Deleted
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Jun 6, 2020 22:11:01 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Jun 6, 2020 22:11:01 GMT
the 8 seats would be Bridgend, Vale of Glamorgan, Delyn, Wrexham, S Clwyd, Vale of Clwyd, Aberconwy & Ynys Mon. I make it no Labour gains from Plaid at this stage OK lets say they gain 8 seats in Wales and 8 in Scotland - that is hardly doing more than putting a dent in their majority, so my original point stands. Labour needs to see a recovery in England to get anywhere. Firstly regaining the red wall seats then targeting the "soft" Tory support in W & E midlands. in one sense Labour are in a better place in England than they ever were during the Wilderness years. Remain voters throwing themselves behind Labour has held them hold seats in Bristol, Reading, Canterbury, etc. In 87 Labour only had 155 seats in England compared to 175 today. However, it took Labour 10 years to get to power so perhaps that shouldn't be too much comfort On the other hand despite doing well in remainer heartlands being punished in the rest of Brexit Britain has made Labour's chances in traditional marginals almost impossible
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Post by manchesterman on Jun 6, 2020 22:17:26 GMT
How do you figure that? Unless you think brexit (esp the looming NDB) will be a great economic success?!
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Jun 6, 2020 22:19:16 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Jun 6, 2020 22:19:16 GMT
I think Labour regaining all the red wall seats will be a long term goal there are seats now that switched in a way that have made them very difficult to regain. Take Penistone & Stocksbridge. 7% swing even if we do well at the next election you must bare in mind only 4 PMs in post war Britain have achieved a 5% swing. I think even on these numbers we only regain one seat in Stoke. I could be wrong. There are all those seats like NE Derbyshire which must be distant memories now. There are seats we should gain without much difficulty; Blyth Valley, Bridgend, etc. seats that really should be Labour seats but there are a swathe of seats that are now harder to regain than seats we never had in 1997 But most of those seats swung far more than the national swing in 2019 - some massively so. The two factors generally held responsible were Corbyn and Brexit - neither of which has much relevance now.I suspect that seats such as Penistone- Grimsby- Sedgefield- Workington - Don Valley - Rother valley etc are likely to swing back as sharply as they swung away last year - notwithstanding longterm demographic trends in some seats.Why would seats which voted Labour under Milliband in 2015 now be beyond reach? because we're living in a different world than the one on 2015. One where Labour hold Hallam but not Bolsover. Some of these seats will come back but not all. I've campaigned in Penistone and Stockbridge. If the seat still exists it will be a steep hill to climb. There working class estates like High Green where you used to be able to weigh the votes but because of apathy the place has been allowed to grow an anti Labour feeling not just nationally. I don't think Labour has won the vote in High Green for a long time. Brexit will be on thr books for a long time to come. No FTA with EU agreed by the ebd of the year. 8 years of FTA negotiations with the US. It'll go on and on
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Jun 6, 2020 22:22:32 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Jun 6, 2020 22:22:32 GMT
How do you figure that? Unless you think brexit (esp the looming NDB) will be a great economic success?! look at the tories majority in places the governing party have always won; Amber Valley, Redditch, Waveney, etc. They're huge. They've got like an inbuilt advantage at the next election
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Post by justin124 on Jun 6, 2020 22:22:45 GMT
OK lets say they gain 8 seats in Wales and 8 in Scotland - that is hardly doing more than putting a dent in their majority, so my original point stands. Labour needs to see a recovery in England to get anywhere. Firstly regaining the red wall seats then targeting the "soft" Tory support in W & E midlands. in one sense Labour are in a better place in England than they ever were during the Wilderness years. Remain voters throwing themselves behind Labour has held them hold seats in Bristol, Reading, Canterbury, etc. In 87 Labour only had 155 seats in England compared to 175 today. However, it took Labour 10 years to get to power so perhaps that shouldn't be too much comfort On the other hand despite doing well in remainer heartlands being punished in the rest of Brexit Britain has made Labour's chances in traditional marginals almost impossible Does your last sentence follow once Brexit ceases to be relevant? Why would longstanding Labour voters who switched to the Tories over Brexit continue to vote Tory when the issue has been resolved? Other issues are surely more likely to become important on their radar - particularly in the context of the approaching economic storm.
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Merseymike
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Jun 6, 2020 22:23:56 GMT
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Post by Merseymike on Jun 6, 2020 22:23:56 GMT
How do you figure that? Unless you think brexit (esp the looming NDB) will be a great economic success?! Do you not realise just how much Leave voters in Blackpool and Leigh wanted to leave? I did vote Remain but I don't see why we can't do OK outside the EU. Not sure whether the Tory free marketeers would be prepared to apply protectionist policies though and that will be required. Labour? Under Starmer? Also unlikely....
