swing from Labour to the Tories in Hexham since 1997 is slightly below the national average.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Nov 5, 2022 21:25:59 GMT
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 5, 2022 22:21:33 GMT
Thats the same poll that was posted a week ago in the previous post..
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Post by andrewp on Nov 5, 2022 22:26:13 GMT
This weeks Survation
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Nov 5, 2022 22:49:05 GMT
Thats the same poll that was posted a week ago in the previous post.. Sorry, assumed that as Survation had only Tweeted it 10 minutes before I posted it, it was this week’s.
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Post by london(ex)tory on Feb 12, 2023 17:43:20 GMT
A bit surprised at this one…
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