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Post by Adam in Stroud on Mar 1, 2019 9:46:24 GMT
Con 49.8% Lab 34.4% LD 11.6% Green 4.1% Changes from 2016 con +4.6 Lab +0.8 LD -1.5 Green -3.9 So, as predicted by many, the defection of the Independent groupers has damaged the Green vote. 
Judging from @europeanlefty's report, I think the main effect may have been to stymie a Labour squeeze on us, leaving the Conservatives able to consolidate. We ran a minimalist campaign but probably enough to leave us as the main None Of The Above candidate ahead of the Greens. |
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Mar 1, 2019 12:55:03 GMT
Con 49.8% Lab 34.4% LD 11.6% Green 4.1% Changes from 2016 con +4.6 Lab +0.8 LD -1.5 Green -3.9 So, as predicted by many, the defection of the Independent groupers has damaged the Green vote.  But not as much as not campaigning did  |
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Post by finsobruce on Mar 1, 2019 13:22:18 GMT
So, as predicted by many, the defection of the Independent groupers has damaged the Green vote. But not as much as not campaigning did It's a conspiracy! |
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Post by middleenglander on Mar 1, 2019 15:47:17 GMT
Stroud, Berkeley Vale - Conservative hold | Party | 2019 votes | 2019 share | since 2016 "top" | since 2016 "average" | Conservative | 993 | 49.8% | +4.6% | +2.4% | Labour | 686 | 34.4% | +0.8% | +3.7% | Liberal Democrat | 231 | 11.6% | -1.5% | -0.9% | Green | 82 | 4.1% | -3.9% | -5.1% | Total votes | 1,992 |
| 70% | 81% |
Swing Labour to Conservative ~ 2% since 2016 based on "top" candidate votes, probably best assessment for this particular contest, - but Conservative to Labour ~ ½% based on "average" votes Council now 22 Conservative, 16 Labour, 9 Green, 2 Liberal Democrat, 1 Non Group Conservative, 1 Independent
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 1, 2019 19:01:15 GMT
To be honest, I think this result reflects the actual partisan divide of the ward. Obviously you can't split your vote when only one place is up for election, so I think a lot of partisan Tories who voted for Liz and two Tories in 2016 voted with party rather than candidate this time.
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Mar 1, 2019 19:10:12 GMT
To be honest, I think this result reflects the actual partisan divide of the ward. Obviously you can't split your vote when only one place is up for election, so I think a lot of partisan Tories who voted for Liz and two Tories in 2016 voted with party rather than candidate this time. I think that’s a good point actually. If one losing candidate in a 3 member ward significantly outpolls their running mates, and there is then a by election In said ward, then that candidate appears to have a good chance. In practice that person has possibly significantly outpolled their running mates due to in this case people who have voted 2Con/ 1 Lab being happy that they have mainly supported their normal party but it’s ok to put one cross against a diffferent party because of a good candidate. But when said voter only has 1 cross they will very likely vote for their normal party. |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 1, 2019 20:49:12 GMT
There are a couple of other points, partly re personal vote, that may be significant. 1) The reason I described this as a "nonsense ward" is that it comprises 3 areas which have next to nothing in common. Slimbridge, Berkeley and Stone feel like 3 different worlds and if it weren't for numerical requirements, there would be no logical argument for including them all in the same ward at all. This means that nobody's personal vote applies across the whole ward, but rather in their particular bit of it. 2) Regarding Adam in Stroud 's point about a vote squeeze on the LibDems: there are a couple if reasons why I don't think this was ever likely. Firstly, there are no LibDems in Berkeley and Sharpness which is where Liz had most of her personal vote. Secondly, the second party of most of the wards LibDems will be the Tories rather than Labour. Thirdly, Liz has never represented Slimbridge on the district council and isn't terribly well know there, while Mike Stayte is. The third Tory from 2016 is also the Slimbridge Tory, Haydn Jones, so Mike Stayte probably inherited most of his personal vote. Lastly, any potential Labour vote in Slimbridge overlaps with the pool of potential LibDem votes and the parish's remain voters, so the LibDem vote was always likely to hold up. Especially as we canvassed Cambridge the day after the Independent Limited Company split from the party, and may have served as a reminder of why people shouldn't vote for us. 3) The Tory candidate isn't as well known and won't have had a huge personal vote, but she is a parish councillor in Alkington. This suggests that while Liz had a personal vote from a mixed, rather UKIPy area and will have picked up votes from people who may otherwise have voted Tory, Lindsey Greens personal vote will have overlapped almost entirely with the partisan Tory vote and so will be less obvious. 4) Overall, however, I think this is one of those results that it's tempting to spend hours analysing and putting forward hundreds of theories for, but in reality tells us next to nothing. I stand by my comment that the percentages are almost certainly the percentage support for each party in any generic election. I will note, however, that the administration's progressive alliance outpolled the Tories by 999 votes to 993, so the administration and opposition came out roughly even. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 26, 2019 14:02:42 GMT
I went on a trip to Slimbridge with my primary school, I guess around 40 years ago. Dismal, boring place, probably not helped by the fact it was pissing down with rain the whole time we were there. Worth mentioning because on the same trip (we stayed near Cheltenham for two or three nights) I have a recollection of visiting some kind of textile factory in a grim looking little industrial town and I've never known where it was, but it makes some sense that it may have been in the Stroud area (possibly Stonehouse or somewhere like that) We still have a working textile mill here in Cam (it's just over the road and can almost be seen from my sister's bedroom window). It wasn't that one was it? It turns out it was in Hinckley - a Fred Perry factory. I found the entire itinery and it wasn't even the same trip as Slimbridge. I had started to doubt it because of some of musical associations - the song I most associate with the Warwickshire trip was Geno by Dexys Midnight Runners (which would have made it the summer of 1980) whereas I remember the Grease songs being de rigueur around the time of Slimbridge, which would have been a year or two earlier. So there you go - I'm sure everyone was waiting with baited breath for that discovery. |
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