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Post by matureleft on Apr 14, 2019 9:16:02 GMT
The election is due on 6 October. On current trends a left-led government will be re-elected. The economy has improved sharply (in part through EU/ECB support or forebearance) and the seemingly fragile (in 2015) agreement supporting the Socialist-based government has survived. It's been held up as an example of how alternative, non-austerity policies can work but the truth (as always) seems a little more complicated!
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 14, 2019 9:44:51 GMT
It is, but it is also undeniable that the PS has been more willing to break with "third way" orthodoxy than some sister European parties who are now almost moribund.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Apr 14, 2019 9:50:08 GMT
It is, but it is also undeniable that the PS has been more willing to break with "third way" orthodoxy than some sister European parties who are now almost moribund. That said, they have also been quite prudent fiscally. If anything, they've quietly got on with trying to govern the country, whereas the Portuguese centre-right have ponced around trying and failing to score points. Which is reflected in their collapse in the polls in recent months. |
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Post by Merseymike on Apr 14, 2019 9:58:57 GMT
It is, but it is also undeniable that the PS has been more willing to break with "third way" orthodoxy than some sister European parties who are now almost moribund. That said, they have also been quite prudent fiscally. If anything, they've quietly got on with trying to govern the country, whereas the Portuguese centre-right have ponced around trying and failing to score points. Which is reflected in their collapse in the polls in recent months. Wasting money doesn't make sense whether the aims are left or right wing. The money wasted in the NHS and the duplication of much backroom administrative activity because of the fear of legal action is a good example |
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Toylyyev
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Post by Toylyyev on Oct 5, 2019 21:52:29 GMT
Latest polls for for tomorrow's Portuguese legislative election.
Fieldwork Size PSD% PS% BE% CDS% CDU% PAN% L% IL% A% CH% O%¹
PitagĂ³rica-8² 23/9-3/10 6600 28 37 9.5 4.1 6.7 3.7 1.1 1.1 1 1.3 6.5
Aximages 26/9-2/10 2171 26.8 36.5 10.7 4.9 6.6 3.8 1.3 1.1 n/a 1.3 7
Intercampus 26/9-1/10 1000 26.1 35 8.7 4.5 8 5.6 n/a n/a n/a n/a 12.1
Eurosondagem 25/9-1/10 2071 25.5 38.8 9.6 5 7.1 4 n/a n/a n/a n/a 10
UCP-CESOP 26-29/9 3226 30 37 10 5 6 3 1 1 1 1 6
GfK/Metris 23-29/9 1330 28 38 10 5 6 3 .5 .2 .3 .4 7
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Average% 27.4 37.1 9.8 4.8 6.7 3.9 1 .9 .8 1 6.7
Δ(2015)% -11.2³ +4.8 -.4 n/a³ -1.6 +2.5 +.3 n/a n/a n/a -2.8
PPD/PSD - EPP - Partido Popular DemocrĂ¡tico / Partido Social Democrata (Social Democratic Party)
PS - S&D - Partido Socialista (Socialist Party)
BE - GUE/NGL - Bloco de Esquerda (Left Bloc)
CDS-PP - EPP - Partido do Centro DemocrĂ¡tico Social - Partido Popular (CDS – People's Party)
CDU - - ColigaĂ§Ă£o DemocrĂ¡tica UnitĂ¡ria (Unitary Democratic Coalition)
GUE/NGL PCP - Partido Comunista PortuguĂªs (Portuguese Communist Party)
Greens/EFA PEV - Partido Ecologista Os Verdes (Watermelons Pioneer)
PAN - Greens/EFA - Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (People–Animals–Nature)
L - DIEM25 - LIVRE (FREE)
IL - Renew? - Iniciativa Liberal (Liberal Initiative)
A - NI - Aliança (Alliance)
CH - NI - CHEGA! (ENOUGH!)
Like Madeira, the Azores are also volcanic, and pretty active at it, but the next election there isn't currently due til October 2020. [1] Averages for L, IL, A & CH substacted from the score where the poll didn't have numbers for these. [2] Average of the last 8 polls by PitagĂ³rica,, 7 with n=600 and one with n=2400, which counts double in the average. [3] Electoral pact between the PSD and CDS-PP in 2015 called Portugal Ă Frente (Portugal Ahead). |
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 5, 2019 23:23:30 GMT
The election is due on 6 October. On current trends a left-led government will be re-elected. The economy has improved sharply (in part through EU/ECB support or forebearance) and the seemingly fragile (in 2015) agreement supporting the Socialist-based government has survived. It's been held up as an example of how alternative, non-austerity policies can work but the truth (as always) seems a little more complicated! If i was a LeftWinger like You, i wouldn't count on PS: The PSD portrayed PS&BE&CDU before&after 2015 as a leftextreme ChaosClub driving Portugal into insolvence, but this strategy failed, exactly because PS has acted very moderately (and the econmy has done well, too). Out of panic the "SocialDemocrats" have even tried to outflank the Socialists (more money for NHS, against WildFires aso.), what demoralized lots of supporters. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Oct 6, 2019 0:06:14 GMT
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Post by matureleft on Oct 6, 2019 9:36:02 GMT
The election is due on 6 October. On current trends a left-led government will be re-elected. The economy has improved sharply (in part through EU/ECB support or forebearance) and the seemingly fragile (in 2015) agreement supporting the Socialist-based government has survived. It's been held up as an example of how alternative, non-austerity policies can work but the truth (as always) seems a little more complicated! If i was a LeftWinger like You, i wouldn't count on PS: The PSD portrayed PS&BE&CDU before&after 2015 as a leftextreme ChaosClub driving Portugal into insolvence, but this strategy failed, exactly because PS has acted very moderately (and the econmy has done well, too). Out of panic the "SocialDemocrats" have even tried to outflank the Socialists (more money for NHS, against WildFires aso.), what demoralized lots of supporters. Well, as this site constantly demonstrates, all things are relative. I'd describe myself as mainstream Labour. Others have claimed that I'm right-wing and ought to join another party!
