Local Council By-election 31st January 2019

[Tony Otim]

And just the one to finish off the month:

SURREY CC; Warlingham (Con resigned)
Candidates:
HALEY, Martin Arthur (UKIP)
LISTER, Charles Edward (Liberal Democrat)
RUSH, Becky (Conservative)
SNOWDEN, Michael (Labour)

2017: Con 2265; LD 1165; UKIP 403; Lab 193
2013: Con 1444; UKIP 1075; LD 743; Lab 146.

The Lib Dem candidate stood here in 2017 and the UKIP one in 2013, making two former runners up for the division standing.

[casualobserver]

One further poll on January 31st:

CITY OF LONDON: Aldermanic Election Billingsgate Ward

Six candidates have had their nomination papers accepted, but the deadline for withdrawals has not yet passed [electoral law is a bit different in the City of London!]

www.cityoflondon.gov.uk/about-the-city/voting-elections/Documents/billingsgate-sopn.pdf

This election has been caused by the resignation of Matthew Richardson, elected twice as an Independent as is usually the case in the City, especially in Aldermanic elections. Even the Alderman for Bishopsgate Ward, Baroness Scotland, the Commonwealth Secretary-General and former Labour Attorney General, is technically an Independent in the City. The interesting thing is that Richardson was also, whilst an Independent Alderman, UKIP's national General Secretary and in this election there are, at present, 5 'traditional' Independent candidates and one from the SDP. Whilst no-one would expect the SDP candidate to win on a hard anti-EU platform in a City election, they may attract a solid minority vote which, in a six way split, may end up producing a respectable looking result. This is a ward heavily influenced by the Insurance industry and there are a couple of well-known candidates from that sector who should break away from the pack of other candidates. If the SDP candidate @bergdahljp is receiving active assistance from Richardson, that will worry the other candidates.

Just for the benefit of David Boothroyd III (whom I acknowledge as someone who respects the technicalities of elections and always likes to get things right) I must point out that, legally, election day is 30th January. Were there to be only one candidate that person would be declared elected at the Wardmote on the 30th. In this case there almost certainly will, however, be a poll and that will take place on January 31st, the day after election day.

[ElectionMapsUK]

Is there any vote totals for the previous Billingsgate Aldermanic alection? I can't find any...

[finsobruce]

Jan 11, 2019 0:00:17 GMT ElectionMapsUK said:

Is there any vote totals for the previous Billingsgate Aldermanic alection? I can't find any...

Fishy.

[casualobserver]

Jan 11, 2019 0:00:17 GMT ElectionMapsUK said:

Is there any vote totals for the previous Billingsgate Aldermanic alection? I can't find any...

Richardson’s opponent was ‘persuaded’ to withdraw in disputed circumstances leaving Richardson unopposed six years ago

[finsobruce]

Jan 12, 2019 22:38:41 GMT casualobserver said:

Jan 11, 2019 0:00:17 GMT ElectionMapsUK said:

Is there any vote totals for the previous Billingsgate Aldermanic alection? I can't find any...

Richardson’s opponent was ‘persuaded’ to withdraw in disputed circumstances leaving Richardson unopposed six years ago

definitely fishy then.

[bigfatron]

The Surrey CC ward is the one that I live in, so I will do a brief write up nearer election day...

[finsobruce]

Jan 13, 2019 22:28:06 GMT bigfatron said:

The Surrey CC ward is the one that I live in, so I will do a brief write up nearer election day...

Look forward to that. It'll be the second recent by election in a ward with a  resident regular Vote UK contributor.

I wonder how often this happens? My ward has had a by election since I've been contributing.

[bigfatron]

The Warlingham ward of Surrey County Council is tucked in the north-east corner of the county, adjacent to Croydon to the north and Kent (specifically the airport of Biggin Hill) to the east.

It comprises four district wards forming part of Tandridge District Council: Warlingham West (2 members); Warlingham East, Chelsham & Farleigh (3 members); Tatsfield & Titsey (1 member); and Woldingham (1 member).

Warlingham is a large village of around four to five thousand souls, separated from the furthest reaches of London by a belt of fields about a mile across; it has a real village feel about it, with two pubs, three restaurants, an award winning fish and chip shop, as well as a highly rated junior school and a thriving village hall. The village centre sits on the top of the North Downs, but Warlingham West ward reaches down into the Caterham valley, where the bizarrely-named Upper Warlingham station serves the village with trains to Croydon, London and recently Bedford via Thameslink. It is a heavy commuting area – the 7:42 from Upper Warlingham to London Bridge being the fourth most crowded train in the UK timetable last year!

