Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Mar 22, 2019 12:38:53 GMT
The Thurrock ward isn't one where we have been competitive in recent years so it's reverted to type As indeed has Vange. With a couple of exceptions it's a Labour ward with a small majority and in a straight fight it's not that surprising in an Essex seat that UKIP votes switch to Tory! In current times Essex isn't likely to display significant pro-Labour swings from my limited knowledge of the area, I'd say that Aveley is one of the most middle-class & naturally Tory parts of the Thurrock constituency. Your analysis of Vange is about right I'd say. Usually Labour but can vote Tory in particularly bad Labour years Yes. And a very high UKIP vote in Vange too and the lack of similar candidate was always going to help the Tories. Or at least in Essex, not us! |
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Post by John Chanin on Mar 22, 2019 13:13:21 GMT
The Thurrock ward isn't one where we have been competitive in recent years so it's reverted to type As indeed has Vange. With a couple of exceptions it's a Labour ward with a small majority and in a straight fight it's not that surprising in an Essex seat that UKIP votes switch to Tory! In current times Essex isn't likely to display significant pro-Labour swings from my limited knowledge of the area, I'd say that Aveley is one of the most middle-class & naturally Tory parts of the Thurrock constituency. Your analysis of Vange is about right I'd say. Usually Labour but can vote Tory in particularly bad Labour years Yes Aveley is naturally Conservative. I don't do the prediction competition but was surprised so few people went for a Conservative win. On the other hand Vange really ought to be solid Labour, and we need to find a way to reconnect with many of the alienated in South Essex. |
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Mar 22, 2019 13:54:45 GMT
The ward voted UKIP as far back as 2006, so I expect it has big Eurosceptic vote which turned out for this candidate. Labour's big win last year was probably a fluke. oh interesting thanks Interesting perhaps, but not entirely accurate. Firstly for accuracy the Ward was only created last year, previously it had been two separate Wards. UKIP won the Holditch part in 2009, lost it in 2012 before regaining it (with last night’s winner) in 2014. They gained the Chesterton Ward in 2014 (I suspect assisted by Gareth Snell swapping Wards to try and get a safe Ward for Llin Golding); the LDs also held a seat here from 2008-12. Labour won the other seat in both Wards pretty comfortably in 2016, before sweeping the new Ward in 2018. Under normal circumstances this should not have been lost by Labour, and it’s perhaps worth noting a Conservative cabinet member at the count began his Tweets at around 10pm by stating this was a battle for second place. I’d be interested to see whether last night’s winner joins either of the Independent groups propping up the Tories as he ran a very much “there shouldn’t be political parties in local elections” type of campaign criticising the current administration by arguing they were doing a poor job of clearing up the mess Labour had created. |
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on Mar 22, 2019 14:24:31 GMT
from my limited knowledge of the area, I'd say that Aveley is one of the most middle-class & naturally Tory parts of the Thurrock constituency. Your analysis of Vange is about right I'd say. Usually Labour but can vote Tory in particularly bad Labour years Yes Aveley is naturally Conservative. I don't do the prediction competition but was surprised so few people went for a Conservative win. On the other hand Vange really ought to be solid Labour, and we need to find a way to reconnect with many of the alienated in South Essex. I too know both areas very well but at 3-decades distance. I would have placed Aveley as marginal left leaning and Vange as very solid Labour indeed. |
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Post by tucson on Mar 22, 2019 15:29:39 GMT
Interesting perhaps, but not entirely accurate. Firstly for accuracy the Ward was only created last year, previously it had been two separate Wards. UKIP won the Holditch part in 2009, lost it in 2012 before regaining it (with last night’s winner) in 2014. They gained the Chesterton Ward in 2014 (I suspect assisted by Gareth Snell swapping Wards to try and get a safe Ward for Llin Golding); the LDs also held a seat here from 2008-12. Labour won the other seat in both Wards pretty comfortably in 2016, before sweeping the new Ward in 2018. Under normal circumstances this should not have been lost by Labour, and it’s perhaps worth noting a Conservative cabinet member at the count began his Tweets at around 10pm by stating this was a battle for second place. I’d be interested to see whether last night’s winner joins either of the Independent groups propping up the Tories as he ran a very much “there shouldn’t be political parties in local elections” type of campaign criticising the current administration by arguing they were doing a poor job of clearing up the mess Labour had created. Interesting, but not entirely accurate! Snell fled from Silverdale because he thought he’d lose it and assumed Chesterton was a safer bet. He was wrong! Llin Golding stood because Labour thought her name on the ballot paper would be enough to hold the ward....wrong again! And there’s only one independent group at Newcastle, the ‘Borough Independents’ and they prop-up the Conservatives, and as the winner’s leaflet was a carbon copy of last May’s Borough Independents leaflet then it’s safe to assume he’ll be sitting with them. |
