|
|
Post by Andrew_S on Apr 26, 2019 16:04:09 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by pragmaticidealist on Apr 26, 2019 17:37:35 GMT
Roy Morgan tends to be bottom-of-the-barrel as far as Australian pollsters go. |
|
|
|
Post by Andrew_S on Apr 28, 2019 13:01:13 GMT
"Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor Newspoll’s debut reading for Clive Palmer’s party in a national poll is 5%, as the Coalition claws back a point on two-party preferred." www.pollbludger.net |
|
timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823 
|
Post by timmullen1 on Apr 30, 2019 3:14:41 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by finsobruce on Apr 30, 2019 5:01:10 GMT
Some great quotes in there including:
"Despite being on a self-funded trip with a person who I never imagined to be an undercover journalist funded by the Qatar Government"
Could happen to anyone! But it happened to him.
|
|
|
|
Post by Andrew_S on May 2, 2019 0:10:54 GMT
|
|
timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
|
Post by timmullen1 on May 2, 2019 0:29:58 GMT
Maybe worth noting that William Bowe (pollbludger.net) reckons it’s 52-48 when you eliminate rounding. He’s also dubious at the way pollsters are guessing How preferences for Clive Palmer’s UAP will flow at 60-40 Coalition when, the last time Palmer United Party stood they only flowed 55-35 Coalition with 10% exhausted. |
|
|
|
Post by Andrew_S on May 2, 2019 0:34:53 GMT
Maybe worth noting that William Bowe (pollbludger.net) reckons it’s 52-48 when you eliminate rounding. He’s also dubious at the way pollsters are guessing How preferences for Clive Palmer’s UAP will flow at 60-40 Coalition when, the last time Palmer United Party stood they only flowed 55-35 Coalition with 10% exhausted. Interesting. If I had to guess the final 2PP result at the moment I'd probably go for Labor 51.5%, Coalition 48.5%. |
|
timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
|
Post by timmullen1 on May 2, 2019 0:55:27 GMT
Maybe worth noting that William Bowe (pollbludger.net) reckons it’s 52-48 when you eliminate rounding. He’s also dubious at the way pollsters are guessing How preferences for Clive Palmer’s UAP will flow at 60-40 Coalition when, the last time Palmer United Party stood they only flowed 55-35 Coalition with 10% exhausted. Interesting. If I had to guess the final 2PP result at the moment I'd probably go for Labor 51.5%, Coalition 48.5%. Yeah, I’m at 52-48, however what Antony Green has been pointing out on State election coverage, but doesn’t seem to have blogged about on this election yet, is Australia is, like Great Britain (deliberately excluding Northern Ireland), seems to be moving away from a uniform national swing, and Labor seem to be stronger in the marginal heavy States of Victoria and Queensland. According to Bowe Labor are privately briefing that they’re still 4-5% clear in internal seat polling in some of their key targets and there’s been no discernible movement since the initial Morrison bounce. |
|
|
|
Post by Andrew_S on May 2, 2019 0:57:51 GMT
Most Australian elections I've watched have ended up being closer than most people originally expected which is why I'm going for that relatively narrow margin.
|
|
timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
|
Post by timmullen1 on May 2, 2019 11:52:19 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by Andrew_S on May 7, 2019 18:18:09 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by timrollpickering on May 7, 2019 21:45:55 GMT
David Smith has resigned from the Senate (ACT, Labor) and is hoping to become Mr Bean.