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Post by justin124 on Jun 6, 2020 22:33:57 GMT
But most of those seats swung far more than the national swing in 2019 - some massively so. The two factors generally held responsible were Corbyn and Brexit - neither of which has much relevance now.I suspect that seats such as Penistone- Grimsby- Sedgefield- Workington - Don Valley - Rother valley etc are likely to swing back as sharply as they swung away last year - notwithstanding longterm demographic trends in some seats.Why would seats which voted Labour under Milliband in 2015 now be beyond reach? because we're living in a different world than the one on 2015. One where Labour hold Hallam but not Bolsover. Some of these seats will come back but not all. I've campaigned in Penistone and Stockbridge. If the seat still exists it will be a steep hill to climb. There working class estates like High Green where you used to be able to weigh the votes but because of apathy the place has been allowed to grow an anti Labour feeling not just nationally. I don't think Labour has won the vote in High Green for a long time. Brexit will be on thr books for a long time to come. No FTA with EU agreed by the ebd of the year. 8 years of FTA negotiations with the US. It'll go on and on I am not persuaded that Brexit will be any more of a salient issue in 2024 than it was in 2010 - or indeed any more than the 2003 Iraq War was a key issue in 2010. In 2019 people were just sick to death of the subject and were unimpressed by the associated never ending parliamentary shenanigans. Johnson promised to 'Get Brexit Done' and as long as Starmer has no plans to seek to rejoin the EU - which he clearly does not - it seems unlikely that voters will wish to resume the conversation on this highly technical subject. 2015 is but 5 years ago - not a generation. Why have things changed so much in such a short time - beyond the Brexit and Corbyn factors?
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Post by justin124 on Jun 6, 2020 22:37:49 GMT
How do you figure that? Unless you think brexit (esp the looming NDB) will be a great economic success?! look at the tories majority in places the governing party have always won; Amber Valley, Redditch, Waveney, etc. They're huge. They've got like an inbuilt advantage at the next election They are big majorities - but they came about very quickly and that does raise questions as to how solid the Tory support there is likely to be. A bit like the surprise Labour gains in Kent and Essex back in 1997. All those seats are safely Tory again.
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Post by manchesterman on Jun 6, 2020 22:41:28 GMT
How do you figure that? Unless you think brexit (esp the looming NDB) will be a great economic success?! look at the tories majority in places the governing party have always won; Amber Valley, Redditch, Waveney, etc. They're huge. They've got like an inbuilt advantage at the next election eh? I was talking about the 30 or so "red wall" seats. Seats you mentioned have been gone for the last 3-4 elections - forget those.
2ndary targets in the Midlands (not including red wall seats) I would point to include: Worcester, Rugby, Telford, Shrewsbury, High Peak, Broxtowe, Erewash, both Northampton seats, Corby, even Rushcliffe (now that the massively popular Ken Clarke is no longer a factor).
All perfectly winnable in 2024 given the state the economy will be in and the opposition looking more like a "government in waiting" that wont frighten the horses.