Chelsham, Farleigh, Tatsfield and Titsey are all small village communities, although Chelsham includes the Great Park development of new builds that also includes the junior school that serves these villages.

Woldingham is unusual; one of the richest places in the UK (in the 2001 census 17% of its residents were cash millionaires, the highest proportion of any UK postcode), it is a ‘garden village’ constructed at the turn of the last century. Most houses were built on plots of ½ acre or more, and are generally worth well in excess of £1 million, although there are some terraced ‘artisan cottages’ in the centre that are a mere five hundred grand each. Quaker built, the village has no pub; residents are generally members of the ample sports and social club or one of its two golf courses, which stand in for the more mundane but absent public house. The village boasts Katie Price amongst its famous residents…

The County Council ward has long been represented by David Hodge, who has been the leader of the Conservative administration for the last eight years. He made national headlines in 2017 when Jeremy Corbyn revealed details of the alleged offer of a ‘sweetheart deal’ from the government to Hodge to persuade him to drop a local referendum on a proposed 15% council tax rise.

Surrey County Council has a reputation for high levels of administrative spending, but has also seen extensive cuts to services such as libraries, tips, schools and social care. Discontent with the council’s performance has been growing, and is made worse locally by a belief that – despite being represented by the Leader of the Council - the east of the county has been neglected in favour of the west, where the bulk of the large towns, voters and the council offices are sited.

In Warlingham this manifests through issues such as the library, the tip (which the Council rebuilt two years ago but are now trying to shut against vocal opposition; opening days have reduced from six to four and now three days a week) and the local junior school, which the council – against the issues of parents and teachers - want to relocate to a greenfield site on the western edge of the village.

In contrast the local parish council is LibDem run and has a decent reputation locally, for example providing funds and organising volunteers to keep the library open.

Also causing concern are the issues of the extensive building of old people’s homes and flats in place of properties for families and first time buyers (capacity for over five hundred additional elderly residents has been added in the last three years) and planning blight on the village centre (the last bank has closed and the building lies empty, and the village’s second garage has been derelict for two years due to a planning dispute relating to the building of yet more retirement flats).

The County seat has been Tory pretty much in perpetuity. In 2013 Hodge has a 369 vote majority over UKIP, who were quite strong locally for a few years. In 2017 his majority rose to 1,000, with the LibDems in second place. The results were:
2013 2017
Tory 1,444 2,265
Lib Dem 743 1,265
UKIP 1,075 403
Labour 146 193

The four constituent district wards tell a slightly different story. Tandridge delivered one of the more surprising results of the 2018 local elections, with the Tories losing 9 seats, three each to Lib Dems, Residents and Independents, and dropping from 13 seats to just four. They still retain control of the council, but only because of their overwhelming victory in 2015 when they took 12 out of 14 seats available.

Warlingham West has been solidly Tory for years, although the Lib Dems have always been in second place. It has not been a target for the Lib Dems, as they have focused on the more winnable but marginal adjacent wards: Warlingham East, Whyteleafe, and Caterham Valley, all of which are now represented by Lib Dems.
Recent results for Warlingham West are:
2016 2016 B/E 2018
Tory 593 367 654
Lib Dem 218 218 286
UKIP 82 64 42
Labour 144 70

Warlingham East, Chelsham & Farleigh is a large three member ward; it has generally been a battleground between Tory and LibDem, often going Tory when the locals coincide with a General Election but otherwise electing Lib Dems. The councillor elected for the Lib Dems in 2016 has since sat an independent, being a staunch Brexiteer, but still works closely with the Lib Dems on local issues.

Recent results for Warlingham East are:
2015 2016 2018
Tory 1,401 471 590
Lib Dem 750 853 833
UKIP 649 329 141
Labour 258 106 120

Tatsfield & Titsey is a small one member ward, with a strong independent tradition; the most recent election result is:
2015
Tory 339
Labour 59
Independent 776

Woldingham is, not surprisingly, a staunchly Tory ward that other parties don’t really contest; the latest result is:
2016
Tory 367
Lib Dem 36
UKIP 75
Labour 34

Expectations:

All candidates live in the ward – no carpet-baggers here!

The Conservatives have a strong and locally known candidate in Becky Rush; it is hard to judge how much of Hodge’s vote was personal, but she is well-chosen to present the fresher face that is needed.

UKIP were once a force here and their perennial candidate, Martin Haley, stands again, but that horse has long bolted; Labour, too, are likely to struggle and Michael Snowden is not well known in the area.