|
|
|
|
Post by pepperminttea on May 7, 2019 22:26:18 GMT
I hate the way Australia names its electoral districts. Every time I see a poorly named ward/constituency in this country I just think of Australia! |
|
timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
|
Post by timmullen1 on May 7, 2019 22:48:24 GMT
I hate the way Australia names its electoral districts. Every time I see a poorly name ward/constituency in this country I just think of Australia! I don’t so much mind the names, and heaven forfend we should follow the American system of just having numbered Districts, but I do wish they wouldn’t keep dropping names because said person has fallen out of favour. |
|
|
|
Post by pepperminttea on May 7, 2019 23:22:05 GMT
I hate the way Australia names its electoral districts. Every time I see a poorly name ward/constituency in this country I just think of Australia! I don’t so much mind the names, and heaven forfend we should follow the American system of just having numbered Districts, but I do wish they wouldn’t keep dropping names because said person has fallen out of favour. For me the primary function of the name of an electoral district should be to describe where it is as succinctly as possible. Naming them after people makes absolutely no sense at all. Imagine what it would look like in this country and how ridiculous it would sound: Grantham and Stamford would be Thatcher, Stratford-on-Avon would be Shakespeare, Poplar and Limehouse would be Attlee, Bradford West would be Brontë... I do agree with you on the American naming system although to be fair they cover such vast areas (plus the often illogical borders caused by gerrymandering) make an accurate but succinct name difficult in many cases. Maybe they should go for the state followed by a brief descriptor instead of a number e.g. for Nebraska: 1st: Nebraska - Lincoln and East, 2nd: Nebraska - Omaha, 3rd: Nebraska - Rural West (or something like that). I like Canada's naming system except for the fact they have an annoying habit of making them stupidly long. |
|
timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
|
Post by timmullen1 on May 7, 2019 23:38:34 GMT
I don’t so much mind the names, and heaven forfend we should follow the American system of just having numbered Districts, but I do wish they wouldn’t keep dropping names because said person has fallen out of favour. For me the primary function of the name of an electoral district should be to describe where it is as succinctly as possible. Naming them after people makes absolutely no sense at all. Imagine what it would look like in this country and how ridiculous it would sound: Grantham and Stamford would be Thatcher, Stratford-on-Avon would be Shakespeare, Poplar and Limehouse would be Attlee, Bradford West would be Brontë... I could actually live with Stratford being Shakespeare, especially as you can flip it around and look, for example, West Bromwich West, which doesn’t touch the town itself. I remember during the pre-92 by-election Vincent Hanna being totally unable to find any consensus on the pronounciation or the meaning or origin of Langbaurgh. And the Scottish boundary commission do seem to have taken inspiration from their Canadian colleagues with things like Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey. As for Australia, just a quick glance and most of them do seem to be geographically named, and the electorates named after people are either largely rural or in areas with no obvious place name; our new ACT seat is an example as I suspect most people not living in the Territory have heard of the population centres that comprise the electorate. |
|
|
|
Post by Adam in Stroud on May 7, 2019 23:53:58 GMT
I hate the way Australia names its electoral districts. Every time I see a poorly name ward/constituency in this country I just think of Australia! I don’t so much mind the names, and heaven forfend we should follow the American system of just having numbered Districts, but I do wish they wouldn’t keep dropping names because said person has fallen out of favour. Scope for another thread on bad ward names: Most Embarrassing Former Hero for a ward to be named after: Oxford: Rhodes Bristol: Colston Shropshire: Robert Clive |
|
|
|
Post by timrollpickering on May 8, 2019 0:04:25 GMT
Australia started with seats named for places but has slowly named them in honour of various Australians, often with little regard for the connections - e.g. both Whitlam and Fraser did not represent the areas now covered by the divisions named after them. It sees as though seat names are assigned on the basis of what's available and who needs to be honoured. When Bob Hawke passes away the next Victorian redistribution will pick whatever seat is to hand - either a new one if the national distribution supplies an extra (like Fraser) or else demote someone else (Whitlam was previously Throsby).
One complication is a requirement to preserve original Federation electorate names wherever possible, which is probably why Werriwa was left with that name (even though it hasn't contained Werriwa since 1913).
|
|
|
|
Post by Andrew_S on May 8, 2019 3:42:47 GMT
Australia started with seats named for places but has slowly named them in honour of various Australians, often with little regard for the connections - e.g. both Whitlam and Fraser did not represent the areas now covered by the divisions named after them. It sees as though seat names are assigned on the basis of what's available and who needs to be honoured. When Bob Hawke passes away the next Victorian redistribution will pick whatever seat is to hand - either a new one if the national distribution supplies an extra (like Fraser) or else demote someone else (Whitlam was previously Throsby). One complication is a requirement to preserve original Federation electorate names wherever possible, which is probably why Werriwa was left with that name (even though it hasn't contained Werriwa since 1913). An interesting project would be to have a go at naming all the Australian divisions as if they were being named by the Boundary Commission for England. (I deliberately don't say Scotland because theirs are often too long as noted above). There'd be a lot more compass points being used: I'm not sure any are used in Australia at present. North Sydney doesn't count because that's an actual place rather than a compass point, like West Bromwich. Do they have counties in Australia? I've never wondered about that before. |
|