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Deleted
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Jun 6, 2020 22:41:49 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Jun 6, 2020 22:41:49 GMT
in one sense Labour are in a better place in England than they ever were during the Wilderness years. Remain voters throwing themselves behind Labour has held them hold seats in Bristol, Reading, Canterbury, etc. In 87 Labour only had 155 seats in England compared to 175 today. However, it took Labour 10 years to get to power so perhaps that shouldn't be too much comfort On the other hand despite doing well in remainer heartlands being punished in the rest of Brexit Britain has made Labour's chances in traditional marginals almost impossible Does your last sentence follow once Brexit ceases to be relevant? Why would longstanding Labour voters who switched to the Tories over Brexit continue to vote Tory when the issue has been resolved? Other issues are surely more likely to become important on their radar - particularly in the context of the approaching economic storm. i still think brexit will be an issue but brexit britain just refers to places outside big cities where traditional marginals are and labour's biggest challenge is
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Post by Deleted on Jun 6, 2020 22:45:41 GMT
look at the tories majority in places the governing party have always won; Amber Valley, Redditch, Waveney, etc. They're huge. They've got like an inbuilt advantage at the next election They are big majorities - but they came about very quickly and that does raise questions as to how solid the Tory support there is likely to be. A bit like the surprise Labour gains in Kent and Essex back in 1997. All those seats are safely Tory again. not that quick. The tories have done well to build up solid majorities over 10 years. Just to give you the picture of Labours challenge. Labour gained Waveney on 15% swing. Labour would not gain it now on that swing
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Jun 6, 2020 22:53:54 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Jun 6, 2020 22:53:54 GMT
because we're living in a different world than the one on 2015. One where Labour hold Hallam but not Bolsover. Some of these seats will come back but not all. I've campaigned in Penistone and Stockbridge. If the seat still exists it will be a steep hill to climb. There working class estates like High Green where you used to be able to weigh the votes but because of apathy the place has been allowed to grow an anti Labour feeling not just nationally. I don't think Labour has won the vote in High Green for a long time. Brexit will be on thr books for a long time to come. No FTA with EU agreed by the ebd of the year. 8 years of FTA negotiations with the US. It'll go on and on I am not persuaded that Brexit will be any more of a salient issue in 2024 than it was in 2010 - or indeed any more than the 2003 Iraq War was a key issue in 2010. In 2019 people were just sick to death of the subject and were unimpressed by the associated never ending parliamentary shenanigans. Johnson promised to 'Get Brexit Done' and as long as Starmer has no plans to seek to rejoin the EU - which he clearly does not - it seems unlikely that voters will wish to resume the conversation on this highly technical subject. 2015 is but 5 years ago - not a generation. Why have things changed so much in such a short time - beyond the Brexit and Corbyn factors? people's voting patterns have changed and that is probably the most salient thing after all its how they vote that determin who wins. There are Labour voters in 2015 that'd never vote tory but they do now. There are 2015 Tories that wouldn't vote for Miliband but now vote Labour. The Tories now run NE Derbyshire and Bassetlaw. Labour have almost a dozen councillors in Worthing and Adur. Good article on it here from Ian Warren www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/may/09/tories-southern-red-south-england-london
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Post by justin124 on Jun 6, 2020 23:06:27 GMT
I am not persuaded that Brexit will be any more of a salient issue in 2024 than it was in 2010 - or indeed any more than the 2003 Iraq War was a key issue in 2010. In 2019 people were just sick to death of the subject and were unimpressed by the associated never ending parliamentary shenanigans. Johnson promised to 'Get Brexit Done' and as long as Starmer has no plans to seek to rejoin the EU - which he clearly does not - it seems unlikely that voters will wish to resume the conversation on this highly technical subject. 2015 is but 5 years ago - not a generation. Why have things changed so much in such a short time - beyond the Brexit and Corbyn factors? people's voting patterns have changed and that is probably the most salient thing after all its how they vote that determin who wins. There are Labour voters in 2015 that'd never vote tory but they do now. There are 2015 Tories that wouldn't vote for Miliband but now vote Labour. The Tories now run NE Derbyshire and Bassetlaw. Labour have almost a dozen councillors in Worthing and Adur. Good article on it here from Ian Warren www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/may/09/tories-southern-red-south-england-londonWhat is not clear though is how far those shifts are permanent.If Brexit - and Corbyn - were the key factors responsible, why is a return to the status quo ante not realistic when they lose their relevance? The LibDems are very unlikely to gain much mileage at Labour's expense in 2024 by seeking to campaign on the 2003 Iraq war - and the vast majority of Labour votes lost to them in 2005 and 2010 have now returned to Labour. Why is it so difficult to envisage something similar with regard to Labour voters who switched to the Tories in 2017 and 2019?
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Post by manchesterman on Jun 6, 2020 23:18:31 GMT
people's voting patterns have changed and that is probably the most salient thing after all its how they vote that determin who wins. There are Labour voters in 2015 that'd never vote tory but they do now. There are 2015 Tories that wouldn't vote for Miliband but now vote Labour. The Tories now run NE Derbyshire and Bassetlaw. Labour have almost a dozen councillors in Worthing and Adur. Good article on it here from Ian Warren www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/may/09/tories-southern-red-south-england-londonWhat is not clear though is how far those shifts are permanent.If Brexit - and Corbyn - were the key factors responsible, why is a return to the status quo ante not realistic when they lose their relevance? The LibDems are very unlikely to gain much mileage at Labour's expense in 2024 by seeking to campaign on the 2003 Iraq war - and the vast majority of Labour votes lost to them in 2005 and 2010 have now returned to Labour. Why is it so difficult to envisage something similar with regard to Labour voters who switched to the Tories in 2017 and 2019? Absolutely right. Many thousands of traditional Labour voters turned to the Tories because of Brexit or Corbyn or both. These 2 issues will be a distant memory in 2024. People will be voting on how much their standard of living has fallen in the last 4 years because of Covid/Brexit. History shows that, regardless of which party is in power or whether it was their fault or not, the country gives a kicking to the government that makes enough of them significantly poorer. I see many likely similarities with 2010 actually:
1) Government been in power for 13/14 years - wanting for change 2) Catastrophic world-wide economic collapse 3) Moderate leader of opposition acceptable to "middle of the road" voters
The number of seats held by Tories going into the 2010 election is very similar to the number of seats Labour will hold going into 2024. Likewise with the number of Labour seats in 2010, cf the number of Tory seats going into 2024.