Charles Lister, the Lib Dem candidate, stood and came second for the same division in 2017 and is well-known in Warlingham as a member of the parish council.

In Warlingham local issues will be a real and significant factor – the proposed closure of the dump is a massive sore spot, the proposed move of Warlingham school has been met with petitions and campaigns from parents, and both the country and district councils are genuinely pretty unpopular, even amongst Tory-leaning voters.

The local LibDems are also quite well organised and resourced; the first leaflet is already delivered. In contrast there is no sign of a campaign from any other party. One senses that the Lib Dems feel there is an outside chance of an upset here.

Much will depend on how the Independent vote in Tatsfield splits, and just how angry Warlingham voters really are about the school and the dump.

I would still predict a Tory win, but on a much reduced majority; I expect their strength in Woldingham and Tatsfield to overturn a marginal Lib Dem lead in Warlingham proper.

[bigfatron]

Apologioes for my failure to format the tables properly in the above!

[sirbenjamin]

Thanks for the insightful preview, bigfatron

Living in the adjacent CC ward, I personally don't rate our chances of holding on here any better than 50/50. Spending and Council tax is indeed way, way too high, and I still haven't worked out quite why this should be the case. We're supposed to be Tories.

Firstly, this is Surrey. It's one of the least deprived counties and there aren't going to be many people who don't pay council tax, or who indeed are massive net drains on council resources.

Secondly, this is Surrey. There are big houses all over the place, in the upper council tax bands, which brings in more money.

Thirdly, this is fucking Surrey. It's not like there are huge infrastructure programmes transforming the place. Things don't change much, for a reason.

With not very much to show for it, the only obvious conclusion (beyond corruption/theft/misappropriation type stuff) is that there is a lack of basic competency and Surrey CC has been getting very poor value and/or low productivity from staff for years, and passed those 'anti-savings' on to the council tax payer. Can't they look at Wandsworth and see how a Tory authority is supposed to be run?!?

[iain]

Jan 23, 2019 16:04:11 GMT sirbenjamin said:

Thanks for the insightful preview, bigfatron

Living in the adjacent CC ward, I personally don't rate our chances of holding on here any better than 50/50. Spending and Council tax is indeed way, way too high, and I still haven't worked out quite why this should be the case. We're supposed to be Tories.

Firstly, this is Surrey. It's one of the least deprived counties and there aren't going to be many people who don't pay council tax, or who indeed are massive net drains on council resources.

Secondly, this is Surrey. There are big houses all over the place, in the upper council tax bands, which brings in more money.

Thirdly, this is fucking Surrey. It's not like there are huge infrastructure programmes transforming the place. Things don't change much, for a reason.

With not very much to show for it, the only obvious conclusion (beyond corruption/theft/misappropriation type stuff) is that there is a lack of basic competency and Surrey CC has been getting very poor value and/or low productivity from staff for years, and passed those 'anti-savings' on to the council tax payer. Can't they look at Wandsworth and see how a Tory authority is supposed to be run?!?

Surrey is also full of old people, who are by far the biggest drain on Council resources.

[sirbenjamin]

Jan 23, 2019 16:22:08 GMT iain said:

Jan 23, 2019 16:04:11 GMT sirbenjamin said:

Thanks for the insightful preview, bigfatron

Living in the adjacent CC ward, I personally don't rate our chances of holding on here any better than 50/50. Spending and Council tax is indeed way, way too high, and I still haven't worked out quite why this should be the case. We're supposed to be Tories.

Firstly, this is Surrey. It's one of the least deprived counties and there aren't going to be many people who don't pay council tax, or who indeed are massive net drains on council resources.

Secondly, this is Surrey. There are big houses all over the place, in the upper council tax bands, which brings in more money.

Thirdly, this is fucking Surrey. It's not like there are huge infrastructure programmes transforming the place. Things don't change much, for a reason.

With not very much to show for it, the only obvious conclusion (beyond corruption/theft/misappropriation type stuff) is that there is a lack of basic competency and Surrey CC has been getting very poor value and/or low productivity from staff for years, and passed those 'anti-savings' on to the council tax payer. Can't they look at Wandsworth and see how a Tory authority is supposed to be run?!?

Surrey is also full of old people, who are by far the biggest drain on Council resources.

But I don't think Surrey is particularly 'old'. Older than Greater London, obviously, but probably roughly in line with the national average. This isn't a Dorset or a Devon. I suspect places like Essex, Suffolk, Norfolk, Lincs are all older too.

