Rural Radical
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Now living in a Labour held ward at Borough level for the first time in many years
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Post by Rural Radical on Jun 7, 2020 8:37:42 GMT
Rugby & Telford (amazingly) are the toughest of that lot, they both need double-figure swings. Though they do occur in general elections more than they used to Telford result last time really does look like a complete freak, though. Especially compared to the local election results there 6 months prior. A lot of it was down to the candidate choice.
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Post by Merseymike on Jun 7, 2020 8:47:44 GMT
Still sounds very much like a hope that Buggins Turn will make a reappearance. Of course, it might, but then the old problem will arise of people voting Labour who could very easily be lost because there's been no actual change of view other than a feeling that it would be nice to alter the name above the door, and that nice Mr Starmer won't really change anything very much anyway.
This will get a Labour government but won't shift things to a socialist society. If that's not what you want anyway, then no doubt you'll be happy.
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The Bishop
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Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 7, 2020 8:54:39 GMT
I genuinely think that you focus too much on leaders tbh.
There is a good chance that a Labour (led) government elected in 2024 will be to the left of when it was last in power. Simply because both the objective circumstances and balance within the party will be markedly different to what they were in the late noughties.
(same is true of the LibDems actually, those suggesting Moran could just move them to the left instantly ignore that the party is a different beast to the Kennedy years)
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Post by finsobruce on Jun 7, 2020 9:01:47 GMT
What is not clear though is how far those shifts are permanent.If Brexit - and Corbyn - were the key factors responsible, why is a return to the status quo ante not realistic when they lose their relevance? The LibDems are very unlikely to gain much mileage at Labour's expense in 2024 by seeking to campaign on the 2003 Iraq war - and the vast majority of Labour votes lost to them in 2005 and 2010 have now returned to Labour. Why is it so difficult to envisage something similar with regard to Labour voters who switched to the Tories in 2017 and 2019? you use Iraq as an example quite alot but it's worth pointing out that the seats the lib Dems gained from Labour because of Iraq they held for 10 years. If that's the bar we are setting for brexit then that still gives the tories another decade with red wall seats Into which you have to factor in that Labour were the government until the election of 2010.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 7, 2020 9:05:00 GMT
look at the tories majority in places the governing party have always won; Amber Valley, Redditch, Waveney, etc. They're huge. They've got like an inbuilt advantage at the next election eh? I was talking about the 30 or so "red wall" seats. Seats you mentioned have been gone for the last 3-4 elections - forget those.
2ndary targets in the Midlands (not including red wall seats) I would point to include: Worcester, Rugby, Telford, Shrewsbury, High Peak, Broxtowe, Erewash, both Northampton seats, Corby, even Rushcliffe (now that the massively popular Ken Clarke is no longer a factor).
All perfectly winnable in 2024 given the state the economy will be in and the opposition looking more like a "government in waiting" that wont frighten the horses.
I address the point on red wall seats with large swings like Penistone and Stocksbridge above. The seats I mentioned arectge traditional marginals that i was referring to and tbf when you said Labour need to rebuild in the Midlands these are typical seats in Derbyshire, Birmingham, etc. Waveney is East Anglia tbf
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 7, 2020 9:06:04 GMT
you use Iraq as an example quite alot but it's worth pointing out that the seats the lib Dems gained from Labour because of Iraq they held for 10 years. If that's the bar we are setting for brexit then that still gives the tories another decade with red wall seats Into which you have to factor in that Labour were the government until the election of 2010. but lets be honest these seats could have really been lib dem seats for as long as they wanted them
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Post by Merseymike on Jun 7, 2020 9:06:27 GMT
Telford result last time really does look like a complete freak, though. Especially compared to the local election results there 6 months prior. A lot of it was down to the candidate choice. I recall that because of an AWS decision they couldn't reselection the previous candidate who nearly won in 2017. However the candidate chosen appears to be a pretty typical middle if the road union official from the local area - what was the problem? I actually think it would not make any difference with a swing like that anyway and the vast majority of voters know pretty much nothing about candidates unless they gave been the MP. You would gave thought given the MP is Lucy Allen that may have been a negative!
