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Post by justin124 on Jul 31, 2019 18:30:52 GMT
Why would the Tories poll a higher vote share here tomorrow than in the 1985 by election? 1. Because the Lib/Lib Dem tradition of Mid Wales has declined? 2. Because demographically the seat is less distinctive than in 1985? 3. Because the issues are different? 4. Because there are different candidates? There had not been much of a Liberal tradition in this constituency in the period prior to 1985. The seat had been Labour-held since 1939 until falling to the Tories at the 1979 GE. Significant boundary changes before the 1983 GE effectively changed the electoral dynamics of the seat by transferring strong Labour voting areas into Blaenau Gwent. The 1985 by election saw a very close fight between the Liberals and Labour as they battled to emerge as the main anti-Tory alternative. Whilst the Liberal majority was small - and very tiny indeed at the 1987 GE - , the fact of having held the seat for 25 of the last 34 years does mean that over time they have picked up a great deal of anti-Tory tactical votes from Labour.On that basis, the LibDems should have a much easier task than in 1985 - simply because the non-Tory vote has ceased to be split in the same way. But where have the additional Tory votes come from?
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Post by justin124 on Jul 31, 2019 18:33:08 GMT
It’s likely the Tories do better than in 1985 because of Labour’s ineptitude here and the Brexit Party’s weakness I don't quite follow that. There was no Brexit or UKIP candidate in 1985. Moreover, Labour's ineptitude should surely help the LibDems here - rather than the Tories.
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Andrew_S
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Post by Andrew_S on Jul 31, 2019 19:06:50 GMT
Incisive reporting from one of Sky News's political correspondents.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 31, 2019 20:27:00 GMT
Incisive reporting from one of Sky News's political correspondents. Lewis Goodall is a dickhead Witness this exchange
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Post by MeirionGwril on Jul 31, 2019 21:11:25 GMT
Apologies if this is up-thread (too many pages to check), but is it known whether Brycheiniog a Maesyfed will count on Thursday night or Friday morning?
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Post by manchesterman on Jul 31, 2019 21:41:41 GMT
Was just about to ask the same question, given the area the constituency covers. If its counting overnight and could be by say 3pm I can stay up for it. It if 4/5am or even the next day, then I can go to bed at a sane time!
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Post by edgbaston on Jul 31, 2019 21:50:54 GMT
Incisive reporting from one of Sky News's political correspondents. Lewis Goodall is a dickhead Witness this exchange LOL what is that thread.
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Post by gwynthegriff on Jul 31, 2019 21:53:43 GMT
1. Because the Lib/Lib Dem tradition of Mid Wales has declined? 2. Because demographically the seat is less distinctive than in 1985? 3. Because the issues are different? 4. Because there are different candidates? There had not been much of a Liberal tradition in this constituency in the period prior to 1985. The seat had been Labour-held since 1939 until falling to the Tories at the 1979 GE. Significant boundary changes before the 1983 GE effectively changed the electoral dynamics of the seat by transferring strong Labour voting areas into Blaenau Gwent. The 1985 by election saw a very close fight between the Liberals and Labour as they battled to emerge as the main anti-Tory alternative. Whilst the Liberal majority was small - and very tiny indeed at the 1987 GE - , the fact of having held the seat for 25 of the last 34 years does mean that over time they have picked up a great deal of anti-Tory tactical votes from Labour.On that basis, the LibDems should have a much easier task than in 1985 - simply because the non-Tory vote has ceased to be split in the same way. But where have the additional Tory votes come from? My reference was to the Liberal tradition of Mid Wales. I suspect the fact that there were respected Lib MPs in two neighbouring constituencies was relevant.
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Post by gwynthegriff on Jul 31, 2019 21:55:04 GMT
I get the impression that Claire Mills might not be an entirely impartial observer.
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Post by edgbaston on Jul 31, 2019 21:58:39 GMT
I get the impression that Claire Mills might not be an entirely impartial observer. What makes you say that?
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Post by edgbaston on Jul 31, 2019 22:00:02 GMT
Apologies if this is up-thread (too many pages to check), but is it known whether Brycheiniog a Maesyfed will count on Thursday night or Friday morning? I understand the Brecon count is through the night. Not sure about Brycheiniog a Maesyfed!
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Post by gwynthegriff on Jul 31, 2019 22:19:26 GMT
I get the impression that Claire Mills might not be an entirely impartial observer. What makes you say that? Dunno, really. Just something about the picture next to her name ...
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john07
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Post by john07 on Jul 31, 2019 23:09:48 GMT
I get the impression that Claire Mills might not be an entirely impartial observer. Au contraire, I suspect that Claire Mills may be a complete arsehole. Maybe it’s just me?
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ricmk
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Post by ricmk on Jul 31, 2019 23:21:40 GMT
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Post by London Lad on Aug 1, 2019 3:43:14 GMT
I get the impression that Claire Mills might not be an entirely impartial observer. Assuming it's the same Claire Mills, 2 minutes googling led me her register of interests in Powys Council, looking at her job she has more than a passing interest in seeing the Tories hold on... Well its easy to shoot the messenger, but what about her point?. Can a vegetarian be that supportive of farming?. Its rather like putting someone from CND in charge of defence.
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cogload
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Post by cogload on Aug 1, 2019 3:51:49 GMT
A vegetarian can be very supportive of farming. A few farmers are themselves vegetarian, some are even vegan...
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Post by froome on Aug 1, 2019 4:18:37 GMT
A vegetarian can be very supportive of farming. A few farmers are themselves vegetarian, some are even vegan... IIRC the first Welsh Assembly agriculture minister (or whatever they are called) was vegetarian, and took a lot of flak from political opponents and in the media at the time due to this.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 1, 2019 6:02:51 GMT
It’s by-election day!
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Aug 1, 2019 6:12:35 GMT
Assuming it's the same Claire Mills, 2 minutes googling led me her register of interests in Powys Council, looking at her job she has more than a passing interest in seeing the Tories hold on... Well its easy to shoot the messenger, but what about her point?. Can a vegetarian be that supportive of farming?. Its rather like putting someone from CND in charge of defence. Oh please that’s not the same thing any anyone with half an ounce of intelligence would know that.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Aug 1, 2019 7:22:21 GMT
Assuming it's the same Claire Mills, 2 minutes googling led me her register of interests in Powys Council, looking at her job she has more than a passing interest in seeing the Tories hold on... Well its easy to shoot the messenger, but what about her point?. Can a vegetarian be that supportive of farming?. Its rather like putting someone from CND in charge of defence. I'm going to let you into a massive secret that will blow your mind. Everything vegetarians eat is grown by farmers.
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