hengo
Conservative
Posts: 1,689
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Post by hengo on Aug 6, 2020 21:10:28 GMT
One thing it’s hard to attack the government record on is jobs. Pre Covid that is. For a period at least people will I think recognise the inevitability of job losses. Where it would become a political problem is if things don’t pick up over two or three years as we get closer to the election. The only effective criticism really on this is from those who have argued against the lockdown altogether, and those are pretty much confined to the Conservative Party. So any attack from Labour or LibDems just looks hypocritical
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Aug 6, 2020 22:23:08 GMT
Those are some very strange figures. You'd think Labour would capitalise on everything, but clearly people don't much like what they see at the moment. And the Green figure is odd too. But these are strange times. Labour has been keeping the gap close since Sir Keir Starmer took office as Leader of the Opposition, though. However, the societal divisions exacerbated by Brexit still cut deeply when it comes to polling, which is why despite Boris Johnson's grossly inept handling of the coronavirus crisis the Conservatives' poll rating has not dropped below 40% so far this year. I don't dispute that. But that doesn't explain why the Green Party hasn't kicked on. You should have been the obvious home for the resigning Corbynite type. But that doesn't seem to be happening. Although I suspect most people would be a bit suspicious of how the GPEW would approach a pandemic...
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Post by greenchristian on Aug 7, 2020 12:58:59 GMT
Once the furlough scheme ends and the redundancies really start to pile up, the Tory figure will start to drop. Let's also not forget its summer, the weather is generally better, people are in a better mood. Another month or two, and I expect Labour to take the lead. As for the Green vote, the more talk there is of a Green recovery, and the more the government offers only crumbs, the more our support will grow. Mass unemployment due to fewer people flying, fewer people commuting. People will be getting a taste of what a greener world actually means and they won't like it. Why would fewer people flying or commuting will cause mass unemployment? The aeroplane industry is not a mass employer, and any significant effect on employment from this will be highly localised. And whilst car parts/repairs jobs are fairly evenly spread around the country, having fewer cars on the road during rush-hour isn't likely to cause a large proportion of people in those industries to lose their jobs.
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Post by greenchristian on Aug 7, 2020 13:13:11 GMT
Labour has been keeping the gap close since Sir Keir Starmer took office as Leader of the Opposition, though. However, the societal divisions exacerbated by Brexit still cut deeply when it comes to polling, which is why despite Boris Johnson's grossly inept handling of the coronavirus crisis the Conservatives' poll rating has not dropped below 40% so far this year. I don't dispute that. But that doesn't explain why the Green Party hasn't kicked on. You should have been the obvious home for the resigning Corbynite type. But that doesn't seem to be happening. What proportion of the electorate do you think falls into the "resigning Corbynite type"?
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Aug 7, 2020 13:28:12 GMT
I don't dispute that. But that doesn't explain why the Green Party hasn't kicked on. You should have been the obvious home for the resigning Corbynite type. But that doesn't seem to be happening. What proportion of the electorate do you think falls into the "resigning Corbynite type"? Half the population of Bristol
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Sept 22, 2020 8:27:08 GMT
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,546
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 22, 2020 10:23:57 GMT
Starmer 7 points ahead of Johnson on the "best PM" question.
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Post by pragmaticidealist on Sept 22, 2020 11:59:06 GMT
Starmer 7 points ahead of Johnson on the "best PM" question. Worth looking at the polls (somewhere in Ipsos-Mori's archive) during the Callaghan/Thatcher years. They are eerily similar. Starmer, like Callaghan, comes off as a soothing figure in tough times, but leads a party that isn't popular enough to lead in the voting intentions.
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Post by tonygreaves on Sept 22, 2020 15:03:07 GMT
This is the first slightly interesting poll for a while. But one poll doesn't make an autumn...
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,546
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 23, 2020 11:22:41 GMT
Starmer 7 points ahead of Johnson on the "best PM" question. Worth looking at the polls (somewhere in Ipsos-Mori's archive) during the Callaghan/Thatcher years. They are eerily similar. Starmer, like Callaghan, comes off as a soothing figure in tough times, but leads a party that isn't popular enough to lead in the voting intentions. Up to a point perhaps, but Callaghan was actually PM so had the "built in" advantage that comes most of the time on this one - and the previous poll showed Johnson leading Starmer by 5 points on this question, so that is quite a big swing.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Oct 13, 2020 23:08:41 GMT
Ben Page, who is normally quite level-headed, has suddenly gone full Roger Awan-Scully over a poll coming out today at noon.
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Post by london(ex)tory on Oct 14, 2020 7:03:39 GMT
Ben Page, who is normally quite level-headed, has suddenly gone full Roger Awan-Scully over a poll coming out today at noon. I struggle to see what could be genuinely surprising other than something that is totally impossible like a Lib Dem lead. Tories still in the lead? No surprise - most polls still have them there Labour in the lead? No surprise - Opinium got there first Two main parties neck and neck? No surprise - we've had several like that already Lib Dems behind Greens? No surprise - YouGov got there first What can it be? Oh well, only four hours to wait.
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Post by Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith on Oct 14, 2020 7:13:25 GMT
Ben Page, who is normally quite level-headed, has suddenly gone full Roger Awan-Scully over a poll coming out today at noon. I struggle to see what could be genuinely surprising other than something that is totally impossible like a Lib Dem lead. Tories still in the lead? No surprise - most polls still have them there Labour in the lead? No surprise - Opinium got there first Two main parties neck and neck? No surprise - we've had several like that already Lib Dems behind Greens? No surprise - YouGov got there first What can it be? Oh well, only four hours to wait.
I've got it!
SNP top the poll in England!
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Post by hullenedge on Oct 14, 2020 7:45:09 GMT
Something Covid-related? Communitarians vastly outnumbering libertarians?
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carlton43
Non-Aligned
Posts: 48,394
Member is Online
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Post by carlton43 on Oct 14, 2020 8:42:18 GMT
Ben Page, who is normally quite level-headed, has suddenly gone full Roger Awan-Scully over a poll coming out today at noon. Slack water and pointless times, so attempting to drum up interest in what will be ephemeral nothing at all, even if it is a sort of 'something'.
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Post by bigfatron on Oct 14, 2020 8:44:01 GMT
The only thing that it can sensibly be is a 4 to 5 point Labour lead...
Just for clarity, I'm not saying that is what makes sense politically, but it is the only outcome that might justify his rather desperate tweet.
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Post by jollyroger93 on Oct 14, 2020 8:46:50 GMT
The only thing that it can sensibly be is a 4 to 5 point Labour lead... Just for clarity, I'm not saying that is what makes sense politically, but it is the only outcome that might justify his rather desperate tweet. Could it be a different national poll? Maybe one for Scotland?
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,546
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 14, 2020 10:22:16 GMT
Indeed that was my thought - massive lead for Scottish independence (60-40 or something)?
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Post by jollyroger93 on Oct 14, 2020 10:23:33 GMT
Indeed that was my thought - massive lead for Scottish independence (60-40 or something)? With Nicola vs salmond and other the opinions polls showing a slightly lower lead for yes I doubt it.
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Post by MeirionGwril on Oct 14, 2020 10:26:03 GMT
Indeed that was my thought - massive lead for Scottish independence (60-40 or something)? The 75% for indy Scotland 'if economically advantageous' is already published in The National ...
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