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Rural Radical
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Now living in a Labour held ward at Borough level for the first time in many years
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Post by Rural Radical on Jun 7, 2020 9:08:03 GMT
Especially compared to the local election results there 6 months prior. A lot of it was down to the candidate choice. I recall that because of an AWS decision they couldn't reselection the previous candidate who nearly won in 2017. However the candidate chosen appears to be a pretty typical middle if the road union official from the local area - what was the problem? I actually think it would not make any difference with a swing like that anyway and the vast majority of voters know pretty much nothing about candidates unless they gave been the MP. You would gave thought given the MP is Lucy Allen that may have been a negative! I guess the local party (which has always been quite small) didn’t want to work for her
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Post by finsobruce on Jun 7, 2020 9:09:32 GMT
Into which you have to factor in that Labour were the government until the election of 2010. but lets be honest these seats could have really been lib dem seats for as long as they wanted them Er, no.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 7, 2020 9:13:39 GMT
What is not clear though is how far those shifts are permanent.If Brexit - and Corbyn - were the key factors responsible, why is a return to the status quo ante not realistic when they lose their relevance? The LibDems are very unlikely to gain much mileage at Labour's expense in 2024 by seeking to campaign on the 2003 Iraq war - and the vast majority of Labour votes lost to them in 2005 and 2010 have now returned to Labour. Why is it so difficult to envisage something similar with regard to Labour voters who switched to the Tories in 2017 and 2019? Absolutely right. Many thousands of traditional Labour voters turned to the Tories because of Brexit or Corbyn or both. These 2 issues will be a distant memory in 2024. People will be voting on how much their standard of living has fallen in the last 4 years because of Covid/Brexit. History shows that, regardless of which party is in power or whether it was their fault or not, the country gives a kicking to the government that makes enough of them significantly poorer. I see many likely similarities with 2010 actually:
1) Government been in power for 13/14 years - wanting for change 2) Catastrophic world-wide economic collapse 3) Moderate leader of opposition acceptable to "middle of the road" voters
The number of seats held by Tories going into the 2010 election is very similar to the number of seats Labour will hold going into 2024. Likewise with the number of Labour seats in 2010, cf the number of Tory seats going into 2024.
I see no reason - other unknown factors excepted - why Labour couldnt gain 70-80 seats , as Cameron gained about 90 IIRC and was actually criticised for not winning more!!
Cameron was very unique in gaining 90 seats. In most elections the average change in seats is nowhere near that. I think people see big swings of seats as the norm when they really aren't. You could probably name 4 PMs in post war Britain to get 90 seat gain in a GE. worth pointing out the tories had another 5 years after 13 years of government and thatvwas against a moderate opposition leader making moderate gains. I know many of us wish Labour will win the next election but we really must not conflate what we want with what will happen
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 7, 2020 9:14:48 GMT
but lets be honest these seats could have really been lib dem seats for as long as they wanted them Er, no. are seriously telling me Labour would have made 10 gains from the Lib Dems if Clegg had decided to protect his seats rather than go into government with the Tories
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Post by Merseymike on Jun 7, 2020 9:16:16 GMT
I genuinely think that you focus too much on leaders tbh. There is a good chance that a Labour (led) government elected in 2024 will be to the left of when it was last in power. Simply because both the objective circumstances and balance within the party will be markedly different to what they were in the late noughties. (same is true of the LibDems actually, those suggesting Moran could just move them to the left instantly ignore that the party is a different beast to the Kennedy years) I'm deeply pessimistic and I do think who is leader can set the tone. I don't like Starmer, and that's never going to change. So far absolutely nothing has made me more likely to change my mind and vote Labour. Doesn't help that I'm fundamentally at odds with them and everyone else on the lockdown issue, but it's more fundamental. Social democracy has some inherent problems which aren't being thought through as Reynolds latest statement showed only too well.
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Post by matureleft on Jun 7, 2020 9:16:48 GMT
Into which you have to factor in that Labour were the government until the election of 2010. but lets be honest these seats could have really been lib dem seats for as long as they wanted them Presumably you meant to add “if they’d kept out of the coalition”? But even then I’d disagree.
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Post by finsobruce on Jun 7, 2020 9:18:41 GMT
are seriously telling me Labour would have made 10 gains from the Lib Dems if Clegg had decided to protect his seats rather than go into government with the Tories well you are seriously telling us that they would have held onto them regardless of any political circumstances...
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 7, 2020 9:24:04 GMT
are seriously telling me Labour would have made 10 gains from the Lib Dems if Clegg had decided to protect his seats rather than go into government with the Tories well you are seriously telling us that they would have held onto them regardless of any political circumstances... people like having MPs from minor parties. Lib Dems held seats like Bermondsey for over 30 years even when Labour were at the hight of popularity
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Post by Merseymike on Jun 7, 2020 9:27:35 GMT
I recall that because of an AWS decision they couldn't reselection the previous candidate who nearly won in 2017. However the candidate chosen appears to be a pretty typical middle if the road union official from the local area - what was the problem? I actually think it would not make any difference with a swing like that anyway and the vast majority of voters know pretty much nothing about candidates unless they gave been the MP. You would gave thought given the MP is Lucy Allen that may have been a negative! I guess the local party (which has always been quite small) didn’t want to work for her Mind you with that result it looks very much as if Tories who don't bother to vote locally did so in numbers for the General. And Brexit, if course. Telford is a Leave area.
