Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
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Post by Tony Otim on May 8, 2019 14:58:33 GMT
Does it have a hill in it? |
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Post by Antiochian on May 8, 2019 15:00:12 GMT
Poor old Batman (the founder of Melbourne) got the chop recently after having been around since 1906 (and had been Bob Hawke's seat).
I was theoretically still registered there for decades and got fines (always annulled) despite the Electoral Office having been advised loads of times that I'd departed in 1986.... Talk about stubborn..
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 8, 2019 15:07:52 GMT
Poor old Batman (the founder of Melbourne) got the chop recently after having been around since 1906 (and had been Bob Hawke's seat). I was theoretically still registered there for decades and got fines (always annulled) despite the Electoral Office having been advised loads of times that I'd departed in 1986.... Talk about stubborn.. Robin' bastards.. |
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Post by timrollpickering on May 8, 2019 15:20:37 GMT
Poor old Batman (the founder of Melbourne) got the chop recently after having been around since 1906 (and had been Bob Hawke's seat). Hawke represented Wills, which is to the immediate east. (Both are very similar, with the Greens breathing down Labor's neck and holding the state seat covering the south of the division but struggling to make an impact north of Bell Street.) John Batman is now a controversial historical figure, hence dropping him from the electorate. |
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Post by finsobruce on May 8, 2019 15:30:52 GMT
Does it have a hill in it? A half baked theory. |
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Post by Andrew_S on May 8, 2019 18:17:35 GMT
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
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Post by Foggy on May 8, 2019 18:47:28 GMT
Melbourne residents would also say that Neighbours is filmed in Melbourne. The Melbourne City Council area is tiny, and doesn't even cover all of the innermost suburbs - eg Fitzroy and Collingwood, right on the edge of the CBD, are in the Yarra City Council area but no one would call them anything other than Melbourne. Collingwood is definitely separate from Melbourne for the purposes of Aussie rules football!  Some of the electorate names have become quite ironic, such as Curtin (a safe Liberal seat which has never voted Labor in its existence) On a similar note, the Alberta provincial seat of Central Peace—Notley (partly named after Rachel's father) only just went NDP on a perfect 3-way split during their 2015 surge, and is otherwise safely Conservative. |
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Post by timrollpickering on May 9, 2019 14:01:46 GMT
The Liberals and Nationals are going head to head in the following 12 seats so far: Couple of updates. The Nationals didn't nominate for Forrest in the end. More bizarrely in Lyons the Liberals have dumped their candidate for posts on social media, though she remains on the ballot paper with Liberal next to her name, and the Liberals have got behind the Nationals' Deanna Hutchinson. This is an extraordinary turnaround for a party that didn't even exist in Tasmania a year ago. (Following our conversation elsewhere about seat names, Lyons is a partial exception to the habit that seats named for politicians are rarely where they reresented. Under the old name of Wilmot, Joseph Lyons represented the seat - basically the "all the bits left over" in the centre of Tasmania - in the state parliament for 20 years and then the federal parliament for 10. However the name jointly honours his wife Enid, who represented the Darwin division, now Braddon. She was the first women elected to the House and the first to sit in cabinet.) |
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Post by Andrew_S on May 10, 2019 22:20:21 GMT
The Coalition has led in precisely two opinion polls since the last federal election so it's kind of interesting they're still in with a small chance on 18th May.
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Post by finsobruce on May 13, 2019 8:40:16 GMT
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timmullen1
Labour
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Post by timmullen1 on May 13, 2019 8:45:39 GMT
If you follow #auspol or #ausvotes on Twitter on Election Day you will assuredly find people who claim to have voted for person solely on the quality of their Party’s sausage outside the polling station. |
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Post by finsobruce on May 13, 2019 8:55:25 GMT
If you follow #auspol or #ausvotes on Twitter on Election Day you will assuredly find people who claim to have voted for person solely on the quality of their Party’s sausage outside the polling station. Vote Chipolata party!