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Mar 22, 2019 15:29:45 GMT
Yes Aveley is naturally Conservative. I don't do the prediction competition but was surprised so few people went for a Conservative win. On the other hand Vange really ought to be solid Labour, and we need to find a way to reconnect with many of the alienated in South Essex. I too know both areas very well but at 3-decades distance. I would have placed Aveley as marginal left leaning and Vange as very solid Labour indeed. <iframe width="24.200000000000045" height="5.460000000000008" style="position: absolute; width: 24.200000000000045px; height: 5.460000000000008px; z-index: -9999; border-style: none;left: 15px; top: -5px;" id="MoatPxIOPT1_73943798" scrolling="no"></iframe> <iframe width="24.200000000000045" height="5.460000000000008" style="position: absolute; width: 24.2px; height: 5.46px; z-index: -9999; border-style: none; left: 1149px; top: -5px;" id="MoatPxIOPT1_51480838" scrolling="no"></iframe> <iframe width="24.200000000000045" height="5.460000000000008" style="position: absolute; width: 24.2px; height: 5.46px; z-index: -9999; border-style: none; left: 15px; top: 211px;" id="MoatPxIOPT1_93001482" scrolling="no"></iframe> <iframe width="24.200000000000045" height="5.460000000000008" style="position: absolute; width: 24.2px; height: 5.46px; z-index: -9999; border-style: none; left: 1149px; top: 211px;" id="MoatPxIOPT1_89045102" scrolling="no"></iframe> Aveley is quite bad for Labour now, last time it voted for Labour was in 1999, despite voting Labour exclusively through the Thatcher era (never polled above 28% since 2002). |
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Post by finsobruce on Mar 22, 2019 15:49:45 GMT
NEWCASTLE-UNDER-LYME Holditch and Chesterton OWEN, Kenneth John (Independent) 282 RADFORD, Peter James (Labour) 268 BARLOW, Mark Henry (UKIP) 86 WHITWORTH, Lawrence James (Conservative) 49 LOVATT, Carol (SDP) 14 That is a very weak Conservative vote in an area not that hostile! Assume it must have been a matter of candidate popularity (quality) where the right went with the candidate most likely to thwart Labour, if indeed they saw it in such terms at all? Could just have been 'Oh I quite like Ken'? All of the above, I suspect. |
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Mar 22, 2019 16:01:51 GMT
Interesting perhaps, but not entirely accurate. Firstly for accuracy the Ward was only created last year, previously it had been two separate Wards. UKIP won the Holditch part in 2009, lost it in 2012 before regaining it (with last night’s winner) in 2014. They gained the Chesterton Ward in 2014 (I suspect assisted by Gareth Snell swapping Wards to try and get a safe Ward for Llin Golding); the LDs also held a seat here from 2008-12. Labour won the other seat in both Wards pretty comfortably in 2016, before sweeping the new Ward in 2018. Under normal circumstances this should not have been lost by Labour, and it’s perhaps worth noting a Conservative cabinet member at the count began his Tweets at around 10pm by stating this was a battle for second place. I’d be interested to see whether last night’s winner joins either of the Independent groups propping up the Tories as he ran a very much “there shouldn’t be political parties in local elections” type of campaign criticising the current administration by arguing they were doing a poor job of clearing up the mess Labour had created. Interesting, but not entirely accurate! Snell fled from Silverdale because he thought he’d lose it and assumed Chesterton was a safer bet. He was wrong! Llin Golding stood because Labour thought her name on the ballot paper would be enough to hold the ward....wrong again! And there’s only one independent group at Newcastle, the ‘Borough Independents’ and they prop-up the Conservatives, and as the winner’s leaflet was a carbon copy of last May’s Borough Independents leaflet then it’s safe to assume he’ll be sitting with them. Hmmmm that’s not the version of events re Snell/Golding that came out of the Selection Meetings, it was said, but I only have it second hand, that Regional Office tried to persuade him not to switch as they weren’t fussed about whether or not Golding got on to the Council. Conceded about the Independent Group, I didn’t realise the Borough Independents and Kidsgrove Independents had merged since last year. The Sentinel doesn’t bother reporting things like that when there’s a cute puppy to fill two pages. He is indeed sitting with them, the Council website has already got him up there, which might be interesting given that two of them started as Lib Dems and the other I think is ex-Labour. |
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Post by andrewp on Mar 22, 2019 16:03:27 GMT
I somehow suspect that the Conservatives would have gained Vange with a different candidate.
