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Post by Antiochian on Apr 11, 2019 19:22:03 GMT
The Centrist Alliance fka the Xenophon Team has tried, though. Although Xenephon himself left the party when it became the Centrist Alliance.
Against both Pokies and Wind farms.
Oh, what the Luddites are reduced to these days..  |
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Post by Antiochian on Apr 11, 2019 19:26:29 GMT
The graphs on this page must be a bit worrying for Labor. www.pollbludger.net/bludgertrack2019/leaders.htm?Net satisfaction: Scott Morrison -2.1% Bill Shorten -17.8% Preferred PM: Morrison +9.2% Shorten -9.2% Why does Bill Shorten have these poor ratings? House prices are crashing and its blamed (incorrectly) upon the ALPs talk about measures unfavorable to negative gearing, one of the (many) props of the bubble.. But as usual, property price bubble collapse causes are misascribed... It's affordability, stupid.... |
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Apr 11, 2019 20:09:20 GMT
The graphs on this page must be a bit worrying for Labor. www.pollbludger.net/bludgertrack2019/leaders.htm?Net satisfaction: Scott Morrison -2.1% Bill Shorten -17.8% Preferred PM: Morrison +9.2% Shorten -9.2% Why does Bill Shorten have these poor ratings? Not really, it's the usual result for an Opposition leader in Australia (unless they are a former Prime Minister). |
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Apr 11, 2019 20:37:45 GMT
If you use Newspoll as the benchmark their last 2016 poll had the Coalition ahead of Labor by 1%, the final 2PP was 0.7%, despite Turnbull leading Shorten by 17% as Preferred PM, so it’s not necessarily the best benchmark for basing the final outcome on.
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Apr 14, 2019 7:20:49 GMT
The 2019 version of this is out. votecompass.abc.net.auI literally got exactly where the Coalition is on the compass, I had to screenshot it 😂, which is fine by me as I'm much more in tune with the Coalition than I am with my own party tbh. |
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Apr 14, 2019 18:21:07 GMT
The 2019 version of this is out. votecompass.abc.net.auI literally got exactly where the Coalition is on the compass, I had to screenshot it 😂, which is fine by me as I'm much more in tune with the Coalition than I am with my own party tbh. I come almost exactly halfway between ALP and the Greens but percentage wise much higher for the Greens than Labour. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 14, 2019 19:14:49 GMT
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Apr 14, 2019 19:22:57 GMT
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Post by timrollpickering on Apr 15, 2019 23:05:01 GMT
The New South Wales state Legislative Council count just concluded suggests that the right could have problems in the Senate election. Voters for the left-wing parties showed a stronger rate of transfers between them than the right, with the result that the final seat was won by the leftish Animal Justice rather than the rightish Christian Democrats due to higher exhaustion rates.
The ballot paper instructions are a bit different so the Senate may see more preferenceing over all but this suggests Labor and the Greens will have an advantage on the Coalition, One Nation and assorted minor parties in competition for the final seats in states.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Apr 16, 2019 20:41:17 GMT
58% Labour
53% Coalition
49% One Nation
47% Green
On the graph i am ‘mid-way’ between the ALP and Coalition, aligning with the ALP economically and the Coalition socially. I wasn’t 100% sure on the status quo for some of the questions so I may have answered some incorrectly 😂😂
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iain
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Post by iain on Apr 16, 2019 22:42:05 GMT
So it looks like Labor are going for gains in Western Australia and (especially) Victoria, while the Coalition are hoping for a good showing in New South Wales. Queensland will be key as usual, but after the wacky, patternless swings of 3 years ago, consensus seems to be that the numbers will remain pretty similar to how they are now.
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iain
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Post by iain on Apr 21, 2019 19:07:47 GMT
The Coalition are looking for gains in:
Wentworth - covers a wealthy area of Sydney, including Bondi, it’s currently held by an Independent, Dr Kerryn Phelps, after a very narrow win in the by-election following Malcolm Turnbull’s resignation. Liberal candidate Dave Sharma has been a prolific fundraiser since his loss, and Liberals believe the context of a GE will return the seat to them.
Lindsay - in the far western suburbs of Sydney, this marginal is held by controversial Labor MP Emma Husar. She is not restanding, claiming the party ‘slut shamed’ her out of the seat, but the Liberals believe they can profit from the scandal, and their relatively good position in NSW.
Dobell - a coastal seat in NSW, including Gosford suburbs, this is a traditional marginal. The Liberals performed well in this area in the state election and have earmarked it as a top target in what looks likely to be their best performance (swing-wise) in any state.
Indi - a rural Victoria seat based around Wodonga and Wangaratta, currently held by and Independent, Cathy McGowan. McGowan is standing down, but her movement has nominated Dr Helen Haines to replace her. Both Liberals and Nationals are running, and a Liberal gain looks the most likely outcome.