I see no reason - other unknown factors excepted - why Labour couldnt gain 70-80 seats , as Cameron gained about 90 IIRC and was actually criticised for not winning more!!
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Jun 6, 2020 23:31:37 GMT
The electorate responds to the options that it is given. The Labour Party that contested the 2019 election was essentially a different party to the one that contested the 2015 election, at least from the perspective of the electorate.* The Labour Party that contests the next election (whenever it is) will be an essentially different party to the one that contested the 2019 election. I don't know quite how the electorate will respond, but there's no reason to assume it will be the same as the response to the party's previous incarnation. Or the same as any other previous incarnations, obviously. The various party brands themselves are much, much weaker than most people involved in the political process assume.
*The version that contested the 2017 election was roughly in between the two, and wasn't that just the whole trick?
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Post by manchesterman on Jun 6, 2020 23:37:43 GMT
I appreciate this is a political forum so we all think about stuff like these much more deeply than the average voter. All they really see are (and with apologies to the other parties) "this lot" or "the other lot". They wont be analysing whether the Labour party of 2024 is different from the 2015 or 2019 version.
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Jun 7, 2020 1:38:11 GMT
They wont be analysing whether the Labour party of 2024 is different from the 2015 or 2019 version. But that's the thing: they just know and then respond accordingly.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 7, 2020 8:24:56 GMT
people's voting patterns have changed and that is probably the most salient thing after all its how they vote that determin who wins. There are Labour voters in 2015 that'd never vote tory but they do now. There are 2015 Tories that wouldn't vote for Miliband but now vote Labour. The Tories now run NE Derbyshire and Bassetlaw. Labour have almost a dozen councillors in Worthing and Adur. Good article on it here from Ian Warren www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/may/09/tories-southern-red-south-england-londonWhat is not clear though is how far those shifts are permanent.If Brexit - and Corbyn - were the key factors responsible, why is a return to the status quo ante not realistic when they lose their relevance? The LibDems are very unlikely to gain much mileage at Labour's expense in 2024 by seeking to campaign on the 2003 Iraq war - and the vast majority of Labour votes lost to them in 2005 and 2010 have now returned to Labour. Why is it so difficult to envisage something similar with regard to Labour voters who switched to the Tories in 2017 and 2019? you use Iraq as an example quite alot but it's worth pointing out that the seats the lib Dems gained from Labour because of Iraq they held for 10 years. If that's the bar we are setting for brexit then that still gives the tories another decade with red wall seats
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Rural Radical
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Post by Rural Radical on Jun 7, 2020 8:31:47 GMT
You get this but really, the complacency of some Starmer fans is much the same as some Corbynites post 2017 I can assure you that I am not meeting complacency anywhere in the Labour Party at present. The scale of the task makes complacency not a serious option. The assertion re only being enough to gain one Stoke seat (Central) is correct. Amazing though that may seem, it would take quite a large swing for Labour to take North and an impossible-seeming one to add South. Newcastle-under-Lyme is much more winnable than South now Stafford is more winnable than South
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 7, 2020 8:34:44 GMT
eh? I was talking about the 30 or so "red wall" seats. Seats you mentioned have been gone for the last 3-4 elections - forget those.
2ndary targets in the Midlands (not including red wall seats) I would point to include: Worcester, Rugby, Telford, Shrewsbury, High Peak, Broxtowe, Erewash, both Northampton seats, Corby, even Rushcliffe (now that the massively popular Ken Clarke is no longer a factor). All perfectly winnable in 2024 given the state the economy will be in and the opposition looking more like a "government in waiting" that wont frighten the horses.
Rugby & Telford (amazingly) are the toughest of that lot, they both need double-figure swings. Though they do occur in general elections more than they used to Telford result last time really does look like a complete freak, though.
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