The Labour winner lives in Billericay.
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Mar 22, 2019 16:19:48 GMT
Interesting, but not entirely accurate! Snell fled from Silverdale because he thought he’d lose it and assumed Chesterton was a safer bet. He was wrong! Llin Golding stood because Labour thought her name on the ballot paper would be enough to hold the ward....wrong again! And there’s only one independent group at Newcastle, the ‘Borough Independents’ and they prop-up the Conservatives, and as the winner’s leaflet was a carbon copy of last May’s Borough Independents leaflet then it’s safe to assume he’ll be sitting with them. Hmmmm that’s not the version of events re Snell/Golding that came out of the Selection Meetings, it was said, but I only have it second hand, that Regional Office tried to persuade him not to switch as they weren’t fussed about whether or not Golding got on to the Council. Conceded about the Independent Group, I didn’t realise the Borough Independents and Kidsgrove Independents had merged since last year. The Sentinel doesn’t bother reporting things like that when there’s a cute puppy to fill two pages. He is indeed sitting with them, the Council website has already got him up there, which might be interesting given that two of them started as Lib Dems and the other I think is ex-Labour. Don't forget that Independents have a strange relationship to the idea of parties in terms of local government - to all intents and purposes independent groups appear to act exactly like parties, rather than independent councillors from what I can see. Yet because they use that word - independent - they portray themselves as above party. I wonder if thats partially why the tiggers are not rushing to form a new party? There may be from their perspective some mileage in presenting themselves as above party? |
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Post by andrewteale on Mar 22, 2019 21:20:47 GMT
Incidentally, yesterday was Llin Golding's 86th birthday.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Mar 22, 2019 21:26:52 GMT
Hmmmm that’s not the version of events re Snell/Golding that came out of the Selection Meetings, it was said, but I only have it second hand, that Regional Office tried to persuade him not to switch as they weren’t fussed about whether or not Golding got on to the Council. Conceded about the Independent Group, I didn’t realise the Borough Independents and Kidsgrove Independents had merged since last year. The Sentinel doesn’t bother reporting things like that when there’s a cute puppy to fill two pages. He is indeed sitting with them, the Council website has already got him up there, which might be interesting given that two of them started as Lib Dems and the other I think is ex-Labour. Don't forget that Independents have a strange relationship to the idea of parties in terms of local government - to all intents and purposes independent groups appear to act exactly like parties, rather than independent councillors from what I can see. Yet because they use that word - independent - they portray themselves as above party. I wonder if thats partially why the tiggers are not rushing to form a new party? There may be from their perspective some mileage in presenting themselves as above party? I have to say the City Independents have rarely made any pretence of not being a Party, and have presented themselves on a joint manifesto (was one reason why the late Paul Breeze resisted joining them until a few months before his death). They make a play on their different backgrounds - ex all three main Parties, ex-UKIP, ex-BNP in their midst as showing them to be more open minded than any of the Parties who are beholden to the policies of their national leadership. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 22, 2019 21:31:32 GMT
Incidentally, yesterday was Llin Golding's 86th birthday. Hammer of Left is a good read |
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Post by andrewp on Mar 22, 2019 21:32:56 GMT
Incidentally, yesterday was Llin Golding's 86th birthday. It was Michael Heseltine’s 86th birthday too |
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Post by tucson on Mar 23, 2019 7:33:39 GMT
