Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,922 
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Apr 10, 2019 13:41:50 GMT
With the European Elections now happening, I've been toying with the idea of what would have happened if we hadn't ditched FPTP Euro constituencies, so on that idea I would like to present Wales. Using the data from the Boundary Review, Wales is entitled to 4 MEP's, therefore each constituency would have an electorate of around 545,000 and (for simplicity) would be based on whole council areas or current parliamentary constituencies where no other option was possible. The four that I have created are:
Wales North and Montgomeryshire: 548,115
The Heart of Wales and Swansea: 545,167
The South Wales Valleys: 534,247
Gwent and South Glamorgan: 554,285
As to the composition, the constituencies are made up as follows:
Wales North and Montgomeryshire: Ynys Môn, Gwynedd, Conwy, Denbighshire, Flintshire, Wrexham and the current Montgomeryshire constituency
The Heart of Wales and Swansea: Ceredigion, Carmarthenshire, Pembrokeshire, Swansea and the current Brecon and Radnorshire constituency and the current Neath constituency
The South Wales Valleys: Bridgend, Rhondda Cynon Taff, Caerphilly, Blaenau Gwent
Gwent and South Glamorgan: The Vale of Glamorgan, Cardiff, Torfaen, Newport, Monmouthshire
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 10, 2019 13:43:51 GMT
Nice idea, but did doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ help with the names? Heart of Wales and Swansea?? |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 10, 2019 14:16:27 GMT
It makes sense to use complete districts which would mean not worrying too much about equalising electorates. You could use groups of constituencies as was done before, but that wouldn't solve that problem as (for example) in the East of England there are 58 parliamentary constituencies and 7 MEPs so you would have 5 European constituencies of 8 constituencies and 2 of 9.
SO I'd propose for the East of England
1/ Bedfordshire & North Hertfordshire (The three Beds unitaries plus North Hertfordshire and Stevenage) 594,829
2/ Hertfordshire (Dacorum, East Herts, Hertsmere, St Albans, Three Rivers, Watford, Welwyn Hatfield) 579,825
3/ West Essex (Broxbourne, Basildon, Brentwood, Chelmsford, Epping Forest, Harlow, Thurrock) 638,989
4/ East Essex (Braintree, Castle Point, Colchester, Maldon, Rochford, Southend, Tendring) 640,056
5/ Suffolk (the county of Suffolk and the district of Great Yarmouth) 595,908
6/ Norfolk (the county of Norfolk less the district of Great Yarmouth) 576,070
7/ Cambridgeshire (the county of Cambridgeshire (including Peterborough) plus the district of Uttlesford) 616,589
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edgbaston
Labour
Posts: 4,454
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Post by edgbaston on Apr 10, 2019 14:20:50 GMT
Yorkshire-
Sheffield-Rotherham - 573548 (MB Sheffield & MB Rotherham) - Labour 2014
Wakefield-Doncaster-Barnsley - 616281 (MB Wakefield, MB Doncaster & MB Barnsley) - UKIP 2014
South Pennines 636287 (MB Bradford, MB Calderdale, Huddersfield BC, Colne Valley CC, Denby Dale CP, Kirkburton CP) - Labour 2014
East Yorkshire-North Lincolnshire - 661995 (Humberside 1974 County) - UKIP 2014
Leeds-Heavy Woollen - 644069 (MB Leeds & rest of MB Kirklees) - Labour 2014
North Yorkshire - 589855 (North Yorkshire 1974 County) - Tory 2014
So Labour gains 1 seat from UKIP. But the margins are so close UKIP could've well won all the seats with localised targeting or some kind of pact with An Independence from Europe.