They seem to have governed fairly competently without the (economically illiterate but politically important) bristling hair shirt policies adopted in some other places, including the UK. However the Portuguese may well see it differently!
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 6, 2019 12:01:49 GMT
If i was a LeftWinger like You, i wouldn't count on PS: The PSD portrayed PS&BE&CDU before&after 2015 as a leftextreme ChaosClub driving Portugal into insolvence, but this strategy failed, exactly because PS has acted very moderately (and the econmy has done well, too). Out of panic the "SocialDemocrats" have even tried to outflank the Socialists (more money for NHS, against WildFires aso.), what demoralized lots of supporters. Well, as this site constantly demonstrates, all things are relative. I'd describe myself as mainstream Labour. Others have claimed that I'm right-wing and ought to join another party!
They seem to have governed fairly competently without the (economically illiterate but politically important) bristling hair shirt policies adopted in some other places, including the UK. However the Portuguese may well see it differently!
I knew. With "LeftWinger" i also didn't mean "left-extreme"/"left-radical". |
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 6, 2019 18:22:37 GMT
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 6, 2019 19:12:40 GMT
If i was a LeftWinger like You, i wouldn't count on PS: The PSD portrayed PS&BE&CDU before&after 2015 as a leftextreme ChaosClub driving Portugal into insolvence, but this strategy failed, exactly because PS has acted very moderately (and the econmy has done well, too). Out of panic the "SocialDemocrats" have even tried to outflank the Socialists (more money for NHS, against WildFires aso.), what demoralized lots of supporters. Well, as this site constantly demonstrates, all things are relative. I'd describe myself as mainstream Labour. Others have claimed that I'm right-wing and ought to join another party!
They seem to have governed fairly competently without the (economically illiterate but politically important) bristling hair shirt policies adopted in some other places, including the UK. However the Portuguese may well see it differently!
There is one school of criticism, which mainly is that the Socialists have made cutbacks in some areas but not others. Which is hardly a shocker and not much of a criticism. |
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Post by Toylyyev on Oct 6, 2019 19:13:30 GMT
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 6, 2019 20:27:13 GMT
Mrs.Cristas (CDS) has just resigned. Perhaps CDS will move back to the right of PSD in future?
XenoPhobia does - as the EP-elections demonstrated - obviously not work in a country of e-migration.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 6, 2019 21:37:02 GMT
Mrs.Cristas (CDS) has just resigned. Perhaps CDS will move back to the right of PSD in future? XenoPhobia does - as the EP-elections demonstrated - obviously not work in a country of e-migration. Or where those emigrants were replaced by half a million Portuguese fleeing the colonies, destitute. |
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 6, 2019 22:52:16 GMT
Mrs.Cristas (CDS) has just resigned. Perhaps CDS will move back to the right of PSD in future? XenoPhobia does - as the EP-elections demonstrated - obviously not work in a country of e-migration. Or where those emigrants were replaced by half a million Portuguese fleeing the colonies, destitute. Foreigners observed surprised&irritated in the era of imperialism 100-150 years ago, that the Portuguese were the only Europeans, who had no feeling of superiority. |
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 6, 2019 22:54:19 GMT
In Lisbon except PAN all parties - what includes PS - have lost %.
In Oporto PSD has been able to improve its numbers (despite not as large as CDS' losses).
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 6, 2019 22:57:09 GMT
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 6, 2019 23:16:50 GMT
PS&PAN won't have a majority. CDS will certainly not cooperate after such a disaster; CDU lost over 2% (much for their solid base) and are presently at 10 (formerly 15) MPs, so they will be at least luke-warm; as Rui Rio can remain (for some time), PS will have to rely sometimes on BE, sometimes on PSD.
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Post by Toylyyev on Oct 6, 2019 23:26:17 GMT
Changes from 2015 for the districts and wards can displayed on the elections site with the ' Ver resultados de 2015' button above the maps. Edit: The Europe constituency has new wards for Belgium, Luxembourg, and the UK. And according to wort.lu (pt) the foreign constituencies will be counted on October 16th. |
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 6, 2019 23:53:01 GMT
Changes from 2015 for the districts and wards can displayed on the elections site with the ' Ver resultados de 2015' button above the maps. Thank You! You mean the site of the Electoral Commission (where i can see nothing at all with my old iPhone)? |
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