Merseymike
Independent
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Post by Merseymike on Jun 2, 2019 8:19:11 GMT
The latest statements say that he is planning to have candidates in every constituency. Of course that could be bluster, pressure on those considering jumping etc More likely to keep the pressure on the Tories (and particularly the current leadership contenders) for 'no deal'. I think those who want No Deal don't need their minds changing - so may be MPs who want to leave but with a deal? Though I think the best way of deflating some of the fervour would be to sign a deal. A lot of the current angst is deep but not broad. |
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Jun 2, 2019 8:38:27 GMT
Philip Hollobone and Kate Hoey are obvious suspects. Anyone else likely? Any member of Parliament who a) wants to leave, b) does not support their parties official policy on Brexit (if that policy is not to leave) and c) feels that if there was a REMAIN alliance, standing as the party they are at the moment they would lose. Therefore could I put forward a unlikely candidate in the form of Stephen Lloyd MP (Ind Lib Dem, Eastbourne). |
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Post by jacoblamsden on Jun 2, 2019 8:59:04 GMT
I'm not sure that Farage would take even want many of the ERG Conservatives. It also surprised me how few of the UKIP intake which jumped ship to the Brexit Party were even placed on the regional lists in the EU elections - I think 14 switched to the BXP, but only Farage, Bullock and Gill were selected as Brexit Party candidates. I get the impression that Nigel would prefer to select relatively unknown 'normal people' candidates such as Mike Greene in Peterborough, rather than take people like Peter Bone, Chris Chope, etc - all of whom carry significant political baggage and would simply repel the more left-leaning parts of Farage's electoral coalition. Also, to have lots of Tory MPs defecting but very few/no Labour MPs would weaken the argument that the Brexit Party is not simply a Thatcherite, UKIP-esque party in disguise - it would be far more trouble than its worth I'd have thought.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jun 2, 2019 9:06:20 GMT
I'm not sure that Farage would take even want many of the ERG Conservatives. It also surprised me how few of the UKIP intake which jumped ship to the Brexit Party were even placed on the regional lists in the EU elections - I think 14 switched to the BXP, but only Farage, Bullock and Gill were selected as Brexit Party candidates. I get the impression that Nigel would prefer to select relatively unknown 'normal people' candidates such as Mike Greene in Peterborough, rather than take people like Peter Bone, Chris Chope, etc - all of whom carry significant political baggage and would simply repel the more left-leaning parts of Farage's electoral coalition. Also, to have lots of Tory MPs defecting but very few/no Labour MPs would weaken the argument that the Brexit Party is not simply a Thatcherite, UKIP-esque party in disguise - it would be far more trouble than its worth I'd have thought. We don't see it as much here, as newer parties rarely get traction, but it's a standard approach in Europe- take a couple of old hands to look credible (even if they're a bit rum) and pack the rest with lesser-known people with no record to attack. Macron did the same (old hands like Collomb) and Le Pen as well (old hands like Collard). |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 2, 2019 9:25:56 GMT
Given the fate of Mark Reckless I don't see any doing so!
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neilm
Non-Aligned
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Post by neilm on Jun 2, 2019 11:20:56 GMT
We don't see it as much here, as newer parties rarely get traction, but it's a standard approach in Europe- take a couple of old hands to look credible (even if they're a bit rum) and pack the rest with lesser-known people with no record to attack. Macron did the same (old hands like Collomb) and Le Pen as well (old hands like Collard). I'm sorry to be very LibDem in mentioning it, only the way it happens in Europe is because they are not stifled by FPTP. Start-up parties here have to fight against not necessarily being first preference in constituencies, and that can smother momentum pretty quickly. What has just come to me as I type is another factor which is not just unique to Britain, I suspect, and that's a lack of electoral opportunities to prove yourself: there are nowhere near as many parliamentary by-elections as there once was, so there's not that opportunity to have a run of good results I wonder why there are so few by elections, or at least why there seem to be fewer. |
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middyman
Conservative
"The problem with socialism is that, sooner or later, you run out of other people's money."