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,922
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Apr 10, 2019 17:29:27 GMT
Yorkshire- Sheffield-Rotherham - 573548 (MB Sheffield & MB Rotherham) - Labour 2014 Wakefield-Doncaster-Barnsley - 616281 (MB Wakefield, MB Doncaster & MB Barnsley) - UKIP 2014 South Pennines 636287 (MB Bradford, MB Calderdale, Huddersfield BC, Colne Valley CC, Denby Dale CP, Kirkburton CP) - Labour 2014 East Yorkshire-North Lincolnshire - 661995 (Humberside 1974 County) - UKIP 2014 Leeds-Heavy Woollen - 644069 (MB Leeds & rest of MB Kirklees) - Labour 2014 North Yorkshire - 589855 (North Yorkshire 1974 County) - Tory 2014 So Labour gains 1 seat from UKIP. But the margins are so close UKIP could've well won all the seats with localised targeting or some kind of pact with An Independence from Europe. You do remember that "An Independence from Europe" were breakaway UKIPers? |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 10, 2019 17:43:06 GMT
Yes - An Independence from Europe were hardly going to entertain a pact as they existed with the sole purpose of acting as a spoiler - a very effective one as well
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edgbaston
Labour
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Post by edgbaston on Apr 10, 2019 17:51:10 GMT
I have no idea who AIFE are but if they'd had a pact with UKIP, however unlikely that may have been, they may have collectively picked up all of my fictional seats. Which is interesting in of itself, or it was to me.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 10, 2019 17:57:09 GMT
I have no idea who AIFE are but if they'd had a pact with UKIP, however unlikely that may have been, they may have collectively picked up all of my fictional seats. Which is interesting in of itself, or it was to me. Well it's important to understand where the party came from then you would see that a pact was out of the question - the whole raison d'etre was to act as a spoiler en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Independence_from_Europe |
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piperdave
SNP
Dalkeith; Midlothian/North & Musselburgh
Posts: 911
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Post by piperdave on Apr 10, 2019 20:39:19 GMT
Scotland - 6 Euro constituencies
North of Scotland - 673,000 (Grampian, Highland and the island authorities)
Mid Scotland & Fife - 699,000 (Tayside, Fife, Stirling, Clacks)
South West Scotland - 678,000 (D&G, Ayrshire, Renfrewshires)
Lothian & Borders - 676,000 (Lothian and Borders minus Linlithgow)
Glasgow & North Clyde - 683,000 (Glasgow, Dunbartonshires, Argyll & Bute)
Central Scotland - 695,000 (Lanarkshires, Falkirk plus Linlithgow)
I tried to avoid splitting local authorities but the south east got messy. I either had to split Borders or West Lothian and moving Linlithgow was the best fit. Having done that, all the constituencies are within 2.5% of the quota.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Apr 10, 2019 21:17:56 GMT
Nice idea, but did doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ help with the names? Heart of Wales and Swansea?? Has a very Mediaeval ring to it. I rather like it. |
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edgbaston
Labour
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Post by edgbaston on Apr 11, 2019 0:15:09 GMT
I have no idea who AIFE are but if they'd had a pact with UKIP, however unlikely that may have been, they may have collectively picked up all of my fictional seats. Which is interesting in of itself, or it was to me. Well it's important to understand where the party came from then you would see that a pact was out of the question - the whole raison d'etre was to act as a spoiler en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Independence_from_Europe Which 2 seats other than the South West |
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Post by greenchristian on Apr 11, 2019 2:53:57 GMT
Yorkshire- Sheffield-Rotherham - 573548 (MB Sheffield & MB Rotherham) - Labour 2014 Wakefield-Doncaster-Barnsley - 616281 (MB Wakefield, MB Doncaster & MB Barnsley) - UKIP 2014 South Pennines 636287 (MB Bradford, MB Calderdale, Huddersfield BC, Colne Valley CC, Denby Dale CP, Kirkburton CP) - Labour 2014 East Yorkshire-North Lincolnshire - 661995 (Humberside 1974 County) - UKIP 2014 Leeds-Heavy Woollen - 644069 (MB Leeds & rest of MB Kirklees) - Labour 2014 North Yorkshire - 589855 (North Yorkshire 1974 County) - Tory 2014 So Labour gains 1 seat from UKIP. But the margins are so close UKIP could've well won all the seats with localised targeting or some kind of pact with An Independence from Europe. If the European Elections had stayed as FPTP constituencies then UKIP would not have won seats in 1999. Which means that Farage would not have had the opportunity to become a media personality. Which means that UKIP would have remained a minor party with very little public recognition and no impact at all on national politics, and the odds of them even challenging for a European seat in 2014 would be close to zero. |
