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Post by marksenior on May 15, 2013 11:52:47 GMT
UKIP are also down 2 in this poll . The full data tables may give some clue as to whether these changes are just down to the 10/10 certainty to vote filter .
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Post by Deleted on May 15, 2013 12:07:03 GMT
Spot on Mark, From Anthony's site
All the usual caveats about unusual poll findings apply and the full tabs are not yet up on the MORI website, but MORI’s Tom Mludzinski says the change is mostly due to Labour voters saying they are less likely to vote (as regular readers will know Ipsos MORI use the harshest turnout filter, only including respondents who say they are absolutely 10/10 certain to vote. Most other companies either use softer turnout filters, weighting down people who are less likely to vote, or ignore turnout filters completely away from election time).
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on May 15, 2013 12:27:17 GMT
A 10 out of 10 "filter" has always struck me as a bit daft - a result that purports to show UKIP *down* on a month ago arguably confirms that  Anybody know the "unfiltered" VI figures?? |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on May 15, 2013 13:05:11 GMT
Presumably 'mostly' implies that there was a slight fall in the unfiltered VI too.
I agree that a 10/10 filter is silly two years from an election, but it'd be interesting to see to what extent Labour supporters are less sure if they'll vote. There's a big difference between being 8/10 certain you'll vote and being almost certain you won't.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on May 15, 2013 13:29:11 GMT
I've just noticed that there seems to be a moderately significant disparity between YouGov's and Ipsos-MORI's leadership ratings for Miliband, and one that goes in the opposite direction to voting intention.
Weirdly, all the leaders have seen an improvement in their ratings since Ipsos-MORI's April poll, which seems somewhat counter-intuitive: /photo/1
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Post by marksenior on May 15, 2013 13:37:46 GMT
Presumably 'mostly' implies that there was a slight fall in the unfiltered VI too. I agree that a 10/10 filter is silly two years from an election, but it'd be interesting to see to what extent Labour supporters are less sure if they'll vote. There's a big difference between being 8/10 certain you'll vote and being almost certain you won't. In the whole sample Lab had 38% , those 8-10 certain 36% and those just 10/10 certain 34% . UKIP figures were 11 , 12 and 13% respectively Con and LD figures unchanged . Of the Others Greens were at a rather unusual high of 6% |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on May 15, 2013 13:45:29 GMT
Presumably 'mostly' implies that there was a slight fall in the unfiltered VI too It is apparently unchanged from a month ago on 38% (which was, strangely enough, the "official" figure then too) |
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Post by Deleted on May 15, 2013 14:48:45 GMT
So now we've had 4% for the BNP from ICM, and 6% for the Greens from Ipsos-MORI...  |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on May 15, 2013 15:24:12 GMT
Wonder if this Green figure was arrived at by a similar route to the BNP one with ICM??
(people who don't know about that should check UKPR for the - fairly astonishing - details)
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Post by Deleted on May 15, 2013 15:32:31 GMT
So now we've had 4% for the BNP from ICM, and 6% for the Greens from Ipsos-MORI... Is You Gov becoming the only pollster that seems not to bring out these looney ratings ? |
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on May 15, 2013 19:51:59 GMT
Wonder if this Green figure was arrived at by a similar route to the BNP one with ICM?? (people who don't know about that should check UKPR for the - fairly astonishing - details) If I'm reading the tables right, I don't think so. It looks like the Ipsos survey just had an unusually high number of Green voters (half of whom had voted LD in 2010). |
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Post by Deleted on May 15, 2013 20:13:17 GMT
A 10 out of 10 "filter" has always struck me as a bit daft - a result that purports to show UKIP *down* on a month ago arguably confirms that Anybody know the "unfiltered" VI figures?? It may seem so (not just defending this poll because its good for the tories -> thats just a bit of a rogue). However, people hugely overestimate their chances of voting (Dont votes tend to get about 15 rather than about 40). If 60% of people say they are 10/10 to vote, it could be said to be a decent(ish) assumption that these correspond to the 60% of people who actually. I think it probably works well despite being a bit of a horrible bodge job. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 12, 2013 12:32:55 GMT
roadto326 @roadto326
Ipsos MORI - CON (31%) LAB (35%) LD (10%) UKIP (12%)
the thing getting everyone excited is that in this poll that Balls heads OSborne for the first time as best chancellor
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 12, 2013 13:18:11 GMT
Another big share for non-UKIP "others", I see. Am somewhat dubious about this, tbh....
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Jun 12, 2013 13:35:16 GMT
roadto326 @roadto326 Ipsos MORI - CON (31%) LAB (35%) LD (10%) UKIP (12%) the thing getting everyone excited is that in this poll that Balls heads OSborne for the first time as best chancellor Not the first time - he had a bigger lead over Osborne this time last year - look at the tables, not the twitter feed. |
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Jun 12, 2013 13:39:05 GMT
Another big share for non-UKIP "others", I see. Am somewhat dubious about this, tbh.... Breaks down: SNP/PC 4 Grn 4 BNP 2 Oth 2 For some reason Mori seem to have a sample at the moment that skews a bit greener than it should in probability. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 12, 2013 14:08:46 GMT
Another big share for non-UKIP "others", I see. Am somewhat dubious about this, tbh.... I do wonder how many people's disenchantment with politics is going to manifest itself at the next election. Even lower turnout, more votes for smaller parties.. or what? |
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Jun 12, 2013 16:17:30 GMT
People have been 'disenchanted' with politics for quite a while now.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 12, 2013 19:36:22 GMT
People have been 'disenchanted' with politics for quite a while now. Yes they have. Although look at the figures for Balls/Milli vs Gideon/Cameron re: confidence in their ability to handle the economy. Even in the past year or so there's been a pretty marked decline. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 12, 2013 20:03:22 GMT
I think it is wider than that, all down to 'all the same' and this is where UKIP sneak in isn't it because they have never been tested at Westminister so easy to say 'not like them'.
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