Posts: 8,050
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Post by middyman on Jun 2, 2019 11:25:22 GMT
I'm sorry to be very LibDem in mentioning it, only the way it happens in Europe is because they are not stifled by FPTP. Start-up parties here have to fight against not necessarily being first preference in constituencies, and that can smother momentum pretty quickly. What has just come to me as I type is another factor which is not just unique to Britain, I suspect, and that's a lack of electoral opportunities to prove yourself: there are nowhere near as many parliamentary by-elections as there once was, so there's not that opportunity to have a run of good results I wonder why there are so few by elections, or at least why there seem to be fewer. Improving Health Service under the Conservatives? |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jun 2, 2019 12:21:12 GMT
We don't see it as much here, as newer parties rarely get traction, but it's a standard approach in Europe- take a couple of old hands to look credible (even if they're a bit rum) and pack the rest with lesser-known people with no record to attack. Macron did the same (old hands like Collomb) and Le Pen as well (old hands like Collard). I'm sorry to be very LibDem in mentioning it, only the way it happens in Europe is because they are not stifled by FPTP. Start-up parties here have to fight against not necessarily being first preference in constituencies, and that can smother momentum pretty quickly. What has just come to me as I type is another factor which is not just unique to Britain, I suspect, and that's a lack of electoral opportunities to prove yourself: there are nowhere near as many parliamentary by-elections as there once was, so there's not that opportunity to have a run of good results Whilst I don't disagree entirely, France is an oddity- its two-round system is not much beyond FPTP. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jun 2, 2019 12:22:20 GMT
We don't see it as much here, as newer parties rarely get traction, but it's a standard approach in Europe- take a couple of old hands to look credible (even if they're a bit rum) and pack the rest with lesser-known people with no record to attack. Macron did the same (old hands like Collomb) and Le Pen as well (old hands like Collard) In an interview recorded the other week Gerard Batten, commenting on TBP's subscriber model said "it's no secret that he [Farage] has always admired Geert Wilders because he has subscribers not members" One irony now is that most of the pro EU MPs are completely immersed in the world of Westminster and don't follow continental politics too closely. Farage by contrast has lived and worked in the world of continental politics for two decades now. He's had examples like National Rally, PVV, Five Star Movement, En Marche, going back further Forza Italia, right in front of him the whole time. He lives and works in the world of those parties and has drawn on what has worked for them in setting up his new party Contrast that with Change UK, very pro EU and seem to know nothing outside the world of Westminster. It goes to show that being a Leaver doesn't mean one dislikes Europe, and being a Remainer doesn't mean one likes it! |
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Post by yellowperil on Jun 2, 2019 12:34:05 GMT
I wonder why there are so few by elections, or at least why there seem to be fewer. Improving Health Service under the Conservatives? LOL |
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Post by yellowperil on Jun 2, 2019 12:40:24 GMT
With his sister already an MEP for the Brexit party, I'm surprised no one has mentioned Jacob Rees-Mogg, especially if the Tory leadership doesn't go the way he wants. I doubt Farage would want him - too much alternative star quality. |
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middyman
Conservative
"The problem with socialism is that, sooner or later, you run out of other people's money."
Posts: 8,050
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Post by middyman on Jun 2, 2019 12:41:24 GMT
Improving Health Service under the Conservatives? LOL Why are so many on this forum so po-faced? |
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Post by yellowperil on Jun 2, 2019 12:48:37 GMT
Why are so many on this forum so po-faced? If that's aimed at me, seems inappropriate given I have chosen to laugh rather than list in exactly how many ways the original post was wrong. That would have been a very long post.  |
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carlton43
Reform Party
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Post by carlton43 on Jun 2, 2019 12:51:20 GMT
In the present climate this all looks less likely than in the UKIP fervour before the 2016 Referendum. There are just too many uncertainties.
The constraints are very strong
1) Both majors are under the cosh and need support. So gut loyalty.
2) Is the BP effect seen likely to fizzle out like UKIP did within short term?
3) Will Farage want and welcomre re-treads from other parties with baggage.
4) What would potential converts be signing up to in a policy complete vacuum?
5) How would their constituents react to defection.
6) Total boat burning for rest of political career.
The advantages are
A) Probably save a seat under threat for at least one term.
B) Might seem best or only route to swift and/or No Deal departure from EU.
C) Could be seen to assist transformation of British politics in new direction.
D) Only in Conservative Party as nothing more right-wing or more eurosceptic.
E) Feeling increasingly uncomfortable under Cameron and May and witless dither.
F) The Conservative Party are now much worse placed than in 2016.
But on balance I see far too much to lose and no certainly of even short-term gain for any MP unless in a very marginal seat, outside the whip or suspended and under a cloud.
However, all that could change if a Remainer or a soft Brexit supporter of the May WA wins the leadership contest, there is another coronation after candidates withdraw on Round 2 in favour of say Hunt, BP has stonking win at Peterborough, and BP stays ahead in the polls for 2-more months at 30% or so.
If there is a HOC meltdown resulting in a lost confidence vote and early GE this year, I can see a lot of people just wondering if it might be worth it just for one more term and a better pension.
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Post by yellowperil on Jun 2, 2019 13:29:54 GMT
Given the fate of Mark Reckless I don't see any doing so! Nobody that Reckless? |
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Vibe
Non-Aligned
Posts: 931
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Post by Vibe on Jun 2, 2019 13:55:29 GMT
Nobody will join before November. If it all goes shut side up after that and the main 2 are in the gutter , then masses would join to save their own ass. Let's see what happens between them and now.
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Post by warofdreams on Jun 2, 2019 14:02:23 GMT
Nobody will join before November. If it all goes shut side up after that and the main 2 are in the gutter , then masses would join to save their own ass. Let's see what happens between them and now. Very few Labour MPs would consider joining, Hoey is the obvious possibility, so it doesn't really matter how Labour are doing after that, it's all about who leads the Tories and how they perform. |
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Post by finsobruce on Jun 2, 2019 14:11:51 GMT
Given the fate of Mark Reckless I don't see any doing so! Nobody that Reckless? Mark my words. |
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Post by polaris on Jun 4, 2019 9:15:19 GMT
Whether many, or indeed any, Tory MPs defect to the BxP will largely depend on who wins the Tory leadership and how the Brexit process plays out over the next few months.
The obvious place to look for possible defectors is in the ranks of the ERG, although many of them will have strong tribal loyalty to the Tory Party, and decades of friendships within the party that they won't want to break.
For likely defectors, I would be looking at MPs who may:
- not have very deep roots in the Conservative Party (people who came to politics later in life)
- have strained relationships with their constituency associations
- be in constituencies which the Tories may struggle to hold in a general election - so they feel that they have nothing to lose and might as well roll the dice.
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Post by finsobruce on Jul 8, 2019 22:06:53 GMT
Kate Hoey saying "I will not seek re-election as a Labour candidate" And she wishes good luck to her successor in Vauhall Doesn't rule out running for another party in another constituency though She doesn't rule out taking part in Strictly Come Dancing, or starting a career in stand up comedy either.  |
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