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Post by finsobruce on Jun 7, 2020 9:35:36 GMT
well you are seriously telling us that they would have held onto them regardless of any political circumstances... people like having MPs from minor parties. Lib Dems held seats like Bermondsey for over 30 years even when Labour were at the hight of popularity You are tying yourself up in terrible knots here.
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Post by carlton43 on Jun 7, 2020 9:39:44 GMT
in one sense Labour are in a better place in England than they ever were during the Wilderness years. Remain voters throwing themselves behind Labour has held them hold seats in Bristol, Reading, Canterbury, etc. In 87 Labour only had 155 seats in England compared to 175 today. However, it took Labour 10 years to get to power so perhaps that shouldn't be too much comfort On the other hand despite doing well in remainer heartlands being punished in the rest of Brexit Britain has made Labour's chances in traditional marginals almost impossible Does your last sentence follow once Brexit ceases to be relevant? Why would longstanding Labour voters who switched to the Tories over Brexit continue to vote Tory when the issue has been resolved? Other issues are surely more likely to become important on their radar - particularly in the context of the approaching economic storm. It is a mistake to think of the 2019 vote as a one-off specialist vote by a large grouping making a point over Brexit concerns and a dislike of Corbyn. It was far deeper and wider than that. It was a reflection of a long-term mental change as well as significant amounts of demographic change. We have seen this before in Kent, Norfolk, Lincolnshire and Staffordshire towards the Conservatives. And in Cheshire, Liverpool, Manchester, Glasgow and Edinburgh towards Labour. Latterly we have seen more small scale constituency movement in places like Brighton-Hove, Plymouth, Portsmouth, Southampton and Canterbury. These major shifts in the nature of support are there all the time but often don't appear obvious until a trigger event releases the potential from the prior inertia. Some of the gains will be recovered, some will be marginals for a while but I consider way over a third have changed for the long term.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 7, 2020 9:41:18 GMT
people like having MPs from minor parties. Lib Dems held seats like Bermondsey for over 30 years even when Labour were at the hight of popularity You are tying yourself up in terrible knots here. enlighten me
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Post by justin124 on Jun 7, 2020 11:17:37 GMT
Does your last sentence follow once Brexit ceases to be relevant? Why would longstanding Labour voters who switched to the Tories over Brexit continue to vote Tory when the issue has been resolved? Other issues are surely more likely to become important on their radar - particularly in the context of the approaching economic storm. It is a mistake to think of the 2019 vote as a one-off specialist vote by a large grouping making a point over Brexit concerns and a dislike of Corbyn. It was far deeper and wider than that. It was a reflection of a long-term mental change as well as significant amounts of demographic change. We have seen this before in Kent, Norfolk, Lincolnshire and Staffordshire towards the Conservatives. And in Cheshire, Liverpool, Manchester, Glasgow and Edinburgh towards Labour. Latterly we have seen more small scale constituency movement in places like Brighton-Hove, Plymouth, Portsmouth, Southampton and Canterbury. These major shifts in the nature of support are there all the time but often don't appear obvious until a trigger event releases the potential from the prior inertia. Some of the gains will be recovered, some will be marginals for a while but I consider way over a third have changed for the long term. Trigger events are only likely to reveal themselves with hindsight in so far as they exist at all. The examples of Kent and Norfolk are both interesting. In 1997 Labour made unexpected gains in places such as Thanet South - Sittingbourne & Sheppey - Medway which were retained until 2010. All have now reverted to being safe Tory seats in a pattern little changed from the 80s and 90s. Much the same can be said about the Labour gains made in Essex in seats such as Harwich - Braintree - Castle Point. Norfolk provides a good example of longterm underlying demographic change. The rural seats there were generally very marginal until the 1970s when rapid population growth and the decline of the former Agricultural Workers' Union made them safe Tory seats - only NW Norfolk being a possibility now for Labour in very good years. On the other hand, some regions have shown great volatility over several generations.In the West Midlands , the Tories did very well in 1959 with only a small swing back to Labour in 1964. 1966 saw a big pro-Labour swing there which was reversed in 1970 . Volatility continued in Feb 1974 which saw a strong Labour performance. Only time will tell which pattern best describes what happened in the Red Wall seats.The massive swings in seats such as Bassetlaw- Grimsby - Sedgefield - Don Valley - Rother Valley - Scunthorpe - Workington etc occurred over a period of just two and a half years , and makes me doubt whether the substantial Tory majorities we now see in some of them are at all solid.I don't pretend to know - but that is far too short a period to explain any underlying demographic shift such as occured in the rural Norfolk seats over decades.
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