Dunkley - the far south east of Melbourne, this electorate has been redistributed to become notionally Labor. Chris Crewther will hope his incumbency can see him hang on, but given the expectation of a big Labor performance in Victoria, it looks like it might be a long shot.
Cowan - numerically the second Liberal target nationally, this northern Perth suburbs seat is probably a longer shot than it looks. Despite the Liberals’ focus on it, Labor are said to be confident that Anne Aly will hold on, as they continue to capitalise on the unpopularity of the WA government voted out in 2017.
Solomon - taking in Darwin and Palmerston, this division takes in around half the people of NT, but only 0.01% of the land. Labor took this on a big swing last time, but with the chronically unpopular Adam Giles government now out of office for 3 years, the Country Liberal Party believes they may have a shot at taking this back if things remain tight nationally.
Bass - in north east Tasmania, based on Launceston, this swingy electorate has changed hands at 7 of the last 9 elections. The Liberals did poorly in Tasmania in 2016, and believe any swing back could be strongest here, with its large number of changeable voters. Labor start with a pretty reasonable lead, though, and with national polls currently in their favour, they will begin as favourites.
Braddon - a long strip down the west of Tasmania, the electorate is a mix of agricultural and mining districts. It’s traditionally the safest Liberal seat in Tasmania, and is the one they are numerically closest to gaining, but they failed to make any ground in the 2018 by-election. The Liberals seem to have gone quiet after the by-elections in Mayo and Longman, so the fact they’re still talking up this seat is slightly surprising.
Herbert - taking in the vast bulk of the city of Townsville, Herbert is the most marginal seat in the country. As different seats in Queensland swing different ways with no discernible pattern, Labor gained the seat in a surprise (the Liberals even hung on in the 2007 Rudd landslide, which especially affected Queensland). Labor’s Cathy O’Toole appears to be a solid campaigner, but Liberals think Phillip Thompson is a very good recruit, and that the floods earlier this year will play in their favour (not sure why).
Longman - containing the south of the Sunshine Coast, and some areas between there and Brisbane, Longman saw the largest swing in Queensland at the last election. Like Herbert, it was another narrow, surprising gain for Labor. A by-election in 2018 after the nationality crisis saw a further swing to Labor, and the Coalition don’t seem to have been touting this as much as the other seats in this list.
If the Coalition gains any seats outside of these it will be a surprise. Somewhere in NSW would probably be the next prospect - maybe Eden Monaro or Kingsford Smith.
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Apr 21, 2019 19:27:38 GMT
The Coalition are looking for gains in: If the Coalition gains any seats outside of these it will be a surprise. Somewhere in NSW would probably be the next prospect - maybe Eden Monaro or Kingsford Smith. Aren't most of these just bravado from the L/NP? I realise they go into the election notionally in a minority situation, but for a sitting government to gain 10+ seats after 6 years in power and two changes of leader in that time would be extraordinary. |
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Post by timrollpickering on Apr 21, 2019 19:46:45 GMT
The Coalition are looking for gains in: Wentworth - covers a wealthy area of Sydney, including Bondi, it’s currently held by an Independent, Dr Kerryn Phelps, after a very narrow win in the by-election following Malcolm Turnbull’s resignation. Liberal candidate Dave Sharma has been a prolific fundraiser since his loss, and Liberals believe the context of a GE will return the seat to them. There have been two previous modern era cases of independents gaining seats in by-elections - Phil Cleary in Wills in 1992 after Bob Hawke stood down and Rob Oakeshott in Lyne in 2008 after Mark Vaile (the last National leader and Deputy PM in the Howard government) stood down. In both cases they retained the seat at the next general election. Cleary was defeated in 1996, in part due to a redistribution weakening his personal vote, whilst Rob Oakeshott stood down in 2013 (though would likely have struggled anyway given his support for the Labor government). Phelps may not be going anytime soon (and the geography means the boundaries probably won't be a problem). No independent has been elected to succeed another independent in the House of Representatives. Some had success in the state parliaments, though I can't find a modern example in Victoria. The Liberals and Nationals went head to head last time and IIRC there was no love lost between the Nationals and Sophie Mirabella, with rumours the local party had helped McGowan in 2013. Be interesting to see how bitter the battle is with Mirabella off the scene. For what it's worth the Liberals took 58.8% of the vote here in the last state election (using the same boundaries), though they were also the leading party in 2014 so this may not amount to much. |
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Apr 21, 2019 20:04:55 GMT
iain Indi only had a 2pp of 54:46 in Liberals favour in 2016. The national polls + expected Labour overpeformance in Victoria would see Indi as a 2 party marginal and an independent in McGowan’s mold would presumably have more crossover so I would have the Liberals as underdogs here.
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Post by timrollpickering on Apr 21, 2019 20:19:06 GMT
2PPs can be a little complicated when there's an Independent in the field (and also when both Coalition parties stand). What order were the three parties on the ballot paper and on McGowan's How To Vote?
