Prediction Competition - May 2019

[middleenglander]

There are 5 contests during the rest of May, 4 by-elections and 1 postponed election for 2 seats:
* 2 on 9 May
* 2 on 23 May, including the postponed election, and
* 1 on 30 May.

1 of the by-elections is for a District Council, last contested in 2018,
- with the postponed election also for a District Council on new boundaries
1 is in a London Borough last contested in 2018
1 is for a Scottish Council last contested in 2017 whilst
1 is in a Welsh Council last contested in 2017

Conservatives defend 1 seat following the resignation of the former Councillor
Labour defend 1 seat following the death of the former Councillor
Liberal Democrats defend 1 seat following a death
Residents defend one seat also following a death
Independents won in 2015 the previous seats in the postponed election on an old boundary.

Conservatives have candidates for all 6 seats, Labour 5, Liberal Democrat 4, UKIP 2 along with 1 each for Green, Plaid Cymru and SNP
- together with 3 Independents contesting 2 elections for 3 seats, 1 Upminster & Cranham Resident and 1 British Unity & Sovereignty
a total of 25 candidates for the 6 seats.

Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am on day of election. The Scottish contest should include both first preference share and also ultimate winner.

[johnloony]

I predikt

East Lothian: Con 31 SNP 30 Lab 29 LD 8 UKIP 2 (Con win)
Havering: UCRA 73 Con 13 LD 5 UKIP 4 Lab 3 Green 2

[Robert Waller]

East Lothian: Con 25 SNP 31 Lab 32 LD 10 UKIP 2 (SNP win)
Havering: UCRA 64 Con 13 LD 5 UKIP 5 Lab 8 Green 5

[Tony Otim]

East Lothian: Lab 30.0; SNP 29.3; Con 28.9; LD 10.4; UKIP 1.4 (Lab to win on transfers)
Havering: UCRA 63.3; Con 11.9; Lab 8.2; UKIP 6.9; LD 5.4; Grn 4.3

[Toylyyev]

May 8, 2019 12:05:15 GMT Tony Otim said:

East Lothian: Lab 29.2; Con 28.1; SNP 27.5; LD 9.1; Grn 4.7; UKIP 1.4 (Lab to win on transfers)
Havering: UCRA 63.3; Con 11.9; Lab 8.2; UKIP 6.9; LD 5.4; Grn 4.3

There is no Green candidate in Haddington & Lammermuir. Had the same glitch in my first guess.

[Toylyyev]

East Lothian UA, Haddington & Lammermuir: SNP 31, Labour 29, Conservative 23, Liberal Democrat 14, UKIP 3. (Labour to win after transfers)

Havering LBC, Cranham: Upminster and Cranham Residents Association 66, Conservative 10, Green 7, Labour 7, UKIP 6, Liberal Democrat 4.

[ElectionMapsUK]

East Lothian: SNP 32%, LAB 30%, CON 26%, LDM 8%, UKIP 4% - Labour win on transfers

Havering: UKRA 66%, CON 14%, LAB 7%, LDM 7%, UKIP 5%, GRN 4%

[robbienicoll]

Haddington and Lammermuir, East Lothian: Con 24, Lab 33, LD 10, UKIP 3, SNP 30 - Lab to win on transfers
Cranham, Havering: Con 15, Lab 8, LD 5, Green 7, UKIP 2, UCRA 63

[iainbhx]

Haddington and Lammermuir (East Lothian SUA): SNP 33 LAB 31 CON 24 LDM 10 UKIP 2 - Lab to win on Transfers
Cranham, (Havering LBC): UCRA 68 LAB 10 CON 8 UKIP 6.1 GRN 5.9 LDM 2

[Deleted]

East Lothian: SNP 40%, LAB 20%, CON 30%, LDM 5%, UKIP 5% - SNP win on transfers

Havering: UCRA 55%, CON 15%, LAB 5%, LDM 5%, UKIP 15%, GRN 5%

[Davıd Boothroyd]

EAST LOTHIAN Haddington and Lammermuir: C 32, Lab 27, SNP 27, L Dem 12, UKIP 2. Lab win on transfers.
HAVERING Cranham: UCRA 66, C 15, Lab 7, UKIP 6, L Dem 4, GP 2

[ricmk]

EAST LOTHIAN Con 30 Lab 30 SNP 29 L Dem 10 UKIP 1 Lab win on transfers.
HAVERING: UCRA 65 Con 15, Lab 7, UKIP 5 L Dem 5 Green 3

[casualobserver]

East Lothian: Lab 28 Con 27 SNP 27 LD 13 UKIP 5 (Lab win on transfers)
Havering: UCRA 68 Con 11 UKIP 6 Lab 6 LD 5 Green 4

[yellowperil]

East Lothian, Haddington & Lammermuir: Con 24,Lab 31, LD 9, UKIP 2, SNP 34.    Lab win on transfers.
Havering , Cranham: Con 10, Lab 6, LD 3, Green 5, UKIP 13, UCRA 63.

[Right Leaning]

East Lothian, Haddington & Lammermuir: SNP 35, Lab 32, C 22, LD 9, UKIP 2. Lab win on transfers.
Havering , Cranham: UCRA 62, UKIP 13, C 12, Lab 7, LD 3, Green 3.

[andrewp]

East Lothian. Haddington and Lammermuir. Lab 33, SNP 30, Con 27, LD 8, UKIP 2. Lab to win.
Havering, Cranham. UCRA 64, UKIP 12, Con 10, Lab 8, LD 3, Green 3

[olympian95]

East Lothian: SNP 31, Con 29, Lab 28, LD 8 UKIP 4

Havering: UCRA 63, Con 14, UKIP 10, Lab 7, LD 4 Green 2

[jamesrodriguez]

East Lothian, Haddington & Lammermuir: Con 33, SNP 28, Lab 20, LD 15, UKIP 4 (Con on transfers).

Havering, Cranham: UCRA 62, Con 17, Lab 8, UKIP 6, Grn 4, LD 3.

[greenhert]

East Lothian UA, Haddington & Lammermuir (1st preferences): SNP 32, Conservative 29, Labour 22, Liberal Democrats 14, UKIP 3. (Conservative to win on transfers)
Havering LBC, Cranham: UCRA 60, Conservative 17, Labour 9, UKIP 5, Green 5, Liberal Democrats 4.

[middleenglander]

17 entrants for the first week of May. electionmapsuk gets 3 additional faults for adding to 103% in Havering whilst greenrobinhood gets 2 x 15 additional faults for posting after 11 am.

East Lothian, Haddington & Lammermuir: 8 SNP ahead on first preferences, andrewp, Casual Observer, robbienicoll, Robert Waller & Tony Otim Labour ahead with David Boothroyd, jamesrodriguez & John Loony Conservative ahead whilst ricmk has Conservative & Labour tied on first preferences
- 11 have Labour the ultimate winner, greenrobinhood, jamesrodriguez & John Loony Conservative elected, priceofdawn & Robert Waller SNP Elected whilst Olympian95 gets 5 addition faults for not specifying a winner.

Havering, Cranham: 100% Resident Association hold with share ranging from 60% (greenrobinhood) 55% (priceofdawn) to 73% (John Loony)