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Post by finsobruce on Apr 11, 2019 6:42:27 GMT
Yorkshire- Sheffield-Rotherham - 573548 (MB Sheffield & MB Rotherham) - Labour 2014 Wakefield-Doncaster-Barnsley - 616281 (MB Wakefield, MB Doncaster & MB Barnsley) - UKIP 2014 South Pennines 636287 (MB Bradford, MB Calderdale, Huddersfield BC, Colne Valley CC, Denby Dale CP, Kirkburton CP) - Labour 2014 East Yorkshire-North Lincolnshire - 661995 (Humberside 1974 County) - UKIP 2014 Leeds-Heavy Woollen - 644069 (MB Leeds & rest of MB Kirklees) - Labour 2014 North Yorkshire - 589855 (North Yorkshire 1974 County) - Tory 2014 So Labour gains 1 seat from UKIP. But the margins are so close UKIP could've well won all the seats with localised targeting or some kind of pact with An Independence from Europe. If the European Elections had stayed as FPTP constituencies then UKIP would not have won seats in 1999. Which means that Farage would not have had the opportunity to become a media personality. Which means that UKIP would have remained a minor party with very little public recognition and no impact at all on national politics, and the odds of them even challenging for a European seat in 2014 would be close to zero. You may be right GC, but I am reminded that people have over the years said that Farage and UKIP were a failure because they hadn't won a parliamentary seat. They seemed to manage ok without. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 11, 2019 7:21:03 GMT
Which 2 seats other than the South West London was the second region where almost certainly AIEU cost UKIP a seat to the benefit of the Green party. I'm not sure what the third region suggested is |
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Post by finsobruce on Apr 11, 2019 7:48:34 GMT
Which 2 seats other than the South West London was the second region where almost certainly AIEU cost UKIP a seat to the benefit of the Green party. I'm not sure what the third region suggested is I'd forgotten about this (rather important) footnote in Euro election history.
Nice to be reminded of the Octopus. |
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Post by londonseal80 on Apr 11, 2019 8:56:18 GMT
Boundaries that will never happen?
Infinite Answers Question??
Chipping Barnet and Epsom
Uxbridge and Upminster
Greenwich and East Surrey
Bournemouth and East Somerset
Orkney, Shetland and Isle of Wight
Thanet North and Grimsby
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Post by finsobruce on Apr 11, 2019 9:01:13 GMT
Boundaries that will never happen? Infinite Answers Question?? Chipping Barnet and Epsom Uxbridge and Upminster Greenwich and East Surrey Bournemouth and East Somerset Orkney, Shetland and Isle of Wight Thanet North and Grimsby South and North Hampton Waterford and Poole Hull, Hell and Halifax
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 11, 2019 9:19:17 GMT
London is difficult to do using whole boroughs in a way which would be coherent, so this uses the groups of parliamentary constituencies method which was used in practice before 1999  |
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Post by londonseal80 on Apr 11, 2019 10:15:44 GMT
Boundaries that will never happen? Infinite Answers Question?? Chipping Barnet and Epsom Uxbridge and Upminster Greenwich and East Surrey Bournemouth and East Somerset Orkney, Shetland and Isle of Wight Thanet North and Grimsby South and North Hampton Waterford and Poole Hull, Hell and Halifax
Sutton Coldfield and Cheam, Wimbledon and Milton Keynes, Heathrow and Gatwick, Islington North and Woolwich Arsenal, Cheltenham and Aintree |
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Post by lennon on Apr 11, 2019 10:41:38 GMT
South and North Hampton Waterford and Poole Hull, Hell and Halifax
Sutton Coldfield and Cheam, Wimbledon and Milton Keynes, Heathrow and Gatwick, Islington North and Woolwich Arsenal, Cheltenham and Aintree St James's Parks (Newcastle Central & Exeter) |
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