Interesting, but not entirely accurate! Snell fled from Silverdale because he thought he’d lose it and assumed Chesterton was a safer bet. He was wrong! Llin Golding stood because Labour thought her name on the ballot paper would be enough to hold the ward....wrong again! And there’s only one independent group at Newcastle, the ‘Borough Independents’ and they prop-up the Conservatives, and as the winner’s leaflet was a carbon copy of last May’s Borough Independents leaflet then it’s safe to assume he’ll be sitting with them. Hmmmm that’s not the version of events re Snell/Golding that came out of the Selection Meetings, it was said, but I only have it second hand, that Regional Office tried to persuade him not to switch as they weren’t fussed about whether or not Golding got on to the Council. Conceded about the Independent Group, I didn’t realise the Borough Independents and Kidsgrove Independents had merged since last year. The Sentinel doesn’t bother reporting things like that when there’s a cute puppy to fill two pages. He is indeed sitting with them, the Council website has already got him up there, which might be interesting given that two of them started as Lib Dems and the other I think is ex-Labour. The KIG and the BIG didn’t merge, the KIG simply failed to get anyone elected! And the BIG is a real mix of Cllrs....their leader was a LibDem Parish Cllr who stood for Borough as LibDem, lost, and stood the following year as Labour, got elected, then left to become Independent (and plasters his property with Con election posters!) One of their Madeley Cllrs has a similar journey LD-Lab-Ind, their other Madeley Cllr was discovered to have been a member of the Cons and LibDems at the same time. Their ‘new’ Cllr was, until recently, the UKIP group leader. A real mixed bag if ever there was one! |
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Post by finsobruce on Mar 23, 2019 7:43:16 GMT
Hmmmm that’s not the version of events re Snell/Golding that came out of the Selection Meetings, it was said, but I only have it second hand, that Regional Office tried to persuade him not to switch as they weren’t fussed about whether or not Golding got on to the Council. Conceded about the Independent Group, I didn’t realise the Borough Independents and Kidsgrove Independents had merged since last year. The Sentinel doesn’t bother reporting things like that when there’s a cute puppy to fill two pages. He is indeed sitting with them, the Council website has already got him up there, which might be interesting given that two of them started as Lib Dems and the other I think is ex-Labour. The KIG and the BIG didn’t merge, the KIG simply failed to get anyone elected! And the BIG is a real mix of Cllrs....their leader was a LibDem Parish Cllr who stood for Borough as LibDem, lost, and stood the following year as Labour, got elected, then left to become Independent (and plasters his property with Con election posters!) One of their Madeley Cllrs has a similar journey LD-Lab-Ind, their other Madeley Cllr was discovered to have been a member of the Cons and LibDems at the same time. Their ‘new’ Cllr was, until recently, the UKIP group leader. A real mixed bag if ever there was one! If anywhere is ever going to see the establishment of an official branch of the "Councillor party" it could well be here.  |
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Post by stananson on Mar 23, 2019 12:47:04 GMT
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Mar 23, 2019 17:17:00 GMT
Hmmmm that’s not the version of events re Snell/Golding that came out of the Selection Meetings, it was said, but I only have it second hand, that Regional Office tried to persuade him not to switch as they weren’t fussed about whether or not Golding got on to the Council. Conceded about the Independent Group, I didn’t realise the Borough Independents and Kidsgrove Independents had merged since last year. The Sentinel doesn’t bother reporting things like that when there’s a cute puppy to fill two pages. He is indeed sitting with them, the Council website has already got him up there, which might be interesting given that two of them started as Lib Dems and the other I think is ex-Labour. The KIG and the BIG didn’t merge, the KIG simply failed to get anyone elected! And the BIG is a real mix of Cllrs....their leader was a LibDem Parish Cllr who stood for Borough as LibDem, lost, and stood the following year as Labour, got elected, then left to become Independent (and plasters his property with Con election posters!) One of their Madeley Cllrs has a similar journey LD-Lab-Ind, their other Madeley Cllr was discovered to have been a member of the Cons and LibDems at the same time. Their ‘new’ Cllr was, until recently, the UKIP group leader. A real mixed bag if ever there was one! <iframe width="23.860000000000127" height="9.639999999999986" style="position: