Ipsos-MORI

[Andrew_S]

Certain to vote:

Lab 40% (+5%)
Con 29% (-2%)
UKIP 12% (nc)
LD 10% (nc)
Oth 9% (-3%)

www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/07/17/dave-might-not-have-been-so-upbeat-at-pmqs-if-this-ipsos-mori-poll-had-come-out-two-hours-earlier/

[Deleted]

Labour, though, has held onto a double-digit lead, with the party unchanged on 40 per cent, the Conservatives up one on 30 per cent, Lib-Dems remaining on 10 per cent, and Ukip down one point to 11 per cent.

www.standard.co.uk/news/london/sorry-ed-theyre-just-not-that-into-you-six-out-of-10-dont-like-labour-leader-miliband-8762874.html

[johnr]

Aug 15, 2013 11:49:08 GMT @ianrobo said:

Labour, though, has held onto a double-digit lead, with the party unchanged on 40 per cent, the Conservatives up one on 30 per cent, Lib-Dems remaining on 10 per cent, and Ukip down one point to 11 per cent.

www.standard.co.uk/news/london/sorry-ed-theyre-just-not-that-into-you-six-out-of-10-dont-like-labour-leader-miliband-8762874.html

Which despite being landslide territory, is still being headlined as bad news for Labour. All the changes are within the margin of error.

[The Bishop]

Aug 15, 2013 12:43:00 GMT johnr said:

Which despite being landslide territory, is still being headlined as bad news for Labour

New to the Standard, pal??

[johnr]

No, it is still, despite the change in ownership, the Daily Mail for Londoners. One would have hoped, however, that being in the same media group as the Independent might raise the journalistic standard(!) a bit.

[Deleted]

Now the Standard screams that Labour's lead is just 3% 37-34 I believe but for me the last one was an outlier against trend anyway. It would be nice to have papers that were neutral and reported proper news eh ?

[The Bishop]

As mentioned before, the MORI headline figure only counts those who are "10/10 certain" to vote (37/34/[UKIP]11/10 in this case)

Amongst all those expressing a possible voting intention, the figures are 40/30/10/10. Now the former figure assumes a turnout of barely 50%, the latter around 80% - neither of those seem very likely. Split the difference to get a figure of around 65%, like last time, and that is maybe the "real" position?

[Deleted]

but thats the problem, the Standard screaming Ed in trouble etc ... but they are not explaining the figures as you have done for the context, without the context it becomes a meaningless political rant and does explain why political debate is so off in this country.

[Andrew_S]

IPSOS/MORI:

Lab 35%
Con 35%
UKIP 10%
LD 9%
Others 11%

[The Bishop]

Strangely enough, this poll also shows a hefty jump in Miliband's personal rating - he is now (just) ahead of Cameron.

(maybe not so odd, however, to those of us who have long held that there is little correlation between leader scores and wider popularity)

[erlend]

Also a bizarrely large collapse in Clegg's unpopularity from -40 to -26. Even for outlying polls that seems large.

[The Bishop]

This month's poll - Lab 38(up 3) Con 32(down 3) UKIP 9(down 1) LibDem 8(down 1)

[David Ashforth]

Ipsos-MORI's Tables and charts

[Devonian]

A poor poll result for UKIP and Lib Dems at 8% but a great one for the Green party at 7%. I know this is just one poll and I'd be amazed if they got that in the General election but that does nearly put them in third place! Is there anything about this poll that might be particularly favourable to the Green Party?

[greenchristian]

Nov 16, 2013 18:27:04 GMT Devonian said:

A poor poll result for UKIP and Lib Dems at 8% but a great one for the Green party at 7%. I know this is just one poll and I'd be amazed if they got that in the General election but that does nearly put them in third place! Is there anything about this poll that might be particularly favourable to the Green Party?

Here's what I can gather from the crosstabs:

We're doing particularly well in the North (excl. Scotland), amongst ex-Lib Dem voters, and amongst middle aged people.

We also appear to benefit from the likelihood to vote filter.

Amongst undecideds/refused, we're getting some very high numbers of "most inclined to support" amongst pensioners.

Given that our support usually tends to be strongest amongst younger demographics, I suspect this is something of a rogue poll. Though I'd be very happy to be proved wrong. If there's anything substantial behind it, I can only guess that it's something to do with fracking. Though you'd have thought that it would have turned up in other polls before now.

[marksenior]

Unfortunately for the Greens every other poll this week had them at 2-3% so the Ipsos Mori is just a freak of sampling .

[Tony Otim]

Even if we really were polling 7% in many polls, I'd still doubt we'd do that well in a GE - lack of candidates and organisation in some areas would definitely hurt us.

[The Bishop]

Their poll for December slipped out, almost unnoticed it seems, a few days ago - Lab 37 Con 33 UKIP 10 LibDem 9.

[Deleted]

The Ipsos-MORI political monitor for Jan sees LAB lead up to 9 and the LDs up 4
LAB+2, 39%
CON-3, 30
LDs+4, 13
UKIP+1, 11

[marksenior]

Ipsos Mori Feb Lab 38 Con 31 LD 12 UKIP 10