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seanf
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Post by seanf on Apr 21, 2019 20:36:58 GMT
The Coalition are looking for gains in: Wentworth - covers a wealthy area of Sydney, including Bondi, it’s currently held by an Independent, Dr Kerryn Phelps, after a very narrow win in the by-election following Malcolm Turnbull’s resignation. Liberal candidate Dave Sharma has been a prolific fundraiser since his loss, and Liberals believe the context of a GE will return the seat to them. There have been two previous modern era cases of independents gaining seats in by-elections - Phil Cleary in Wills in 1992 after Bob Hawke stood down and Rob Oakeshott in Lyne in 2008 after Mark Vaile (the last National leader and Deputy PM in the Howard government) stood down. In both cases they retained the seat at the next general election. Cleary was defeated in 1996, in part due to a redistribution weakening his personal vote, whilst Rob Oakeshott stood down in 2013 (though would likely have struggled anyway given his support for the Labor government). Phelps may not be going anytime soon (and the geography means the boundaries probably won't be a problem). No independent has been elected to succeed another independent in the House of Representatives. Some had success in the state parliaments, though I can't find a modern example in Victoria. The Liberals and Nationals went head to head last time and IIRC there was no love lost between the Nationals and Sophie Mirabella, with rumours the local party had helped McGowan in 2013. Be interesting to see how bitter the battle is with Mirabella off the scene. For what it's worth the Liberals took 58.8% of the vote here in the last state election (using the same boundaries), though they were also the leading party in 2014 so this may not amount to much. I'd forgotten all about the lovely Sophie. |
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iain
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Post by iain on Apr 21, 2019 20:57:50 GMT
The Coalition are looking for gains in: If the Coalition gains any seats outside of these it will be a surprise. Somewhere in NSW would probably be the next prospect - maybe Eden Monaro or Kingsford Smith. Aren't most of these just bravado from the L/NP? I realise they go into the election notionally in a minority situation, but for a sitting government to gain 10+ seats after 6 years in power and two changes of leader in that time would be extraordinary. It would be a surprise for them to gain all 10 undoubtedly, but they could easily gain a small number of seats even as they go backwards nationally. Even in Labor’s 2007 landslide the coalition gained 3 seats (including 2 from Labor). Australian swings often vary fairly significantly from state to state. The Coalition seem fairly sure that they will see no net loss in NSW this time for example. They appear to be increasingly confident in both Wentworth and Lindsay, and only really fear losses in Gilmore and Warringah (Tony Abbott’s seat), while being confident of holding Labor off in marginal Sydney divisions. There’s still lots of time for things to change, but I currently think the Coalition will win at least one of Wentworth and Indi, likely both, and are even stevens in Lindsay and possibly Herbert (though I’d start Labor as narrow favourites in the latter). |
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Post by mrpastelito on Apr 21, 2019 21:09:13 GMT
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Post by timrollpickering on Apr 23, 2019 0:19:27 GMT
The Liberals and Nationals are going head to head in the following 12 seats so far:
NSW
Eden-Monaro
Gilmore
Labor and Liberal marginals respectively. Gilmore looks more interesting, with the Liberals having a contentious retirement, a chaotic selection, a leader's pick candidate and the winner of the local selection running as an independent. Throw in a former state National member & minister and watch the sparks fly.
Victoria
Indi
Mallee
Indi's independent held with the sitting member retiring and a history of bad blood between the two Coalition parties, as discussed elsewhere on the thread. Mallee has been Country/National held since creation in 1949 but the sitting member has stepped down after revelations of his use of sugar daddy dating websites.
Western Australia
Durack
Forrest
O'Connor
Pearce
i.e. all the non-metropolitan parts of the state (though Pearce is increasingly dominated by north Perth suburbs at the sourthern fringe of the seat). All four seats have been won by the Liberals at practically every election since each was created bar Forrest going Labor in 1969 (the sitting member alienated the DLP and transfers leaked) and O'Connor was won by the Nationals in 2010. The WA Nats are much more independent than their eastern counterparts but this can create tensions in federal elections over just where they will sit.
South Australia
Barker
The rural south east of the state, the Nationals have stood sporadically over the years but haven't got more than 12% in their current incarnation. The SA Nats have, if anything, been even more independent than the WA party, but have never had much success.
Tasmania
Bass
Braddon
Lyons
The three more rural seats. The Nationals have a very sporadic history in Tasmania, twice securing the balance of power in the state parliament and forming coalition governments, only to collapse and not contest the next election. Their latest incarnation is driven by Steve Martin, who was elected in a recount to replace Jacqui Lambie when she was found ineligible to sit but Matin declined to resign and allow Lambie back once she had sorted out her dual citizenship. Martin then joined the Nationals and the party has reformed in the state. I assume these candidatures are really trying to drive up the Senate vote for Martin.
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