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Post by Andrew_S on May 14, 2019 21:59:34 GMT
It's getting slightly closer in Australia according to the PollBludger seats forecast. Their latest numbers are Lab 79, Others 72 (with the Coalition on 66) which would mean Lab only having 4 seats to play with. www.pollbludger.net/bludgertrack2019/ |
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on May 14, 2019 22:25:13 GMT
It's getting slightly closer in Australia according to the PollBludger seats forecast. Their latest numbers are Lab 79, Others 72 (with the Coalition on 66) which would mean Lab only having 4 seats to play with. www.pollbludger.net/bludgertrack2019/I’m not sure by reading his covering notes it’s actually getting closer just that the polls are not sustaining some of the wilder media hype. Basically the numbers in Queensland alone are almost enough to get Labor over the line, but they’re also predicted to gain 3-4 in Victoria, and a seat poll in Bass at the weekend had them holding the only marginal in Tasmania. The polling in NSW and SA suggest no changes (although the ALP lose one as the State has lost an electorate but that’s been counterbalanced by the creation of a new electorate in east Melbourne which is expected to be solid ALP). A clue is also in the Leader’s itineraries; Morrison is basically only visiting Liberal held seats whilst Shorten is also in Liberal seats that are on the ALP pick up list, suggesting the internal polling is allowing Shorten to play offence but Morrison’s on defence. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 16, 2019 16:15:22 GMT
It's getting slightly closer in Australia according to the PollBludger seats forecast. Their latest numbers are Lab 79, Others 72 (with the Coalition on 66) which would mean Lab only having 4 seats to play with. www.pollbludger.net/bludgertrack2019/I’m not sure by reading his covering notes it’s actually getting closer just that the polls are not sustaining some of the wilder media hype. Basically the numbers in Queensland alone are almost enough to get Labor over the line, but they’re also predicted to gain 3-4 in Victoria, and a seat poll in Bass at the weekend had them holding the only marginal in Tasmania. The polling in NSW and SA suggest no changes (although the ALP lose one as the State has lost an electorate but that’s been counterbalanced by the creation of a new electorate in east Melbourne which is expected to be solid ALP). A clue is also in the Leader’s itineraries; Morrison is basically only visiting Liberal held seats whilst Shorten is also in Liberal seats that are on the ALP pick up list, suggesting the internal polling is allowing Shorten to play offence but Morrison’s on defence. Braddon (west and NW coast) is the marginal in Tasmania and is generally agreed to be at risk. Bass looks safe for ALP and should especially be in the context of this election, but it's quite "swingy" and ALP benefited from a lot of action last time to kick out the very right wing incumbent, which is not being replicated this time, so likely to be closer. Otherwise broadly agree. Coalition has a path to victory but its a narrow one and almost certainly relies on them gaining Bass/Braddon in Tas, Lindsay in NSW, Herbert in QLD and the Lib incumbent "regaining" the now notionally ALP seat of Corangamite in Vic to hold off the absolute minimum losses they can expect elsewhere. Solomon (Darwin) is also being talked about a bit. But o/c the polls could be well out, and a herding effect similar to what we saw here in 2015 has been noted... |
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Post by Andrew_S on May 16, 2019 16:34:59 GMT
The fact that Labor aren't a shoe-in against a leader as wooden as Scott Morrison is a bit of a worry for Labor in my opinion.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on May 16, 2019 16:38:33 GMT
I’m not sure by reading his covering notes it’s actually getting closer just that the polls are not sustaining some of the wilder media hype. Basically the numbers in Queensland alone are almost enough to get Labor over the line, but they’re also predicted to gain 3-4 in Victoria, and a seat poll in Bass at the weekend had them holding the only marginal in Tasmania. The polling in NSW and SA suggest no changes (although the ALP lose one as the State has lost an electorate but that’s been counterbalanced by the creation of a new electorate in east Melbourne which is expected to be solid ALP). A clue is also in the Leader’s itineraries; Morrison is basically only visiting Liberal held seats whilst Shorten is also in Liberal seats that are on the ALP pick up list, suggesting the internal polling is allowing Shorten to play offence but Morrison’s on defence. Braddon (west and NW coast) is the marginal in Tasmania and is generally agreed to be at risk. Bass looks safe for ALP and should especially be in the context of this election, but it's quite "swingy" and ALP benefited from a lot of action last time to kick out the very right wing incumbent, which is not being replicated this time, so likely to be closer. Otherwise broadly agree. Coalition has a path to victory but its a narrow one and almost certainly relies on them gaining Bass/Braddon in Tas, Lindsay in NSW, Herbert in QLD and the Lib incumbent "regaining" the now notionally ALP seat of Corangamite in Vic to hold off the absolute minimum losses they can expect elsewhere. Solomon (Darwin) is also being talked about a bit. But o/c the polls could be well out, and a herding effect similar to what we saw here in 2015 has been noted... Is herding possible with effectively only three pollsters, one of whom, Roy Morgan, has so far only published one poll? Ipsos are also slightly out of sync on first preferences, underscoring Labor but overscoring the Greens so that their 2PP is broadly in line with YouGov (Newspoll and Galaxy) and Essential. |
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on May 16, 2019 16:43:13 GMT
The fact that Labor aren't a shoe-in against a leader as wooden as Scott Morrison is a bit of a worry for Labor in my opinion. <iframe width="21.800000000000068" height="3.0600000000000023" style="position: absolute; width: 21.800000000000068px; height: 3.0600000000000023px; z-index: -9999; border-style: none;left: 15px; top: -5px;" id="MoatPxIOPT0_4421624" scrolling="no"></iframe> <iframe width="21.800000000000068" height="3.0600000000000023" style="position: absolute; width: 21.8px; height: 3.06px; z-index: -9999; border-style: none; left: 1032px; top: -5px;" id="MoatPxIOPT0_40689054" scrolling="no"></iframe> <iframe width="21.800000000000068" height="3.0600000000000023" style="position: absolute; width: 21.8px; height: 3.06px; z-index: -9999; border-style: none; left: 15px; top: 94px;" id="MoatPxIOPT0_20369676" scrolling="no"></iframe> <iframe width="21.800000000000068" height="3.0600000000000023" style="position: absolute; width: 21.8px; height: 3.06px; z-index: -9999; border-style: none; left: 1032px; top: 94px;" id="MoatPxIOPT0_4369847" scrolling="no"></iframe> I think you mean a "shoo-in" but regardless of that, the statement could be flipped. The fact that the Coalition isn't favoured against an ALP leader as uninspiring as Bill Shorten should be a worry for the LNP. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on May 16, 2019 16:47:54 GMT
Morrison is a Cronulla fan, and therefore a good man.
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Post by Andrew_S on May 16, 2019 16:49:18 GMT
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