absolute; width: 23.860000000000127px; height: 9.639999999999986px; z-index: -9999; border-style: none;left: 15px; top: -5px;" id="MoatPxIOPT0_82906011" scrolling="no"></iframe> <iframe width="23.860000000000127" height="9.639999999999986" style="position: absolute; width: 23.86px; height: 9.64px; z-index: -9999; border-style: none; left: 1133px; top: -5px;" id="MoatPxIOPT0_96268560" scrolling="no"></iframe> <iframe width="23.860000000000127" height="9.639999999999986" style="position: absolute; width: 23.86px; height: 9.64px; z-index: -9999; border-style: none; left: 15px; top: 417px;" id="MoatPxIOPT0_2802421" scrolling="no"></iframe> <iframe width="23.860000000000127" height="9.639999999999986" style="position: absolute; width: 23.86px; height: 9.64px; z-index: -9999; border-style: none; left: 1133px; top: 417px;" id="MoatPxIOPT0_82435716" scrolling="no"></iframe> Aren't those two Madeley councillors with the similar journey a couple? |
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Mar 23, 2019 17:35:10 GMT
The KIG and the BIG didn’t merge, the KIG simply failed to get anyone elected! And the BIG is a real mix of Cllrs....their leader was a LibDem Parish Cllr who stood for Borough as LibDem, lost, and stood the following year as Labour, got elected, then left to become Independent (and plasters his property with Con election posters!) One of their Madeley Cllrs has a similar journey LD-Lab-Ind, their other Madeley Cllr was discovered to have been a member of the Cons and LibDems at the same time. Their ‘new’ Cllr was, until recently, the UKIP group leader. A real mixed bag if ever there was one! <iframe width="23.860000000000127" height="9.639999999999986" style="position: absolute; width: 23.860000000000127px; height: 9.639999999999986px; z-index: -9999; border-style: none;left: 15px; top: -5px;" id="MoatPxIOPT0_82906011" scrolling="no"></iframe> <iframe width="23.860000000000127" height="9.639999999999986" style="position: absolute; width: 23.86px; height: 9.64px; z-index: -9999; border-style: none; left: 1133px; top: -5px;" id="MoatPxIOPT0_96268560" scrolling="no"></iframe> <iframe width="23.860000000000127" height="9.639999999999986" style="position: absolute; width: 23.86px; height: 9.64px; z-index: -9999; border-style: none; left: 15px; top: 417px;" id="MoatPxIOPT0_2802421" scrolling="no"></iframe> <iframe width="23.860000000000127" height="9.639999999999986" style="position: absolute; width: 23.86px; height: 9.64px; z-index: -9999; border-style: none; left: 1133px; top: 417px;" id="MoatPxIOPT0_82435716" scrolling="no"></iframe> Aren't those two Madeley councillors with the similar journey a couple? Yes, they got married last year I believe. |
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Rural Radical
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Post by Rural Radical on Mar 23, 2019 20:20:52 GMT
The KIG and the BIG didn’t merge, the KIG simply failed to get anyone elected! And the BIG is a real mix of Cllrs....their leader was a LibDem Parish Cllr who stood for Borough as LibDem, lost, and stood the following year as Labour, got elected, then left to become Independent (and plasters his property with Con election posters!) One of their Madeley Cllrs has a similar journey LD-Lab-Ind, their other Madeley Cllr was discovered to have been a member of the Cons and LibDems at the same time. Their ‘new’ Cllr was, until recently, the UKIP group leader. A real mixed bag if ever there was one! <iframe width="23.860000000000127" height="9.639999999999986" style="position: absolute; width: 23.860000000000127px; height: 9.639999999999986px; z-index: -9999; border-style: none;left: 15px; top: -5px;" id="MoatPxIOPT0_82906011" scrolling="no"></iframe> <iframe width="23.860000000000127" height="9.639999999999986" style="position: absolute; width: 23.86px; height: 9.64px; z-index: -9999; border-style: none; left: 1133px; top: -5px;" id="MoatPxIOPT0_96268560" scrolling="no"></iframe> <iframe width="23.860000000000127" height="9.639999999999986" style="position: absolute; width: 23.86px; height: 9.64px; z-index: -9999; border-style: none; left: 15px; top: 417px;" id="MoatPxIOPT0_2802421" scrolling="no"></iframe> <iframe width="23.860000000000127" height="9.639999999999986" style="position: absolute; width: 23.86px; height: 9.64px; z-index: -9999; border-style: none; left: 1133px; top: 417px;" id="MoatPxIOPT0_82435716" scrolling="no"></iframe> Aren't those two Madeley councillors with the similar journey a couple? Yes. They are married. |
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