[bigfatron]

I believe East Sussex holds the county record for 'old'-ness... certainly Surrey isn't very far from the national average.
It's just a badly run council, it seems to me.

[sirbenjamin]

Jan 23, 2019 19:45:42 GMT bigfatron said:

I believe East Sussex holds the county record for 'old'-ness... certainly Surrey isn't very far from the national average.
It's just a badly run council, it seems to me.

I looked it up. National average age is now 40. Surrey is 39 so actually slightly younger. Depressingly, I'm older than both.

East Sussex 42.2

Suffolk 42.9

West Sussex 43

Dorset 44.1

London 36.5 bloody whippersnappers who deserve a good hiding.

[timrollpickering]

Jan 20, 2019 13:29:11 GMT bigfatron said:

...the bizarrely-named Upper Warlingham station

Whyteleafe South used to be called Warlingham so the Upper prefix was used to distinguish this one and the name was never changed.

[rr]

Jan 23, 2019 16:31:34 GMT sirbenjamin said:

Jan 23, 2019 16:22:08 GMT iain said:

Surrey is also full of old people, who are by far the biggest drain on Council resources.

But I don't think Surrey is particularly 'old'. Older than Greater London, obviously, but probably roughly in line with the national average. This isn't a Dorset or a Devon. I suspect places like Essex, Suffolk, Norfolk, Lincs are all older too.

But the cost of providing (e.g. social care) in Surrey is way higher than in those other places. Staff have to be paid more, property costs more, maintenance and repairs all cost more.

We have a problem as a country in that we lavish public money on relatively wealthy older people. In other countries families are expected to look after their elderly etc.

Also not sure Surrey lacks infrastructure spending. It is flanked by two of our biggest airports and the M25, M3 and M23 run through it. The SCC roads are extremely heavily used by commuters.

I think we also need to be honest that the people who live in £5 million houses in (say) Oxshott get off very lightly with our level of Band H property taxes. Most other countries (including that citadel of socialism, the USA) have much higher levels of such taxation which can ensure public services are maintained to a high standard in "rich" areas.

[yellowperil]

Jan 27, 2019 12:43:32 GMT rr said:

Jan 23, 2019 16:31:34 GMT sirbenjamin said:

But I don't think Surrey is particularly 'old'. Older than Greater London, obviously, but probably roughly in line with the national average. This isn't a Dorset or a Devon. I suspect places like Essex, Suffolk, Norfolk, Lincs are all older too.

But the cost of providing (e.g. social care) in Surrey is way higher than in those other places. Staff have to be paid more, property costs more, maintenance and repairs all cost more.

We have a problem as a country in that we lavish public money on relatively wealthy older people. In other countries families are expected to look after their elderly etc.

Also not sure Surrey lacks infrastructure spending. It is flanked by two of our biggest airports and the M25, M3 and M23 run through it. The SCC roads are extremely heavily used by commuters.

I think we also need to be honest that the people who live in £5 million houses in (say) Oxshott get off very lightly with our level of Band H property taxes. Most other countries (including that citadel of socialism, the USA) have much higher levels of such taxation which can ensure public services are maintained to a high standard in "rich" areas.

I like some of what you say here, but find some of it a bit more questionable. Agreed that Surrey's problem is not that its population is that much older than average, but the costs of looking after that aging population is increased by generally high living standards in the area, so higher than average wage rates and especially much higher than average property rates. Agreed too that council taxes in this country generally are kept artificially low at the top end of the range- nobody has been prepared to grasp the nettle  and either change council tax to a more reasonable alternative, or at the very least update the banding to something more appropriate.

I am a lot more dubious  about two things:
1. The big infrastructure projects that happen to lie in Surrey, mostly related to the airports and key motorways, are grossly under strain, and the rail network is pretty poor and local roads substandard, because of the strain put on them by needs which are national rather than local. So the infrastructure spending is about meeting national rather than local needs.
2. The claims that "other countries" (unspecified ) in general do much better at looking after the elderly and don't "lavish public money on relatively wealthy elderly people". My feeling is that this is a problem pretty universally shared by most first world countries and while some countries may do better than Britain, some do worse. I was wondering which countries you had in mind? I also feel some countries relying on family interventions then are much worse at dealing with those cases which slip through the net.

[bigfatron]

Horrible weather here, now and forecast for tomorrow. Can't see much in the way of turnout.
Local Lib Dems are expecting to lose, but by less than last time (roughly 60% to 32%)

[timmullen1]

Andrew’s Preview of the contest: britainelects.com/2019/01/29/previews-31-jan-2019/